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|
|
Play.Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play_Description |
Pred |
WPA |
|
1 |
202 |
Arkansas |
5 |
0 |
3 |
5 |
ATTEMPT |
0.491 |
-0.491 |
|
2 |
198 |
Arkansas |
4 |
25 |
40 |
5 |
Brandon Allen Pass to Hunter Henry for 29, FIRST DOWN |
0.967 |
-0.476 |
|
3 |
177 |
Arkansas |
2 |
11 |
17 |
4 |
Brandon Allen Pass to Dominique Reed for 17, TOUCHDOWN |
0.804 |
-0.263 |
|
4 |
200 |
Arkansas |
2 |
8 |
9 |
5 |
Brandon Allen Pass to Drew Morgan for 9, TOUCHDOWN |
0.645 |
-0.258 |
|
5 |
151 |
Mississippi |
2 |
9 |
17 |
4 |
Chad Kelly Pass to Laquon Treadwell for 17, TOUCHDOWN |
0.312 |
0.248 |
Arkansas 53, Ole Miss 52
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Arkansas | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 84 | 66 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 31.7 | 26.1 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 12 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
10 | 8 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.30 | 6.50 | 4.75 |
| Leverage Rate** | 70.2% | 77.3% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.670 | 0.765 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Arkansas | Ole Miss | |
| Total | 57.7 | 56.1 | |
| Rushing | 16.7 | 20.7 | |
| Passing | 41.1 | 35.4 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Arkansas | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 47.6% | 60.6% | 41.6% |
| Rushing (close) | 40.5% | 61.3% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 53.2% | 60.0% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 44.1% | 62.8% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 56.0% | 53.3% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Arkansas | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.44 | 1.40 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.64 | 1.69 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.75 | 1.92 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Arkansas | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.23 | 4.55 | 2.87 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 10.0% | 0.0% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Arkansas | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Ole Miss +0.87 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Arkansas +0.87 | |
| TO Points Margin | +0 | |
| Situational | Arkansas | Ole Miss |
| Q1 S&P | 0.645 | 0.718 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.581 | 0.730 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.772 | 0.786 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.706 | 0.817 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.705 | 0.713 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.580 | 0.794 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.764 | 0.690 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 1.6 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 1 | ||
In the podcast yesterday, I talked about how, never mind Ole Miss or its fans, I feel sorry for MYSELF for not getting to watch a healthy Land Sharks unit playing together for more than about a third of the season. This unit is just a shadow of its former self, as evidenced by "Brandon Allen: 33-for-45, 442 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT."
That said ... some incredible resilience from the Hogs here. Ole Miss had them dead to rights on about four different occasions. And Allen's big passes (and one big plunge) managed to steal a win despite some nearly perfect offensive numbers from the Rebels. 61% success rate? 6.5 points per scoring opportunity? And you lost?