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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
71 |
Alabama |
3 |
5 |
60 |
2 |
Jake Coker Pass to Calvin Ridley for 60, TOUCHDOWN |
0.308 |
-0.172 |
|
2 |
87 |
Alabama |
3 |
9 |
74 |
2 |
Derrick Henry Rush for 74, TOUCHDOWN |
0.199 |
-0.146 |
|
3 |
62 |
Mississippi State |
4 |
7 |
65 |
2 |
PUNT |
0.491 |
-0.136 |
|
4 |
8 |
Mississippi State |
4 |
18 |
70 |
1 |
PUNT |
0.443 |
0.127 |
|
5 |
42 |
Mississippi State |
2 |
10 |
58 |
1 |
Ashton Shumpert Rush for 5, FUMBLE |
0.591 |
-0.126 |
Alabama 31, Mississippi State 6
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Alabama | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 55 | 87 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 78.2% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 31.5 | 23.7 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 13 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.00 | 1.20 | 4.73 |
| Leverage Rate** | 64.9% | 59.5% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.614 | 0.510 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Alabama | Mississippi State | |
| Total | 35.5 | 33.0 | |
| Rushing | 22.1 | 11.9 | |
| Passing | 13.4 | 21.1 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Alabama | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 40.5% | 29.7% | 41.7% |
| Rushing (close) | 50.0% | 30.8% | 42.7% |
| Passing (close) | 33.3% | 29.2% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 50.0% | 38.6% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 23.1% | 16.7% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Alabama | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.45 | 1.36 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.59 | 1.44 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 0.48 | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 5.31 | 2.00 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Alabama | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.74 | 2.97 | 2.88 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 14.8% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 23.8% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Alabama | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 1.3 | 9.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Alabama +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Alabama +3.07 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Mississippi State +2.07 | |
| TO Points Margin | Alabama +7.8 points | |
| Situational | Alabama | Mississippi State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.375 | 0.576 |
| Q2 S&P | 1.230 | 0.452 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.544 | 0.586 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.699 | 0.427 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.694 | 0.560 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.494 | 0.468 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.699 | 0.484 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 10.3 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 25 | ||
Man oh man, did MSU have chances early. Bama went three-and-out four times and threw a pick in its first five possessions, and the Bulldogs advanced into Bama territory twice, once getting to the 2. When those trips ended with zero points ... yeah, you kinda knew what was happening next.
Weird game, though. MSU ran 32 more plays because of a punt return score and two lightning-fast Bama scoring drives, so that screwed up the raw stats. Then you had turnovers, which were controlled by Bama ... but should have been even more in Bama's favor -- Bama had 1 INT to 7 PBUs, MSU had 1 INT to 0 PBUs.