clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Alabama 31, Mississippi State 6: Tide started slowly, then laid the hammer down

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

msstalawp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

71

Alabama

3

5

60

2

Jake Coker Pass to Calvin Ridley for 60, TOUCHDOWN

0.308

-0.172

2

87

Alabama

3

9

74

2

Derrick Henry Rush for 74, TOUCHDOWN

0.199

-0.146

3

62

Mississippi State

4

7

65

2

PUNT

0.491

-0.136

4

8

Mississippi State

4

18

70

1

PUNT

0.443

0.127

5

42

Mississippi State

2

10

58

1

Ashton Shumpert Rush for 5, FUMBLE

0.591

-0.126

Alabama 31, Mississippi State 6

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Alabama Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 55 87
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 78.2%
Avg Starting FP 31.5 23.7 29.7
Possessions 13 14
Scoring Opportunities*
6 5
Points Per Opportunity 4.00 1.20 4.73
Leverage Rate** 64.9% 59.5% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.614 0.510 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Alabama Mississippi State
Total 35.5 33.0
Rushing 22.1 11.9
Passing 13.4 21.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Alabama Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 40.5% 29.7% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 50.0% 30.8% 42.7%
Passing (close) 33.3% 29.2% 40.7%
Standard Downs 50.0% 38.6% 46.9%
Passing Downs 23.1% 16.7% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Alabama Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.45 1.36 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.33 1.22 1.07
Passing (close) 1.59 1.44 1.48
Standard Downs 0.48 1.18 1.11
Passing Downs 5.31 2.00 1.77
Line Stats Alabama Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.74 2.97 2.88
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 14.8% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 23.8% 7.6%
Turnovers Alabama Mississippi State
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 1.3 9.0
Turnover Margin Alabama +1
Exp. TO Margin Alabama +3.07
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Mississippi State +2.07
TO Points Margin Alabama +7.8 points
Situational Alabama Mississippi State
Q1 S&P 0.375 0.576
Q2 S&P 1.230 0.452
Q3 S&P 0.544 0.586
Q4 S&P 0.699 0.427
1st Down S&P 0.694 0.560
2nd Down S&P 0.494 0.468
3rd Down S&P 0.699 0.484
Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 10.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 25

Man oh man, did MSU have chances early. Bama went three-and-out four times and threw a pick in its first five possessions, and the Bulldogs advanced into Bama territory twice, once getting to the 2. When those trips ended with zero points ... yeah, you kinda knew what was happening next.

Weird game, though. MSU ran 32 more plays because of a punt return score and two lightning-fast Bama scoring drives, so that screwed up the raw stats. Then you had turnovers, which were controlled by Bama ... but should have been even more in Bama's favor -- Bama had 1 INT to 7 PBUs, MSU had 1 INT to 0 PBUs.