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This could be an interesting week. Either S&P+ knows way more than Vegas ... or this aggressive use of 2015 data will backfire. We'll see.
The verdict was ... a push. S&P+ didn't know way more, and the phasing out of preseason projections data did not really backfire.
- Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
- Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
- Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
- Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
- Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
- OVERALL: 129-115-3 (53%)
Looking back at how previous years would have shaken down with the current picks structure, it probably shouldn't be surprising to note that Weeks 4-7 are the most volatile and least consistent when it comes to S&P+'s performance. As projections get siphoned away and in-season data begins to stand and walk on its own, there are some more extreme weeks -- 35-40% or 60-65% instead of 50%. We'll see if that comes to fruition this year, but last week was basically a punt. This week, with all projections data now gone, could be the same, I guess. Or not. I'd prefer a 65% to a 35%, though.
Win probabilities
Win probabilities were just about dead-on last week -- the 60-69% range came in at 59%, but I'll call that close enough.
| Win Prob. Range | Last Week | Overall | Win% |
| 50-59% | 4-4 | 23-22 | 51.5% |
| 60-69% | 10-7 | 51-16 | 76.1% |
| 70-79% | 11-3 | 56-10 | 84.8% |
| 80-89% | 9-2 | 64-11 | 85.3% |
| 90-99% | 11-0 | 95-1 | 99.0% |
The funny part about this season: we all agree that it's been chaotic and weird and messy ... but we haven't had that many truly amazing upsets yet. The only team in that 90-99% range to lose a game was UCF against Furman ... and knowing what we now know, with UCF having sunk like a stone, that would basically be a 50-50 game if played today. So yeah, it's been nuts and we haven't even had any earth-shattering results yet.
What? I'm just trying to jinx the Florida-Missouri result? How dare you accuse me of such a thing ... I would never...
Thursday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | SMU at Houston | -25.5 | Houston (46.5-25.0) | 21.5 | 89.3% | SMU |
| 9:00 PM | ESPN | Washington at USC | -17 | USC (38.5-18.7) | 19.8 | 87.4% | USC |
Friday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Southern Miss at Marshall | -5 | Marshall (34.5-21.4) | 13.1 | 77.5% | Marshall |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN | NC State at Virginia Tech | -2 | NC State (28.0-27.1) | 0.8 | 51.9% | NC State |
Saturday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 12:00 PM | FS1 | Baylor at Kansas | +44.5 | Baylor (52.2-23.6) | 28.6 | 95.1% | Kansas |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Central Michigan at Western Michigan | -7 | Central Michigan (32.0-26.1) | 5.9 | 63.3% | Central Michigan |
| 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Duke at Army | +11.5 | Duke (36.2-13.4) | 22.8 | 90.6% | Duke |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Illinois at Iowa | -11 | Iowa (25.1-19.9) | 5.2 | 61.8% | Illinois |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN | Indiana at Penn State | -6.5 | Penn State (35.6-22.7) | 12.8 | 77.1% | Penn State |
| 12:00 PM | BTN | Maryland at Ohio State | -33 | Ohio State (34.6-14.6) | 20.0 | 87.6% | Maryland |
| 12:00 PM | FSN affiliates | Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky | -8 | Western Kentucky (37.1-24.4) | 12.7 | 76.9% | Western Kentucky |
| 12:00 PM | SECN | New Mexico State at Ole Miss | -43.5 | Ole Miss (45.0-19.1) | 25.9 | 93.3% | New Mexico State |
| 12:00 PM | ASN | UTEP at Florida International | -14.5 | Florida International (37.9-19.8) | 18.2 | 85.3% | Florida International |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Tulane at Temple | -16 | Temple (38.6-11.7) | 26.9 | 94.0% | Temple |
| 12:00 PM | ABC | Oklahoma vs. Texas | +17.5 | Oklahoma (43.0-15.9) | 27.0 | 94.1% | Oklahoma |
| 12:30 PM | ACC Network | Virginia at Pittsburgh | -10 | Pittsburgh (35.0-20.9) | 14.1 | 79.2% | Pittsburgh |
| 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Massachusetts at Bowling Green | -13.5 | Bowling Green (37.4-33.5) | 3.9 | 58.9% | Massachusetts |
| 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Miami-OH at Ohio | -16 | Ohio (37.1-16.1) | 21.0 | 88.8% | Ohio |
| 2:30 PM | FCS | Rice at Florida Atlantic | -3.5 | Florida Atlantic (41.5-17.2) | 24.3 | 92.0% | Florida Atlantic |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Akron at Eastern Michigan | +7.5 | Akron (30.0-27.7) | 2.3 | 55.2% | Eastern Michigan |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Kent State at Toledo | -14.5 | Toledo (30.2-1.9) | 28.3 | 94.9% | Toledo |
| 3:00 PM | FSN affiliates | Wake Forest at Boston College | -7.5 | Boston College (29.8-10.9) | 18.9 | 86.3% | Boston College |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Appalachian State at Georgia State | +16 | Appalachian State (38.0-21.1) | 16.9 | 83.5% | Appalachian State |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Ball State at Northern Illinois | -10 | Northern Illinois (29.7-22.4) | 7.3 | 66.4% | Ball State |
| 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Georgia Tech at Clemson | -7 | Clemson (34.1-16.9) | 17.2 | 84.0% | Clemson |
| 3:30 PM | CBS | Georgia at Tennessee | +3 | Tennessee (30.1-27.3) | 2.7 | 56.2% | Tennessee |
| 3:30 PM | FSN affiliates | Iowa State at Texas Tech | -12.5 | Texas Tech (40.8-29.5) | 11.3 | 74.3% | Iowa State |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN | LSU "at" South Carolina (in Baton Rouge) |
+15 | LSU (42.2-17.5) | 24.7 | 92.3% | LSU |
| 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Minnesota at Purdue | +3 | Minnesota (29.5-19.6) | 9.8 | 71.5% | Minnesota |
| 3:30 PM | BTN | Northwestern at Michigan | -7.5 | Michigan (25.8-9.3) | 16.5 | 83.0% | Michigan |
| 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Syracuse at South Florida | -2.5 | Syracuse (28.0-23.1) | 5.0 | 61.3% | Syracuse |
| 3:30 PM | NBC | Navy at Notre Dame | -14.5 | Notre Dame (33.9-27.2) | 6.7 | 65.0% | Navy |
| 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Wisconsin at Nebraska | -1 | Wisconsin (27.6-25.6) | 2.0 | 54.5% | Wisconsin |
| 3:45 PM | ESPNU | Connecticut at Central Florida | -3 | Connecticut (28.5-17.2) | 11.3 | 74.3% | Connecticut |
| 4:00 PM | FS1 | Oregon State at Arizona | -10 | Oregon State (32.4-29.7) | 2.7 | 56.1% | Oregon State |
| 4:00 PM | SECN | Troy at Mississippi State | -30.5 | Mississippi State (39.6-19.6) | 20.0 | 87.6% | Troy |
| 5:00 PM | $CSLive | Portland State at North Texas | Portland State (30.3-24.4) | 6.0 | 63.5% | ||
| 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | UL-Monroe at Tulsa | -9.5 | Tulsa (43.0-16.8) | 26.2 | 93.5% | Tulsa |
| 6:00 PM | Pac-12 | Washington State at Oregon | -17 | Oregon (40.7-25.5) | 15.2 | 81.0% | Washington State |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN | Arkansas at Alabama | -17 | Alabama (40.6-18.2) | 22.4 | 90.3% | Alabama |
| 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Boise State at Colorado State | +15.5 | Boise State (29.0-20.9) | 8.1 | 68.1% | Colorado State |
| 7:00 PM | ASN | Louisiana Tech at UTSA | +10.5 | Louisiana Tech (35.4-22.9) | 12.5 | 76.5% | Louisiana Tech |
| 7:00 PM | MWC video | New Mexico at Nevada | -5 | Nevada (30.6-26.7) | 3.9 | 58.8% | New Mexico |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Oklahoma State at West Virginia | -7 | West Virginia (39.1-17.7) | 21.4 | 89.2% | West Virginia |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Texas State at UL-Lafayette | -4 | UL-Lafayette (37.5-37.0) | 0.6 | 51.3% | Texas State |
| 7:30 PM | ESPNU | East Carolina at BYU | -8 | BYU (35.6-22.4) | 13.2 | 77.8% | BYU |
| 7:30 PM | SECN | Florida at Missouri | +6 | Florida (37.8-8.6) | 29.2 | 95.4% | Florida |
| 7:30 PM | Fox | TCU at Kansas State | +9.5 | Kansas State (29.8-29.7) | 0.1 | 50.2% | Kansas State |
| 8:00 PM | ABC | Miami-FL at Florida State | -9 | Florida State (36.4-18.2) | 18.1 | 85.3% | Florida State |
| 8:00 PM | BTN | Michigan State at Rutgers | +14.5 | Michigan State (40.2-19.7) | 20.6 | 88.3% | Michigan State |
| 9:00 PM | MWC video | San Jose State at UNLV | +2.5 | UNLV (31.5-24.3) | 7.2 | 66.1% | UNLV |
| 10:00 PM | ESPN | California at Utah | -7.5 | Utah (35.3-24.4) | 10.9 | 73.5% | Utah |
| 10:00 PM | Pac-12 | Colorado at Arizona State | -15 | Arizona State (38.4-18.3) | 20.0 | 87.6% | Arizona State |
| 10:15 PM | ESPN2 | Wyoming at Air Force | -24 | Air Force (47.5-15.3) | 32.2 | 96.9% | Air Force |
| 10:30 PM | CBSSN | Utah State at Fresno State | +11.5 | Utah State (27.5-20.1) | 7.5 | 66.7% | Fresno State |
| 11:59 PM | MWC video | San Diego State at Hawaii | -3 | San Diego State (23.1-21.7) | 1.5 | 53.4% | San Diego State |
UPDATE: Out of curiosity, I checked on how these numbers are doing in comparison to how far it differs from the spread.
| Difference between S&P+ projection and spread | ATS | |
| 10+ points | 60.0% | |
| 7-10 points | 41.9% | |
| 4-7 points | 52.4% | |
| 2-4 points | 55.3% | |
| 0-2 points | 47.9% |
Huge differences between the spread and S&P+ often come because I don't adjust these numbers in any way to account for injuries or suspensions. So S&P+ doesn't usually perfrom well in those instances. I guess there are two ways to look at this data then -- either the HUGE differences favor S&P+ ... or I just categorized them awkwardly.
Looking merely at games with a difference of 7+ points (i.e. merging those top two categories together), S&P+ does only 48.2% in those games. The softer differences -- two to seven points -- sseem to be where the money's at. That's the way it was the last time I looked at data like this ... though it's been a while since I did that.
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