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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
118 |
TCU |
1 |
20 |
23 |
3 |
Bram Kohlhausen Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.667 |
-0.147 |
|
2 |
81 |
Kansas |
2 |
13 |
91 |
2 |
Ryan Willis Pass to Steven Sims, Jr. for 40, FIRST DOWN |
0.618 |
-0.138 |
|
3 |
165 |
TCU |
2 |
5 |
42 |
4 |
Foster Sawyer Pass to Shaun Nixon for 42, TOUCHDOWN |
0.809 |
0.131 |
|
4 |
205 |
Kansas |
1 |
10 |
52 |
4 |
Ryan Willis Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.792 |
0.117 |
|
5 |
189 |
Kansas |
4 |
5 |
10 |
4 |
Ryan Willis Pass to Tyler Patrick for 10, TOUCHDOWN |
0.958 |
-0.109 |
TCU 23, Kansas 17
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Kansas | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 71 | 92 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 22.4 | 30.3 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 16 | 16 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
3 | 8 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.67 | 2.00 | 4.73 |
| Leverage Rate** | 59.2% | 72.8% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.501 | 0.572 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Kansas | TCU | |
| Total | 27.6 | 43.5 | |
| Rushing | 11.2 | 25.5 | |
| Passing | 16.4 | 18.0 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Kansas | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 28.2% | 45.7% | 41.7% |
| Rushing (close) | 25.9% | 50.9% | 42.7% |
| Passing (close) | 29.6% | 37.8% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 31.0% | 53.7% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 24.1% | 24.0% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Kansas | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.38 | 1.04 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.60 | 0.91 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.26 | 1.29 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 1.12 | 1.02 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.85 | 1.15 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Kansas | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.83 | 3.26 | 2.88 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 13.6% | 14.3% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Kansas | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | TCU +0.81 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Kansas +0.81 | |
| TO Points Margin | Kansas +1.8 points | |
| Situational | Kansas | TCU |
| Q1 S&P | 0.569 | 0.458 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.581 | 0.657 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.307 | 0.633 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.488 | 0.692 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.506 | 0.641 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.372 | 0.611 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.629 | 0.606 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: TCU by 14.1 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: TCU by 6 | ||
Meanwhile ... we're still due a small handful of massive, "they had less than a 10% chance..." upsets at some point. This is your moment, Syracuse.
For a while there, it looked like I had chosen the wrong random blowout game to joke about there. TCU was given a 99.1% chance of beating Kansas, but Trevone Boykin got hurt, and things got weird for a bit.
This game came down to finishing. Teams that create five more scoring opportunities than their opponent have won 98.5% of games this season, by an average margin of 28.4 points. But TCU's eight scoring chances produced a touchdown, three field goals, two turnovers on downs, and an INT, plus the victory formation on the final possession. Even ignoring that last one, that's some staggering failure right there.
Meanwhile, Kansas was mostly awful offensively -- at one point, the Jayhawks went three-and-out on six straight possessions -- but packed most of their successful plays into three drives and got points out of all three. Cluster luck was on KU's side, as was injury luck. And in the end, TCU survived in part because of a punt return score that didn't involve the offense.