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Florida 9, Vanderbilt 7: Everything about this damn game was unlikely

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Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

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Top 5 Plays

Play.Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play_Description

Pred

WPA

1

164

Florida

2

11

46

4

Kneeldown for -1

0.769

0.231

2

71

Vanderbilt

1

10

74

2

Ralph Webb Rush for 74, TOUCHDOWN

0.749

-0.205

3

127

Florida

2

10

19

4

Treon Harris Pass to Demarcus Robinson for 7

0.655

-0.180

4

116

Florida

4

31

75

3

PUNT

0.367

0.122

5

152

Vanderbilt

4

10

87

4

PENALTY

0.745

-0.119

Florida 9, Vanderbilt 7

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida Vanderbilt Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 60 62
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 46.5 16.1 29.7
Possessions 13 13
Scoring Opportunities*
6 1
Points Per Opportunity 1.67 7.00 4.75
Leverage Rate** 61.7% 56.5% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.483 0.397 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida Vanderbilt
Total 21.7 14.9
Rushing 9.1 14.4
Passing 12.6 0.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida Vanderbilt Nat'l Avg
All (close) 33.3% 21.0% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 29.0% 30.2% 42.5%
Passing (close) 37.9% 0.0% 40.7%
Standard Downs 35.1% 28.6% 46.9%
Passing Downs 30.4% 11.1% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida Vanderbilt Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.08 1.15 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.01 1.11 1.07
Passing (close) 1.15 0.00 1.48
Standard Downs 1.10 1.16 1.11
Passing Downs 1.06 1.12 1.77
Line Stats Florida Vanderbilt Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.11 1.54 2.87
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 5.9% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 16.7% 41.7% 7.5%
Turnovers Florida Vanderbilt
Turnovers 4 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 17.3 0.0
Turnover Margin Vanderbilt +4
Exp. TO Margin Vanderbilt +1.24
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Vanderbilt +2.76
TO Points Margin Vanderbilt +17.3 points
Situational Florida Vanderbilt
Q1 S&P 0.656 0.443
Q2 S&P 0.426 0.644
Q3 S&P 0.000 0.297
Q4 S&P 0.558 0.453
1st Down S&P 0.479 0.400
2nd Down S&P 0.558 0.536
3rd Down S&P 0.492 0.200
Projected Scoring Margin: Vanderbilt by 10.5
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida by 2

This game sucked me in. I kept assuming Florida would eventually steer out of its skid and put the game away, but four -- FOUR -- turnovers in VU territory wrecked that. VU had a plus-17 margin in turnover points and recovered all three of the game's fumbles, and one single good offensive looked like it might actually get the Commodores the win.

And then, once I gave in and decided Vandy might actually win, Florida, with a kicker it clearly doesn't trust even a little bit, won via 42-yard field goal. A minus-4 turnover differential is unlikely. That made the result even LESS likely.

By the way, Florida: VU's good offense and your bad breaks still don't give you cover for your 0.000 third-quarter S&P. Yikes.