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Woohoo, an almost perfect week -- S&P+ did well against the spread, AND the win probabilities fell in line at least a bit.
S&P+ against the spread
- Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
- Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
- Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
- Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
- Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
- Week 8: 33-21-1 (61%)
- Week 9: 25-26-1 (49%)
- Week 10: 31-26-2 (54%)
- OVERALL: 265-252-7 (51%)
Glass half-empty: S&P+ is 2 games under .500 ATS over the last six weeks.
Glass half-full: S&P+ is 16 games over .500 ATS over the last three weeks.
I've always been a glass-half-full kinda guy...
Win probabilities
| Win Prob. Range | Last Week | Overall | Win% |
| 50-59% | 5-6 | 55-52 | 51.4% |
| 60-69% | 5-7 | 85-37 | 69.7% |
| 70-79% | 10-4 | 109-20 | 84.5% |
| 80-89% | 16-2 | 114-22 | 83.8% |
| 90-99% | 5-0 | 134-3 | 97.8% |
I'm never going to complain about doing too well picking games straight-up, but all season, teams that were in that 60-99% range, and especially in the 70-99% range, have been doing a little too well. We saw a little bit of a course correction in that 60-79% range last week, which is probably good. Meanwhile ... we're still due a small handful of massive, "they had less than a 10% chance..." upsets at some point. This is your moment, Syracuse.
Tuesday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | ESPNU | Kent State at Ohio | -7 | Ohio (29.3-14.6) | 14.7 | 80.2% | Ohio |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Toledo at Central Michigan | +3 | Toledo (27.1-24.2) | 2.9 | 56.7% | Central Michigan |
Wednesday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Bowling Green at Western Michigan | +2.5 | Bowling Green (37.0-33.0) | 3.9 | 59.0% | Bowling Green |
| 8:00 PM | ESPNU | Northern Illinois at Buffalo | +7 | Northern Illinois (29.6-24.1) | 5.5 | 62.5% | Buffalo |
Thursday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 7:30 PM | ESPNU | UL-Lafayette at South Alabama | -3 | South Alabama (30.7-29.8) | 0.9 | 52.2% | UL-Lafayette |
| 7:30 PM | ESPN | Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech | -3.5 | Georgia Tech (27.7-26.5) | 1.2 | 52.8% | Virginia Tech |
Friday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 9:00 PM | ESPN2 | USC at Colorado | +16.5 | USC (41.1-21.1) | 20.0 | 87.6% | USC |
Saturday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Akron at Miami-OH | +7 | Akron (29.0-19.7) | 9.3 | 70.5% | Akron |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN | Florida at South Carolina | +7.5 | Florida (35.0-18.7) | 16.2 | 82.6% | Florida |
| 12:00 PM | CBS | Georgia at Auburn | -2 | Georgia (28.2-25.8) | 2.4 | 55.5% | Georgia |
| 12:00 PM | FS1 | Kansas at TCU | -45 | TCU (54.2-13.5) | 40.7 | 99.1% | Kansas |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Maryland at Michigan State | -15 | Michigan State (34.3-20.7) | 13.6 | 78.5% | Maryland |
| 12:00 PM | Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic | +5.5 | Florida Atlantic (29.4-28.6) | 0.8 | 51.9% | Florida Atlantic | |
| 12:00 PM | SECN | North Texas at Tennessee | -41 | Tennessee (48.5-9.8) | 38.7 | 98.7% | North Texas |
| 12:00 PM | ABC | Ohio State at Illinois | +16 | Ohio State (29.4-20.1) | 9.4 | 70.6% | Illinois |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNN | Pittsburgh at Duke | -3.5 | Duke (29.2-22.3) | 6.9 | 65.5% | Duke |
| 12:00 PM | BTN | Purdue at Northwestern | -16 | Northwestern (30.3-15.7) | 14.5 | 80.0% | Purdue |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Texas at West Virginia | -8.5 | West Virginia (38.7-17.6) | 21.1 | 88.9% | West Virginia |
| 12:00 PM | UTEP at Old Dominion | -4.5 | Old Dominion (35.2-23.7) | 11.6 | 74.8% | Old Dominion | |
| 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Tulane at Army | -2.5 | Army (26.5-24.9) | 1.6 | 53.7% | Tulane |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | NC State at Florida State | -9.5 | Florida State (31.3-25.8) | 5.4 | 62.4% | NC State |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Virginia at Louisville | -13.5 | Louisville (37.1-18.6) | 18.5 | 85.7% | Louisville |
| 2:00 PM | UTSA at Charlotte | +5 | UTSA (27.0-23.4) | 3.6 | 58.3% | Charlotte | |
| 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Utah State at Air Force | +1.5 | Air Force (27.1-25.6) | 1.6 | 53.6% | Air Force |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Arkansas State at UL-Monroe | +14.5 | Arkansas State (33.8-19.1) | 14.7 | 80.2% | Arkansas State |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan | +7 | Massachusetts (35.0-29.1) | 5.8 | 63.2% | Eastern Michigan |
| 3:00 PM | Pac-12 | Washington at Arizona State | -2.5 | Washington (31.3-22.5) | 8.8 | 69.4% | Washington |
| 3:30 PM | CBS | Alabama at Mississippi State | +7.5 | Alabama (29.6-22.8) | 6.8 | 65.3% | Mississippi State |
| 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Clemson at Syracuse | +28 | Clemson (42.5-13.4) | 29.1 | 95.4% | Clemson |
| 3:30 PM | Florida International at Marshall | -12 | Marshall (33.7-18.8) | 14.9 | 80.6% | Marshall | |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia Southern at Troy | +6.5 | Georgia Southern (31.5-25.6) | 5.8 | 63.2% | Troy |
| 3:30 PM | FS1 | Kansas State at Texas Tech | -5.5 | Texas Tech (37.5-31.9) | 5.6 | 62.6% | Texas Tech |
| 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Miami-FL at North Carolina | -12 | North Carolina (36.5-27.4) | 9.1 | 70.0% | Miami-FL |
| 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Michigan at Indiana | +13 | Michigan (37.0-19.8) | 17.1 | 83.9% | Michigan |
| 3:30 PM | BTN | Nebraska at Rutgers | +9.5 | Nebraska (37.8-25.3) | 12.5 | 76.6% | Nebraska |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN | Oklahoma State at Iowa State | +14 | Oklahoma State (34.6-25.1) | 9.5 | 70.8% | Iowa State |
| 3:30 PM | CBSSN | SMU at Navy | -21.5 | Navy (46.9-18.1) | 28.8 | 95.2% | Navy |
| 3:30 PM | Southern Miss at Rice | +7.5 | Southern Miss (38.3-26.4) | 11.9 | 75.4% | Southern Miss | |
| 3:30 PM | NBC | Wake Forest at Notre Dame | -27 | Notre Dame (43.7-14.0) | 29.7 | 95.7% | Notre Dame |
| 4:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia State at Texas State | -3 | Texas State (35.4-31.3) | 4.0 | 59.2% | Texas State |
| 4:00 PM | SECN | Kentucky at Vanderbilt | -3 | Vanderbilt (28.6-17.8) | 10.8 | 73.4% | Vanderbilt |
| 4:00 PM | San Jose State at Nevada | -1 | Nevada (29.5-28.7) | 0.8 | 52.0% | San Jose State | |
| 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | Appalachian State at Idaho | +17.5 | Appalachian State (41.2-21.8) | 19.4 | 86.9% | Appalachian State |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Memphis at Houston | -7 | Houston (36.0-31.5) | 4.6 | 60.4% | Memphis |
| 7:00 PM | UNLV at Colorado State | -7.5 | Colorado State (35.4-22.3) | 13.1 | 77.5% | Colorado State | |
| 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Temple at South Florida | +3 | Temple (26.9-23.3) | 3.6 | 58.3% | Temple |
| 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Western Carolina at Texas A&M | Texas A&M (47.1-12.2) | 34.9 | 97.8% | ||
| 7:15 PM | ESPN | Arkansas at LSU | -7.5 | LSU (40.3-27.6) | 12.7 | 76.9% | LSU |
| 7:30 PM | SECN | BYU vs. Missouri | +6.5 | BYU (30.0-16.2) | 13.8 | 78.7% | BYU |
| 7:30 PM | Fox | Oregon at Stanford | -10 | Stanford (40.0-26.9) | 13.1 | 77.5% | Stanford |
| 7:30 PM | ESPNN | Tulsa at Cincinnati | -17.5 | Cincinnati (39.3-26.9) | 12.5 | 76.4% | Tulsa |
| 8:00 PM | BTN | Minnesota at Iowa | -12.5 | Iowa (30.6-18.2) | 12.3 | 76.2% | Minnesota |
| 8:00 PM | ABC | Oklahoma at Baylor | -2.5 | Baylor (35.7-33.5) | 2.1 | 54.9% | Oklahoma |
| 10:00 PM | FS1 | Utah at Arizona | +6 | Utah (36.5-24.9) | 11.6 | 74.9% | Utah |
| 10:15 PM | ESPNU | New Mexico at Boise State | -30 | Boise State (39.0-13.9) | 25.1 | 92.6% | New Mexico |
| 10:30 PM | Pac-12 | Oregon State at California | -20.5 | California (41.0-18.8) | 22.2 | 90.0% | California |
| 10:30 PM | CBSSN | Wyoming at San Diego State | -24.5 | San Diego State (39.6-16.2) | 23.5 | 91.2% | Wyoming |
| 10:45 PM | ESPN | Washington State at UCLA | -9.5 | UCLA (40.9-24.0) | 16.9 | 83.6% | UCLA |
| 11:00 PM | Fresno State at Hawaii | -4.5 | Hawaii (27.0-24.9) | 2.1 | 54.8% | Fresno State |