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Arkansas 53, Ole Miss 52: Last year, both of these teams had awesome defenses

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Play.Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play_Description

Pred

WPA

1

202

Arkansas

5

0

3

5

ATTEMPT

0.491

-0.491

2

198

Arkansas

4

25

40

5

Brandon Allen Pass to Hunter Henry for 29, FIRST DOWN

0.967

-0.476

3

177

Arkansas

2

11

17

4

Brandon Allen Pass to Dominique Reed for 17, TOUCHDOWN

0.804

-0.263

4

200

Arkansas

2

8

9

5

Brandon Allen Pass to Drew Morgan for 9, TOUCHDOWN

0.645

-0.258

5

151

Mississippi

2

9

17

4

Chad Kelly Pass to Laquon Treadwell for 17, TOUCHDOWN

0.312

0.248

Arkansas 53, Ole Miss 52

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arkansas Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 84 66
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 31.7 26.1 29.7
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
10 8
Points Per Opportunity 5.30 6.50 4.75
Leverage Rate** 70.2% 77.3% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.670 0.765 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arkansas Ole Miss
Total 57.7 56.1
Rushing 16.7 20.7
Passing 41.1 35.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Arkansas Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 47.6% 60.6% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 40.5% 61.3% 42.5%
Passing (close) 53.2% 60.0% 40.7%
Standard Downs 44.1% 62.8% 46.9%
Passing Downs 56.0% 53.3% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arkansas Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.44 1.40 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.11 1.09 1.07
Passing (close) 1.64 1.69 1.48
Standard Downs 1.28 1.27 1.11
Passing Downs 1.75 1.92 1.77
Line Stats Arkansas Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.23 4.55 2.87
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 4.2% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Arkansas Ole Miss
Turnovers 0 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 0.0
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Ole Miss +0.87
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arkansas +0.87
TO Points Margin +0
Situational Arkansas Ole Miss
Q1 S&P 0.645 0.718
Q2 S&P 0.581 0.730
Q3 S&P 0.772 0.786
Q4 S&P 0.706 0.817
1st Down S&P 0.705 0.713
2nd Down S&P 0.580 0.794
3rd Down S&P 0.764 0.690
Projected Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 1.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 1

In the podcast yesterday, I talked about how, never mind Ole Miss or its fans, I feel sorry for MYSELF for not getting to watch a healthy Land Sharks unit playing together for more than about a third of the season. This unit is just a shadow of its former self, as evidenced by "Brandon Allen: 33-for-45, 442 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT."

That said ... some incredible resilience from the Hogs here. Ole Miss had them dead to rights on about four different occasions. And Allen's big passes (and one big plunge) managed to steal a win despite some nearly perfect offensive numbers from the Rebels. 61% success rate? 6.5 points per scoring opportunity? And you lost?