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TCU 23, Kansas 17: Horned Frogs played with fire, barely survived

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

tcukanwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

118

TCU

1

20

23

3

Bram Kohlhausen Pass INTERCEPTED

0.667

-0.147

2

81

Kansas

2

13

91

2

Ryan Willis Pass to Steven Sims, Jr. for 40, FIRST DOWN

0.618

-0.138

3

165

TCU

2

5

42

4

Foster Sawyer Pass to Shaun Nixon for 42, TOUCHDOWN

0.809

0.131

4

205

Kansas

1

10

52

4

Ryan Willis Pass INTERCEPTED

0.792

0.117

5

189

Kansas

4

5

10

4

Ryan Willis Pass to Tyler Patrick for 10, TOUCHDOWN

0.958

-0.109

TCU 23, Kansas 17

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Kansas TCU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 71 92
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 22.4 30.3 29.7
Possessions 16 16
Scoring Opportunities*
3 8
Points Per Opportunity 5.67 2.00 4.73
Leverage Rate** 59.2% 72.8% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.501 0.572 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Kansas TCU
Total 27.6 43.5
Rushing 11.2 25.5
Passing 16.4 18.0
Success Rate (what's this?) Kansas TCU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 28.2% 45.7% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 25.9% 50.9% 42.7%
Passing (close) 29.6% 37.8% 40.7%
Standard Downs 31.0% 53.7% 46.9%
Passing Downs 24.1% 24.0% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Kansas TCU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.38 1.04 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.60 0.91 1.07
Passing (close) 1.26 1.29 1.48
Standard Downs 1.12 1.02 1.11
Passing Downs 1.85 1.15 1.77
Line Stats Kansas TCU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.83 3.26 2.88
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 4.4% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 13.6% 14.3% 7.6%
Turnovers Kansas TCU
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 3.3 5.1
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin TCU +0.81
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Kansas +0.81
TO Points Margin Kansas +1.8 points
Situational Kansas TCU
Q1 S&P 0.569 0.458
Q2 S&P 0.581 0.657
Q3 S&P 0.307 0.633
Q4 S&P 0.488 0.692
1st Down S&P 0.506 0.641
2nd Down S&P 0.372 0.611
3rd Down S&P 0.629 0.606
Projected Scoring Margin: TCU by 14.1
Actual Scoring Margin: TCU by 6

Meanwhile ... we're still due a small handful of massive, "they had less than a 10% chance..." upsets at some point. This is your moment, Syracuse.

For a while there, it looked like I had chosen the wrong random blowout game to joke about there. TCU was given a 99.1% chance of beating Kansas, but Trevone Boykin got hurt, and things got weird for a bit.

This game came down to finishing. Teams that create five more scoring opportunities than their opponent have won 98.5% of games this season, by an average margin of 28.4 points. But TCU's eight scoring chances produced a touchdown, three field goals, two turnovers on downs, and an INT, plus the victory formation on the final possession. Even ignoring that last one, that's some staggering failure right there.

Meanwhile, Kansas was mostly awful offensively -- at one point, the Jayhawks went three-and-out on six straight possessions -- but packed most of their successful plays into three drives and got points out of all three. Cluster luck was on KU's side, as was injury luck. And in the end, TCU survived in part because of a punt return score that didn't involve the offense.