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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play.Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play_Description |
Pred |
WPA |
|
1 |
64 |
Baylor |
1 |
10 |
81 |
2 |
Jarrett Stidham Pass to Corey Coleman for 81, TOUCHDOWN |
0.306 |
-0.179 |
|
2 |
36 |
Baylor |
1 |
10 |
55 |
1 |
Jarrett Stidham Pass to KD Cannon for 55, TOUCHDOWN |
0.487 |
-0.153 |
|
3 |
186 |
Baylor |
2 |
16 |
70 |
4 |
Team Team Rush for -5 |
0.134 |
-0.134 |
|
4 |
48 |
Kansas State |
2 |
10 |
22 |
2 |
Joe Hubener Rush for -1, FUMBLE |
0.447 |
-0.122 |
|
5 |
171 |
Kansas State |
3 |
10 |
10 |
4 |
Joe Hubener Pass to Deante Burton for 10, TOUCHDOWN |
0.052 |
0.120 |
Baylor 31, Kansas State 24
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Baylor | Kansas State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 67 | 71 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 90.6% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 26.4 | 25.8 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 11 | 11 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.17 | 4.80 | 4.75 |
| Leverage Rate** | 76.3% | 74.2% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.712 | 0.591 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Baylor | Kansas State | |
| Total | 48.4 | 39.5 | |
| Rushing | 11.1 | 25.7 | |
| Passing | 37.3 | 13.9 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Baylor | Kansas State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 52.5% | 50.0% | 41.6% |
| Rushing (close) | 46.2% | 58.1% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 57.6% | 34.8% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 57.8% | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 35.7% | 41.2% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Baylor | Kansas State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.46 | 0.96 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.74 | 0.79 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.91 | 1.49 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 1.49 | 0.81 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.28 | 1.51 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Baylor | Kansas State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.78 | 3.35 | 2.87 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 4.2% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 22.2% | 9.1% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Baylor | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 6.1 |
| Turnover Margin | Baylor +3 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Baylor +0.29 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Baylor +2.71 | |
| TO Points Margin | Baylor +6.1 points | |
| Situational | Baylor | Kansas State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.979 | 0.677 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.709 | 0.519 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.703 | 0.501 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.542 | 0.936 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.717 | 0.615 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.818 | 0.609 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.554 | 0.698 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Baylor by 15.0 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Baylor by 7 | ||
For Baylor's sake, it's a good thing KSU isn't actually very good this year. Because the Wildcats executed their slow-it-down gameplan to perfection and gave themselves a chance to win anyway ... and if they'd been a little better at simply avoiding mistakes (namely three turnovers), they might have pulled the upset.
That said, when Baylor had the ball, things were mostly fine with new QB Jarrett Stidham. There were some glitches -- after scoring on three of the first four possessions, BU scored on only two of six the rest of the way -- but some of the stalled drives were due to penalties, not anything Stidham did wrong. He did take three sacks, but he still completed 70 percent of his passes, averaged 11.3 yards per attempt (not completion ... ATTEMPT), and threw no picks. You'll take that from any QB, much less a freshman.