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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play.Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play_Description |
Pred |
WPA |
|
1 |
39 |
TCU |
2 |
11 |
83 |
1 |
Trevone Boykin Pass to Shaun Nixon for 70, FIRST DOWN |
0.811 |
-0.156 |
|
2 |
16 |
Oklahoma State |
3 |
12 |
48 |
1 |
Mason Rudolph Pass to James Washington for 48, TOUCHDOWN |
0.566 |
0.154 |
|
3 |
13 |
TCU |
2 |
8 |
52 |
1 |
Trevone Boykin Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.510 |
0.125 |
|
4 |
5 |
TCU |
4 |
10 |
88 |
1 |
PUNT |
0.685 |
-0.110 |
|
5 |
35 |
Oklahoma State |
1 |
10 |
50 |
1 |
Mason Rudolph Pass to James Washington for 50, TOUCHDOWN |
0.662 |
0.110 |
Oklahoma State 49, TCU 29
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Oklahoma State | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 53 | 110 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 61.3% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 34.1 | 23.5 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 16 | 17 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 9 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 6.00 | 3.44 | 4.75 |
| Leverage Rate** | 70.7% | 67.8% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.807 | 0.560 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Oklahoma State | TCU | |
| Total | 42.9 | 60.0 | |
| Rushing | 6.9 | 21.2 | |
| Passing | 36.0 | 38.8 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Oklahoma State | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 43.9% | 35.6% | 41.6% |
| Rushing (close) | 29.4% | 33.3% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 54.2% | 36.8% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 48.3% | 32.5% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 33.3% | 42.1% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Oklahoma State | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 2.28 | 1.38 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.94 | 1.24 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 2.79 | 1.45 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 1.35 | 0.95 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 5.52 | 2.08 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Oklahoma State | TCU | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.87 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 10.0% | 0.0% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Oklahoma State | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 4 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 22.1 |
| Turnover Margin | Oklahoma State +4 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Oklahoma State +1.03 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Oklahoma State +2.97 | |
| TO Points Margin | Oklahoma State +22.1 points | |
| Situational | Oklahoma State | TCU |
| Q1 S&P | 0.843 | 0.606 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.853 | 0.562 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.668 | 0.624 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.346 | 0.656 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.774 | 0.599 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.691 | 0.547 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.677 | 0.672 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 5.0 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 20 | ||
Turnovers are, on average, worth about 5 points each in terms of field position gained and lost. Using that average, the +2.97 turnover luck figure about results in about 15 points in a 20-point win. Interception returns set up touchdown drives of 1 and 0 yards for the 'Pokes.
This is an ongoing story for OSU. The Cowboys lead the country, averaging about +6.4 PPG in turnovers luck. So it might be clouding us a bit. But I've already written this week how OSU is improving quickly after some lucky/close early wins. Be they 20 points better or not, this was impressive and served notice that the Cowboys have a non-zero chance of beating ISU, Baylor, and Oklahoma to end the season.