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Top 5 Plays
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
1 |
176 |
USC |
2 |
11 |
28 |
4 |
Team Kneeldown |
0.229 |
-0.229 |
2 |
154 |
Colorado |
2 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
Cade Apsay Pass to George Frazier for 1, TOUCHDOWN |
0.198 |
0.177 |
3 |
133 |
Colorado |
4 |
9 |
34 |
4 |
FIELD_GOAL |
0.428 |
-0.174 |
4 |
116 |
Colorado |
1 |
10 |
63 |
3 |
Christian Powell Rush for -3, FUMBLE |
0.760 |
-0.161 |
5 |
134 |
USC |
1 |
10 |
36 |
4 |
Cody Kessler Pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 36, TOUCHDOWN |
0.254 |
-0.157 |
USC 27, Colorado 24
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
Basics | Colorado | USC | Nat'l Avg |
---|---|---|---|
Total Plays | 67 | 64 | |
Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
Avg Starting FP | 38.6 | 31.4 | 29.7 |
Possessions | 11 | 12 | |
Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 6 | |
Points Per Opportunity | 4.00 | 4.50 | 4.73 |
Leverage Rate** | 68.7% | 75.0% | 68.1% |
Close S&P*** | 0.535 | 0.579 | 0.586 |
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
EqPts (what's this?) | Colorado | USC | |
Total | 25.6 | 31.3 | |
Rushing | 10.1 | 13.7 | |
Passing | 15.4 | 17.6 | |
Success Rate (what's this?) | Colorado | USC | Nat'l Avg |
All (close) | 46.3% | 45.3% | 41.7% |
Rushing (close) | 43.3% | 40.0% | 42.7% |
Passing (close) | 48.7% | 51.7% | 40.7% |
Standard Downs | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% |
Passing Downs | 38.1% | 31.3% | 30.5% |
IsoPPP (what's this?) | Colorado | USC | Nat'l Avg |
All (close) | 0.83 | 1.08 | 1.26 |
Rushing (close) | 0.78 | 0.98 | 1.07 |
Passing (close) | 0.86 | 1.17 | 1.48 |
Standard Downs | 0.83 | 1.12 | 1.11 |
Passing Downs | 0.82 | 0.89 | 1.77 |
Line Stats | Colorado | USC | Nat'l Avg |
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.54 | 2.83 | 2.88 |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 22.2% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 10.5% | 22.2% | 7.6% |
Turnovers | Colorado | USC |
---|---|---|
Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Turnover Points (what's this?) | 4.1 | 4.8 |
Turnover Margin | +0 | |
Exp. TO Margin | Colorado +0.66 | |
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | USC +0.66 | |
TO Points Margin | Colorado +0.7 points | |
Situational | Colorado | USC |
Q1 S&P | 0.701 | 0.599 |
Q2 S&P | 0.554 | 0.515 |
Q3 S&P | 0.485 | 0.721 |
Q4 S&P | 0.380 | 0.681 |
1st Down S&P | 0.536 | 0.575 |
2nd Down S&P | 0.614 | 0.678 |
3rd Down S&P | 0.495 | 0.499 |
Projected Scoring Margin: USC by 5.1 | ||
Actual Scoring Margin: USC by 3 |
The USC Trojans have trailed in the beginning of every game since Clay Helton took over. This game, against a team that was just blown out by Stanford, they were down by as many as 14 and trailed by 11 at the half.
Colorado won the field position battle, aided by a big kick return and a punt return by Nelson Spruce that put the ball at the USC 2. Since Helton has taken over, SC has given up a big punt or kick return in every game except the Cal game. You play with fire doing that, and it makes it very difficult to win games when you lose the field position battle.
Formations/Basics
USC | Colorado | |||
Backs-Wide | % of Plays | Yds/Play | % of Plays | Yds/Play |
0 backs, 5 wide | 6.0% | 2.8 | ||
1 back, 2 wide | 12.9% | 8.8 | 28.4% | 3.3 |
1 back, 3 wide | 45.2% | 4.8 | 32.8% | 4.7 |
1 back, 4 wide | 11.3% | 3.7 | 17.9% | 2.4 |
2 backs, 0 wide | 4.5% | 1.3 | ||
2 backs, 2 wide | 24.2% | 3.9 | 9.0% | 10.5 |
2 backs, 3 wide | 6.5% | 12.0 | 1.5% | 9.0 |
No Huddle? | % of Plays | Yds/Play |
USC | 100.0% | 5.4 |
Colorado | 100.0% | 4.2 |
USC | Colorado | |||
Hash | % of Plays | Yds/Play | % of Plays | Yds/Play |
Left | 25.8% | 5.0 | 35.8% | 5.1 |
Middle | 9.7% | 8.3 | 28.4% | 1.4 |
Right | 64.5% | 5.2 | 35.8% | 5.5 |
Whereas Sarkisian's USC teams were highly explosive, Helton's team has tended to lean more toward the efficiency spectrum. Only one play went for more than 30 yards: the TD pass to Juju Smith-Schuster. He has also changed the offense to be obviously run-heavy with every game aside from Notre Dame featuring more runs than passes.
Passing
USC | Colorado | |||||
Passing | Comp Rt | Yds/Pass | Passing | Comp Rt | Yds/Pass | |
Behind Line | 3-3, 24 yards | 100.0% | 8.0 | 5-5, 15 yards | 100.0% | 3.0 |
0 to 4 | 5-6, 26 yards | 83.3% | 4.3 | 7-8, 47 yards | 87.5% | 5.9 |
5 to 9 | 4-7, 68 yards | 57.1% | 9.7 | 8-8, 72 yards | 100.0% | 9.0 |
10 to 19 | 4-8, 50 yards | 50.0% | 6.3 | 1-2, 12 yards | 50.0% | 6.0 |
20 to 29 | 0-1, 0 yards | 0.0% | 0.0 | 2-5, 40 yards | 40.0% | 8.0 |
30-plus | 1-2, 36 yards | 50.0% | 18.0 | 1-3, 36 yards | 33.3% | 12.0 |
USC | Colorado | |
% Blitz: | 41.4% | 50.0% |
Avg. Rushers | 4.6 | 4.5 |
Passing (no blitz) | 11-17, 126 yards, 0 sacks, 7.4 yds. per att. | 13-16, 100 yards, 2 sacks, 5.6 yds. per att. |
Passing (blitz) | 6-10, 78 yards, 2 sacks, 6.5 yds. per att. | 10-14, 121 yards, 4 sacks, 6.7 yds. per att. |
Reason for INC/INT | USC | Colorado |
QB Fault | 5 | 3 |
Good Defense | 2 | 1 |
WR Fault | 2 | 2 |
The best thing about the Helton era (although the defense is still led by Justin Wilcox) is the improved pressure they've been getting on the QB. With six more sacks this week they've recorded multiple sacks in every game aside from the Cal game and 12 in two weeks.
Rushing
USC | Colorado | |||
Rush-Yds | YPC | Rush-Yds | YPC | |
To Edge | 10-65 | 6.5 | 4-21 | 5.3 |
Toward Tackle | 15-44 | 2.9 | 9-44 | 4.9 |
Up Middle | 5-22 | 4.4 | 14-24 | 1.7 |
Justin Davis was the star of the run game this week, as Ronald Jones II struggled for the first time in his career. Davis was efficient if not terribly explosive, and it was evident Colorado wanted no business of giving Jones room to hit the 2nd level.
QB Activity
USC | Colorado | |||||
QB Move | Rushes-Yds | Passes-Yds | Sacks-Yds | Rushes-Yds | Passes-Yds | Sacks-Yds |
Rollout | 1-9 | 1-1 | ||||
Option - zone read | 2-2 | |||||
QB Draw | 1-9 | |||||
Sack - in pocket | 1-(-6) | 5-(-33) | ||||
Sack - QB fault | 1-(-8) |
Cody Kessler took two more sacks on third down, which is happening way too often. There is some higher probability in that since USC has been getting into too many passing downs, but still, other than a turnover that is the worst possible result for the quarterback.
OK, so I ran through the numbers ... Cody Kessler has been sacked 25 times this season. Fourteen have come on third downs. #USC
— Adam Maya (@AdamJMaya) November 14, 2015