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Week 11 S&P+ picks

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Woohoo, an almost perfect week -- S&P+ did well against the spread, AND the win probabilities fell in line at least a bit.

S&P+ against the spread

  • Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
  • Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
  • Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
  • Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
  • Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
  • Week 8: 33-21-1 (61%)
  • Week 9: 25-26-1 (49%)
  • Week 10: 31-26-2 (54%)
  • OVERALL: 265-252-7 (51%)

Glass half-empty: S&P+ is 2 games under .500 ATS over the last six weeks.

Glass half-full: S&P+ is 16 games over .500 ATS over the last three weeks.

I've always been a glass-half-full kinda guy...

Win probabilities

Win Prob. Range Last Week Overall Win%
50-59% 5-6 55-52 51.4%
60-69% 5-7 85-37 69.7%
70-79% 10-4 109-20 84.5%
80-89% 16-2 114-22 83.8%
90-99% 5-0 134-3 97.8%

I'm never going to complain about doing too well picking games straight-up, but all season, teams that were in that 60-99% range, and especially in the 70-99% range, have been doing a little too well. We saw a little bit of a course correction in that 60-79% range last week, which is probably good. Meanwhile ... we're still due a small handful of massive, "they had less than a 10% chance..." upsets at some point. This is your moment, Syracuse.

Tuesday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPNU Kent State at Ohio -7 Ohio (29.3-14.6) 14.7 80.2% Ohio
8:00 PM ESPN2 Toledo at Central Michigan +3 Toledo (27.1-24.2) 2.9 56.7% Central Michigan

Wednesday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPN2 Bowling Green at Western Michigan +2.5 Bowling Green (37.0-33.0) 3.9 59.0% Bowling Green
8:00 PM ESPNU Northern Illinois at Buffalo +7 Northern Illinois (29.6-24.1) 5.5 62.5% Buffalo

Thursday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
7:30 PM ESPNU UL-Lafayette at South Alabama -3 South Alabama (30.7-29.8) 0.9 52.2% UL-Lafayette
7:30 PM ESPN Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech -3.5 Georgia Tech (27.7-26.5) 1.2 52.8% Virginia Tech

Friday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
9:00 PM ESPN2 USC at Colorado +16.5 USC (41.1-21.1) 20.0 87.6% USC

Saturday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
12:00 PM ESPN3 Akron at Miami-OH +7 Akron (29.0-19.7) 9.3 70.5% Akron
12:00 PM ESPN Florida at South Carolina +7.5 Florida (35.0-18.7) 16.2 82.6% Florida
12:00 PM CBS Georgia at Auburn -2 Georgia (28.2-25.8) 2.4 55.5% Georgia
12:00 PM FS1 Kansas at TCU -45 TCU (54.2-13.5) 40.7 99.1% Kansas
12:00 PM ESPN2 Maryland at Michigan State -15 Michigan State (34.3-20.7) 13.6 78.5% Maryland
12:00 PM Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic +5.5 Florida Atlantic (29.4-28.6) 0.8 51.9% Florida Atlantic
12:00 PM SECN North Texas at Tennessee -41 Tennessee (48.5-9.8) 38.7 98.7% North Texas
12:00 PM ABC Ohio State at Illinois +16 Ohio State (29.4-20.1) 9.4 70.6% Illinois
12:00 PM ESPNN Pittsburgh at Duke -3.5 Duke (29.2-22.3) 6.9 65.5% Duke
12:00 PM BTN Purdue at Northwestern -16 Northwestern (30.3-15.7) 14.5 80.0% Purdue
12:00 PM ESPNU Texas at West Virginia -8.5 West Virginia (38.7-17.6) 21.1 88.9% West Virginia
12:00 PM UTEP at Old Dominion -4.5 Old Dominion (35.2-23.7) 11.6 74.8% Old Dominion
12:00 PM CBSSN Tulane at Army -2.5 Army (26.5-24.9) 1.6 53.7% Tulane
12:30 PM ESPN3 NC State at Florida State -9.5 Florida State (31.3-25.8) 5.4 62.4% NC State
12:30 PM ESPN3 Virginia at Louisville -13.5 Louisville (37.1-18.6) 18.5 85.7% Louisville
2:00 PM UTSA at Charlotte +5 UTSA (27.0-23.4) 3.6 58.3% Charlotte
2:00 PM ESPN3 Utah State at Air Force +1.5 Air Force (27.1-25.6) 1.6 53.6% Air Force
3:00 PM ESPN3 Arkansas State at UL-Monroe +14.5 Arkansas State (33.8-19.1) 14.7 80.2% Arkansas State
3:00 PM ESPN3 Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan +7 Massachusetts (35.0-29.1) 5.8 63.2% Eastern Michigan
3:00 PM Pac-12 Washington at Arizona State -2.5 Washington (31.3-22.5) 8.8 69.4% Washington
3:30 PM CBS Alabama at Mississippi State +7.5 Alabama (29.6-22.8) 6.8 65.3% Mississippi State
3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Clemson at Syracuse +28 Clemson (42.5-13.4) 29.1 95.4% Clemson
3:30 PM Florida International at Marshall -12 Marshall (33.7-18.8) 14.9 80.6% Marshall
3:30 PM ESPN3 Georgia Southern at Troy +6.5 Georgia Southern (31.5-25.6) 5.8 63.2% Troy
3:30 PM FS1 Kansas State at Texas Tech -5.5 Texas Tech (37.5-31.9) 5.6 62.6% Texas Tech
3:30 PM ESPNU Miami-FL at North Carolina -12 North Carolina (36.5-27.4) 9.1 70.0% Miami-FL
3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Michigan at Indiana +13 Michigan (37.0-19.8) 17.1 83.9% Michigan
3:30 PM BTN Nebraska at Rutgers +9.5 Nebraska (37.8-25.3) 12.5 76.6% Nebraska
3:30 PM ESPN Oklahoma State at Iowa State +14 Oklahoma State (34.6-25.1) 9.5 70.8% Iowa State
3:30 PM CBSSN SMU at Navy -21.5 Navy (46.9-18.1) 28.8 95.2% Navy
3:30 PM Southern Miss at Rice +7.5 Southern Miss (38.3-26.4) 11.9 75.4% Southern Miss
3:30 PM NBC Wake Forest at Notre Dame -27 Notre Dame (43.7-14.0) 29.7 95.7% Notre Dame
4:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia State at Texas State -3 Texas State (35.4-31.3) 4.0 59.2% Texas State
4:00 PM SECN Kentucky at Vanderbilt -3 Vanderbilt (28.6-17.8) 10.8 73.4% Vanderbilt
4:00 PM San Jose State at Nevada -1 Nevada (29.5-28.7) 0.8 52.0% San Jose State
5:00 PM ESPN3 Appalachian State at Idaho +17.5 Appalachian State (41.2-21.8) 19.4 86.9% Appalachian State
7:00 PM ESPN2 Memphis at Houston -7 Houston (36.0-31.5) 4.6 60.4% Memphis
7:00 PM UNLV at Colorado State -7.5 Colorado State (35.4-22.3) 13.1 77.5% Colorado State
7:00 PM CBSSN Temple at South Florida +3 Temple (26.9-23.3) 3.6 58.3% Temple
7:00 PM ESPNU Western Carolina at Texas A&M Texas A&M (47.1-12.2) 34.9 97.8%
7:15 PM ESPN Arkansas at LSU -7.5 LSU (40.3-27.6) 12.7 76.9% LSU
7:30 PM SECN BYU vs. Missouri +6.5 BYU (30.0-16.2) 13.8 78.7% BYU
7:30 PM Fox Oregon at Stanford -10 Stanford (40.0-26.9) 13.1 77.5% Stanford
7:30 PM ESPNN Tulsa at Cincinnati -17.5 Cincinnati (39.3-26.9) 12.5 76.4% Tulsa
8:00 PM BTN Minnesota at Iowa -12.5 Iowa (30.6-18.2) 12.3 76.2% Minnesota
8:00 PM ABC Oklahoma at Baylor -2.5 Baylor (35.7-33.5) 2.1 54.9% Oklahoma
10:00 PM FS1 Utah at Arizona +6 Utah (36.5-24.9) 11.6 74.9% Utah
10:15 PM ESPNU New Mexico at Boise State -30 Boise State (39.0-13.9) 25.1 92.6% New Mexico
10:30 PM Pac-12 Oregon State at California -20.5 California (41.0-18.8) 22.2 90.0% California
10:30 PM CBSSN Wyoming at San Diego State -24.5 San Diego State (39.6-16.2) 23.5 91.2% Wyoming
10:45 PM ESPN Washington State at UCLA -9.5 UCLA (40.9-24.0) 16.9 83.6% UCLA
11:00 PM Fresno State at Hawaii -4.5 Hawaii (27.0-24.9) 2.1 54.8% Fresno State