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Oklahoma State 49, TCU 29: 'Pokes are lucky and increasingly good

Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports

tcuokstwp

Top 5 Plays

Play.Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play_Description

Pred

WPA

1

39

TCU

2

11

83

1

Trevone Boykin Pass to Shaun Nixon for 70, FIRST DOWN

0.811

-0.156

2

16

Oklahoma State

3

12

48

1

Mason Rudolph Pass to James Washington for 48, TOUCHDOWN

0.566

0.154

3

13

TCU

2

8

52

1

Trevone Boykin Pass INTERCEPTED

0.510

0.125

4

5

TCU

4

10

88

1

PUNT

0.685

-0.110

5

35

Oklahoma State

1

10

50

1

Mason Rudolph Pass to James Washington for 50, TOUCHDOWN

0.662

0.110

Oklahoma State 49, TCU 29

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Oklahoma State TCU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 53 110
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 61.3%
Avg Starting FP 34.1 23.5 29.7
Possessions 16 17
Scoring Opportunities*
7 9
Points Per Opportunity 6.00 3.44 4.75
Leverage Rate** 70.7% 67.8% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.807 0.560 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oklahoma State TCU
Total 42.9 60.0
Rushing 6.9 21.2
Passing 36.0 38.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Oklahoma State TCU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 43.9% 35.6% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 29.4% 33.3% 42.5%
Passing (close) 54.2% 36.8% 40.7%
Standard Downs 48.3% 32.5% 46.9%
Passing Downs 33.3% 42.1% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oklahoma State TCU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 2.28 1.38 1.27
Rushing (close) 0.94 1.24 1.07
Passing (close) 2.79 1.45 1.48
Standard Downs 1.35 0.95 1.11
Passing Downs 5.52 2.08 1.77
Line Stats Oklahoma State TCU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.45 3.16 2.87
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 5.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Oklahoma State TCU
Turnovers 0 4
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 22.1
Turnover Margin Oklahoma State +4
Exp. TO Margin Oklahoma State +1.03
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Oklahoma State +2.97
TO Points Margin Oklahoma State +22.1 points
Situational Oklahoma State TCU
Q1 S&P 0.843 0.606
Q2 S&P 0.853 0.562
Q3 S&P 0.668 0.624
Q4 S&P 0.346 0.656
1st Down S&P 0.774 0.599
2nd Down S&P 0.691 0.547
3rd Down S&P 0.677 0.672
Projected Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 5.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 20

Turnovers are, on average, worth about 5 points each in terms of field position gained and lost. Using that average, the +2.97 turnover luck figure about results in about 15 points in a 20-point win. Interception returns set up touchdown drives of 1 and 0 yards for the 'Pokes.

This is an ongoing story for OSU. The Cowboys lead the country, averaging about +6.4 PPG in turnovers luck. So it might be clouding us a bit. But I've already written this week how OSU is improving quickly after some lucky/close early wins. Be they 20 points better or not, this was impressive and served notice that the Cowboys have a non-zero chance of beating ISU, Baylor, and Oklahoma to end the season.