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Baylor 31, Kansas State 24: Stidham's fine, but the Bears are lucky KSU's not that good

Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

baykstwp

Top 5 Plays

Play.Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play_Description

Pred

WPA

1

64

Baylor

1

10

81

2

Jarrett Stidham Pass to Corey Coleman for 81, TOUCHDOWN

0.306

-0.179

2

36

Baylor

1

10

55

1

Jarrett Stidham Pass to KD Cannon for 55, TOUCHDOWN

0.487

-0.153

3

186

Baylor

2

16

70

4

Team Team Rush for -5

0.134

-0.134

4

48

Kansas State

2

10

22

2

Joe Hubener Rush for -1, FUMBLE

0.447

-0.122

5

171

Kansas State

3

10

10

4

Joe Hubener Pass to Deante Burton for 10, TOUCHDOWN

0.052

0.120

Baylor 31, Kansas State 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Baylor Kansas State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 67 71
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 90.6%
Avg Starting FP 26.4 25.8 29.7
Possessions 11 11
Scoring Opportunities*
6 5
Points Per Opportunity 5.17 4.80 4.75
Leverage Rate** 76.3% 74.2% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.712 0.591 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Baylor Kansas State
Total 48.4 39.5
Rushing 11.1 25.7
Passing 37.3 13.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Baylor Kansas State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 52.5% 50.0% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 46.2% 58.1% 42.5%
Passing (close) 57.6% 34.8% 40.7%
Standard Downs 57.8% 53.1% 46.9%
Passing Downs 35.7% 41.2% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Baylor Kansas State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.46 0.96 1.27
Rushing (close) 0.74 0.79 1.07
Passing (close) 1.91 1.49 1.48
Standard Downs 1.49 0.81 1.11
Passing Downs 1.28 1.51 1.77
Line Stats Baylor Kansas State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.78 3.35 2.87
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.2% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 22.2% 9.1% 7.5%
Turnovers Baylor Kansas State
Turnovers 0 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 6.1
Turnover Margin Baylor +3
Exp. TO Margin Baylor +0.29
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Baylor +2.71
TO Points Margin Baylor +6.1 points
Situational Baylor Kansas State
Q1 S&P 0.979 0.677
Q2 S&P 0.709 0.519
Q3 S&P 0.703 0.501
Q4 S&P 0.542 0.936
1st Down S&P 0.717 0.615
2nd Down S&P 0.818 0.609
3rd Down S&P 0.554 0.698
Projected Scoring Margin: Baylor by 15.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Baylor by 7

For Baylor's sake, it's a good thing KSU isn't actually very good this year. Because the Wildcats executed their slow-it-down gameplan to perfection and gave themselves a chance to win anyway ... and if they'd been a little better at simply avoiding mistakes (namely three turnovers), they might have pulled the upset.

That said, when Baylor had the ball, things were mostly fine with new QB Jarrett Stidham. There were some glitches -- after scoring on three of the first four possessions, BU scored on only two of six the rest of the way -- but some of the stalled drives were due to penalties, not anything Stidham did wrong. He did take three sacks, but he still completed 70 percent of his passes, averaged 11.3 yards per attempt (not completion ... ATTEMPT), and threw no picks. You'll take that from any QB, much less a freshman.