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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play.Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play_Description |
Pred |
WPA |
|
1 |
164 |
Florida |
2 |
11 |
46 |
4 |
Kneeldown for -1 |
0.769 |
0.231 |
|
2 |
71 |
Vanderbilt |
1 |
10 |
74 |
2 |
Ralph Webb Rush for 74, TOUCHDOWN |
0.749 |
-0.205 |
|
3 |
127 |
Florida |
2 |
10 |
19 |
4 |
Treon Harris Pass to Demarcus Robinson for 7 |
0.655 |
-0.180 |
|
4 |
116 |
Florida |
4 |
31 |
75 |
3 |
PUNT |
0.367 |
0.122 |
|
5 |
152 |
Vanderbilt |
4 |
10 |
87 |
4 |
PENALTY |
0.745 |
-0.119 |
Florida 9, Vanderbilt 7
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Florida | Vanderbilt | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 60 | 62 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 46.5 | 16.1 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 13 | 13 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 1 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 1.67 | 7.00 | 4.75 |
| Leverage Rate** | 61.7% | 56.5% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.483 | 0.397 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Florida | Vanderbilt | |
| Total | 21.7 | 14.9 | |
| Rushing | 9.1 | 14.4 | |
| Passing | 12.6 | 0.5 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Florida | Vanderbilt | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 33.3% | 21.0% | 41.6% |
| Rushing (close) | 29.0% | 30.2% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 37.9% | 0.0% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 35.1% | 28.6% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 30.4% | 11.1% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Florida | Vanderbilt | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.08 | 1.15 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.01 | 1.11 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.15 | 0.00 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 1.10 | 1.16 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.06 | 1.12 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Florida | Vanderbilt | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.11 | 1.54 | 2.87 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 5.9% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 16.7% | 41.7% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Florida | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 4 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 17.3 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Vanderbilt +4 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Vanderbilt +1.24 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Vanderbilt +2.76 | |
| TO Points Margin | Vanderbilt +17.3 points | |
| Situational | Florida | Vanderbilt |
| Q1 S&P | 0.656 | 0.443 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.426 | 0.644 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.000 | 0.297 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.558 | 0.453 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.479 | 0.400 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.558 | 0.536 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.492 | 0.200 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Vanderbilt by 10.5 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Florida by 2 | ||
This game sucked me in. I kept assuming Florida would eventually steer out of its skid and put the game away, but four -- FOUR -- turnovers in VU territory wrecked that. VU had a plus-17 margin in turnover points and recovered all three of the game's fumbles, and one single good offensive looked like it might actually get the Commodores the win.
And then, once I gave in and decided Vandy might actually win, Florida, with a kicker it clearly doesn't trust even a little bit, won via 42-yard field goal. A minus-4 turnover differential is unlikely. That made the result even LESS likely.
By the way, Florida: VU's good offense and your bad breaks still don't give you cover for your 0.000 third-quarter S&P. Yikes.
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