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Alabama 30, LSU 16: I wouldn't have thought the BRONCOS could stop LSU's run like this

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

bamalsuwp

Top 5 Plays

Play.Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play_Description

Pred

WPA

1

26

LSU

3

18

98

1

Brandon Harris Pass to Travin Dural for 37, FIRST DOWN

0.677

-0.175

2

89

LSU

1

10

75

3

Brandon Harris Pass INTERCEPTED

0.646

0.122

3

64

LSU

2

12

40

2

Brandon Harris Pass to Travin Dural for 40, TOUCHDOWN

0.806

-0.116

4

34

Alabama

3

10

80

1

Jake Coker Pass to Calvin Ridley for 14, FIRST DOWN

0.503

0.096

5

85

Alabama

4

11

37

2

FIELD_GOAL

0.561

0.087

Not a lot of high-impact plays in this game, but most of them involved Brandon Harris' arm because the run just wasn't there.

Alabama 30, LSU 16

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Alabama LSU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 79 45
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 89.5%
Avg Starting FP 31.3 24.8 29.7
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
7 3
Points Per Opportunity 4.29 5.67 4.75
Leverage Rate** 73.0% 56.8% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.576 0.479 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Alabama LSU
Total 39.9 16.3
Rushing 26.1 6.3
Passing 13.8 10.0
Success Rate (what's this?) Alabama LSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 41.9% 21.6% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 40.8% 20.0% 42.5%
Passing (close) 44.0% 23.5% 40.7%
Standard Downs 46.3% 23.8% 46.9%
Passing Downs 30.0% 18.8% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Alabama LSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.21 1.53 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.31 1.04 1.07
Passing (close) 1.01 2.02 1.48
Standard Downs 1.19 1.00 1.11
Passing Downs 1.28 2.41 1.77
Line Stats Alabama LSU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.38 1.56 2.87
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 9.1% 14.3% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 14.3% 10.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Alabama LSU
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.6 4.1
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin LSU +0.58
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Alabama +0.58
TO Points Margin LSU +0.4 points
Situational Alabama LSU
Q1 S&P 0.512 0.608
Q2 S&P 0.569 0.616
Q3 S&P 0.637 0.214
Q4 S&P 0.581 0.602
1st Down S&P 0.626 0.511
2nd Down S&P 0.632 0.480
3rd Down S&P 0.440 0.535
Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 23.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 14

20% rushing success rate for LSU. TWENTY. That's just nuts. Alabama showed the same offensive issues as always -- pretty good until you fall off-schedule -- but the Tide were able to run, and the Tigers were not. Hard to come up with anything to say beyond that.