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USC 38, Arizona 30: The next great USC running back emerges

ROJO

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USC 38, Arizona 30

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arizona USC Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 79 76
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 35.2 31.7 29.7
Possessions 14 15
Scoring Opportunities*
7 8
Points Per Opportunity 4.29 4.75 4.75
Leverage Rate** 64.6% 63.2% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.556 0.634 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona USC
Total 38.0 47.7
Rushing 7.9 25.2
Passing 30.2 22.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona USC Nat'l Avg
All (close) 36.7% 38.2% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 26.9% 39.5% 42.5%
Passing (close) 41.5% 36.8% 40.7%
Standard Downs 35.3% 45.8% 46.9%
Passing Downs 39.3% 25.0% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona USC Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.31 1.64 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.12 1.68 1.07
Passing (close) 1.37 1.60 1.48
Standard Downs 1.25 1.43 1.11
Passing Downs 1.41 2.31 1.77
Line Stats Arizona USC Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.28 3.04 2.87
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 9.7% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 13.6% 10.5% 7.5%
Turnovers Arizona USC
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.1 3.9
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin USC +0.44
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arizona +0.44
TO Points Margin USC +1.1 points
Situational Arizona USC
Q1 S&P 0.600 0.345
Q2 S&P 0.596 0.799
Q3 S&P 0.438 0.524
Q4 S&P 0.562 0.742
1st Down S&P 0.572 0.639
2nd Down S&P 0.547 0.594
3rd Down S&P 0.687 0.747
Projected Scoring Margin: USC by 10.8
Actual Scoring Margin: USC by 8

The extra possession for USC turns out to be the difference in this game even though Arizona scored its last touchdown with only 10 seconds left in the game.

Formations/Basics

Arizona USC
Backs-Wide % of Plays Yds/Play % of Plays Yds/Play
0 backs, 5 wide 1.3% 0.0 2.7% 1.5
1 back, 2 wide 12.0% 6.0
1 back, 3 wide 2.5% 18.0 56.0% 6.5
1 back, 4 wide 77.2% 5.2 16.0% 4.8
2 backs, 2 wide 1.3% 2.0 5.3% 6.3
2 backs, 3 wide 17.7% 4.1 8.0% 9.3
No Huddle? % of Plays Yds/Play
Arizona 100.0% 5.2
USC 100.0% 6.2
Arizona USC
Hash % of Plays Yds/Play % of Plays Yds/Play
Left 22.8% 8.3 41.3% 4.3
Middle 16.5% 5.5 13.3% 11.3
Right 60.8% 4.0 45.3% 6.5

Passing

Arizona USC
Passing Comp Rt Yds/Pass Passing Comp Rt Yds/Pass
Behind Line 3-3, 20 yards 100.0% 6.7 8-8, 22 yards 100.0% 2.8
0 to 4 11-15, 51 yards 73.3% 3.4 2-4, 53 yards 50.0% 13.3
5 to 9 6-9, 47 yards 66.7% 5.2 8-14, 56 yards 57.1% 4.0
10 to 19 9-12, 169 yards 75.0% 14.1 2-4, 33 yards 50.0% 8.3
20 to 29 2-3, 65 yards 66.7% 21.7 0-1, 0 yards 0.0% 0.0
30-plus


2-5, 79 yards 40.0% 15.8
Arizona USC
% Blitz: 7.7% 36.8%
Avg. Rushers 4.0 4.2
Passing (no blitz) 29-43, 348 yards, 5 sacks, 7.3 yds. per att. 16-22, 151 yards, 2 sacks, 6.3 yds. per att.
Passing (blitz) 1-3, 3 yards, 1 sacks, 0.8 yds. per att. 5-13, 85 yards, 1 sacks, 6.1 yds. per att.
Reason for INC/INT Arizona USC
QB Fault 11 3
Good Defense 1 4
WR Fault 3 4

Easily the best performance of the season for the USC pass rush as they attacked a reeling Arizona offensive line and recorded six sacks. The Arizona defense didn't struggle in generating pressure either in recording three sacks of its own and constantly confusing the USC offensive line by continuously bringing its blitzers from different spots throughout the defense.

Cody Kessler is mostly a game manager now, although that might have something to do with the emergence of the running game. It helps he has an amazing WR in Juju Smith-Schuster, who played this game after having surgery on Monday on his right hand. Anu Solomon, on the other hand, had his best game of the season yardage wise despite the aforementioned six sacks and the interception, which was clearly thrown behind the intended target.

Rushing

Arizona USC
Rush-Yds YPC Rush-Yds YPC
To Edge 6-10 1.7 12-79 6.6
Toward Tackle 1-1 1.0 6-46 7.7
Up Middle 15-61 4.1 6-18 3.0

Well did USC contain the Arizona run game? Yeah I'd say so. 22 carries for 72 yards. Keep in mind this is removing both sacks and QB scrambles from the equation so if you're looking at your typical box score that's what the difference is.

Most importantly though...

Man. USC hasn't had a running back this exciting since "he who must not be named" (at least according the NCAA). Ronald Jones II is so incredibly exciting to watch. Not only was he explosive (two plays with 20+ yards), but he also didn't have a negative carry. Justin Davis was just about as good as Jones, with three carries over 10 yards and no negative plays himself.

One more important note about Ronald Jones.

QB Activity

Arizona USC
QB Move Rushes-Yds Passes-Yds Sacks-Yds Rushes-Yds Passes-Yds Sacks-Yds
Rollout 1-20
Option - zone read 4-8

Sack - in pocket 4-(-22) 2-(-8)
Sack - QB fault 1-(-3) 1-(-7)