clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Week 6 S&P+ picks

New, 13 comments
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

This could be an interesting week. Either S&P+ knows way more than Vegas ... or this aggressive use of 2015 data will backfire. We'll see.

The verdict was ... a push. S&P+ didn't know way more, and the phasing out of preseason projections data did not really backfire.

  • Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
  • Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
  • Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
  • Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
  • Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
  • OVERALL: 129-115-3 (53%)

Looking back at how previous years would have shaken down with the current picks structure, it probably shouldn't be surprising to note that Weeks 4-7 are the most volatile and least consistent when it comes to S&P+'s performance. As projections get siphoned away and in-season data begins to stand and walk on its own, there are some more extreme weeks -- 35-40% or 60-65% instead of 50%. We'll see if that comes to fruition this year, but last week was basically a punt. This week, with all projections data now gone, could be the same, I guess. Or not. I'd prefer a 65% to a 35%, though.

Win probabilities

Win probabilities were just about dead-on last week -- the 60-69% range came in at 59%, but I'll call that close enough.

Win Prob. Range Last Week Overall Win%
50-59% 4-4 23-22 51.5%
60-69% 10-7 51-16 76.1%
70-79% 11-3 56-10 84.8%
80-89% 9-2 64-11 85.3%
90-99% 11-0 95-1 99.0%

The funny part about this season: we all agree that it's been chaotic and weird and messy ... but we haven't had that many truly amazing upsets yet. The only team in that 90-99% range to lose a game was UCF against Furman ... and knowing what we now know, with UCF having sunk like a stone, that would basically be a 50-50 game if played today. So yeah, it's been nuts and we haven't even had any earth-shattering results yet.

What? I'm just trying to jinx the Florida-Missouri result? How dare you accuse me of such a thing ... I would never...

Thursday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPN2 SMU at Houston -25.5 Houston (46.5-25.0) 21.5 89.3% SMU
9:00 PM ESPN Washington at USC -17 USC (38.5-18.7) 19.8 87.4% USC

Friday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
7:00 PM CBSSN Southern Miss at Marshall -5 Marshall (34.5-21.4) 13.1 77.5% Marshall
8:00 PM ESPN NC State at Virginia Tech -2 NC State (28.0-27.1) 0.8 51.9% NC State

Saturday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
12:00 PM FS1 Baylor at Kansas +44.5 Baylor (52.2-23.6) 28.6 95.1% Kansas
12:00 PM ESPN3 Central Michigan at Western Michigan -7 Central Michigan (32.0-26.1) 5.9 63.3% Central Michigan
12:00 PM CBSSN Duke at Army +11.5 Duke (36.2-13.4) 22.8 90.6% Duke
12:00 PM ESPN2 Illinois at Iowa -11 Iowa (25.1-19.9) 5.2 61.8% Illinois
12:00 PM ESPN Indiana at Penn State -6.5 Penn State (35.6-22.7) 12.8 77.1% Penn State
12:00 PM BTN Maryland at Ohio State -33 Ohio State (34.6-14.6) 20.0 87.6% Maryland
12:00 PM FSN affiliates Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky -8 Western Kentucky (37.1-24.4) 12.7 76.9% Western Kentucky
12:00 PM SECN New Mexico State at Ole Miss -43.5 Ole Miss (45.0-19.1) 25.9 93.3% New Mexico State
12:00 PM ASN UTEP at Florida International -14.5 Florida International (37.9-19.8) 18.2 85.3% Florida International
12:00 PM ESPNU Tulane at Temple -16 Temple (38.6-11.7) 26.9 94.0% Temple
12:00 PM ABC Oklahoma vs. Texas +17.5 Oklahoma (43.0-15.9) 27.0 94.1% Oklahoma
12:30 PM ACC Network Virginia at Pittsburgh -10 Pittsburgh (35.0-20.9) 14.1 79.2% Pittsburgh
2:00 PM ESPN3 Massachusetts at Bowling Green -13.5 Bowling Green (37.4-33.5) 3.9 58.9% Massachusetts
2:00 PM ESPN3 Miami-OH at Ohio -16 Ohio (37.1-16.1) 21.0 88.8% Ohio
2:30 PM FCS Rice at Florida Atlantic -3.5 Florida Atlantic (41.5-17.2) 24.3 92.0% Florida Atlantic
3:00 PM ESPN3 Akron at Eastern Michigan +7.5 Akron (30.0-27.7) 2.3 55.2% Eastern Michigan
3:00 PM ESPN3 Kent State at Toledo -14.5 Toledo (30.2-1.9) 28.3 94.9% Toledo
3:00 PM FSN affiliates Wake Forest at Boston College -7.5 Boston College (29.8-10.9) 18.9 86.3% Boston College
3:30 PM ESPN3 Appalachian State at Georgia State +16 Appalachian State (38.0-21.1) 16.9 83.5% Appalachian State
3:30 PM ESPN3 Ball State at Northern Illinois -10 Northern Illinois (29.7-22.4) 7.3 66.4% Ball State
3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Georgia Tech at Clemson -7 Clemson (34.1-16.9) 17.2 84.0% Clemson
3:30 PM CBS Georgia at Tennessee +3 Tennessee (30.1-27.3) 2.7 56.2% Tennessee
3:30 PM FSN affiliates Iowa State at Texas Tech -12.5 Texas Tech (40.8-29.5) 11.3 74.3% Iowa State
3:30 PM ESPN LSU "at" South Carolina
(in Baton Rouge)
+15 LSU (42.2-17.5) 24.7 92.3% LSU
3:30 PM ESPNU Minnesota at Purdue +3 Minnesota (29.5-19.6) 9.8 71.5% Minnesota
3:30 PM BTN Northwestern at Michigan -7.5 Michigan (25.8-9.3) 16.5 83.0% Michigan
3:30 PM CBSSN Syracuse at South Florida -2.5 Syracuse (28.0-23.1) 5.0 61.3% Syracuse
3:30 PM NBC Navy at Notre Dame -14.5 Notre Dame (33.9-27.2) 6.7 65.0% Navy
3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Wisconsin at Nebraska -1 Wisconsin (27.6-25.6) 2.0 54.5% Wisconsin
3:45 PM ESPNU Connecticut at Central Florida -3 Connecticut (28.5-17.2) 11.3 74.3% Connecticut
4:00 PM FS1 Oregon State at Arizona -10 Oregon State (32.4-29.7) 2.7 56.1% Oregon State
4:00 PM SECN Troy at Mississippi State -30.5 Mississippi State (39.6-19.6) 20.0 87.6% Troy
5:00 PM $CSLive Portland State at North Texas Portland State (30.3-24.4) 6.0 63.5%
6:00 PM ESPN3 UL-Monroe at Tulsa -9.5 Tulsa (43.0-16.8) 26.2 93.5% Tulsa
6:00 PM Pac-12 Washington State at Oregon -17 Oregon (40.7-25.5) 15.2 81.0% Washington State
7:00 PM ESPN Arkansas at Alabama -17 Alabama (40.6-18.2) 22.4 90.3% Alabama
7:00 PM CBSSN Boise State at Colorado State +15.5 Boise State (29.0-20.9) 8.1 68.1% Colorado State
7:00 PM ASN Louisiana Tech at UTSA +10.5 Louisiana Tech (35.4-22.9) 12.5 76.5% Louisiana Tech
7:00 PM MWC video New Mexico at Nevada -5 Nevada (30.6-26.7) 3.9 58.8% New Mexico
7:00 PM ESPN2 Oklahoma State at West Virginia -7 West Virginia (39.1-17.7) 21.4 89.2% West Virginia
7:00 PM ESPN3 Texas State at UL-Lafayette -4 UL-Lafayette (37.5-37.0) 0.6 51.3% Texas State
7:30 PM ESPNU East Carolina at BYU -8 BYU (35.6-22.4) 13.2 77.8% BYU
7:30 PM SECN Florida at Missouri +6 Florida (37.8-8.6) 29.2 95.4% Florida
7:30 PM Fox TCU at Kansas State +9.5 Kansas State (29.8-29.7) 0.1 50.2% Kansas State
8:00 PM ABC Miami-FL at Florida State -9 Florida State (36.4-18.2) 18.1 85.3% Florida State
8:00 PM BTN Michigan State at Rutgers +14.5 Michigan State (40.2-19.7) 20.6 88.3% Michigan State
9:00 PM MWC video San Jose State at UNLV +2.5 UNLV (31.5-24.3) 7.2 66.1% UNLV
10:00 PM ESPN California at Utah -7.5 Utah (35.3-24.4) 10.9 73.5% Utah
10:00 PM Pac-12 Colorado at Arizona State -15 Arizona State (38.4-18.3) 20.0 87.6% Arizona State
10:15 PM ESPN2 Wyoming at Air Force -24 Air Force (47.5-15.3) 32.2 96.9% Air Force
10:30 PM CBSSN Utah State at Fresno State +11.5 Utah State (27.5-20.1) 7.5 66.7% Fresno State
11:59 PM MWC video San Diego State at Hawaii -3 San Diego State (23.1-21.7) 1.5 53.4% San Diego State

UPDATE: Out of curiosity, I checked on how these numbers are doing in comparison to how far it differs from the spread.

Difference between S&P+ projection and spread
ATS
10+ points
60.0%
7-10 points
41.9%
4-7 points
52.4%
2-4 points
55.3%
0-2 points
47.9%

Huge differences between the spread and S&P+ often come because I don't adjust these numbers in any way to account for injuries or suspensions. So S&P+ doesn't usually perfrom well in those instances. I guess there are two ways to look at this data then -- either the HUGE differences favor S&P+ ... or I just categorized them awkwardly.

Looking merely at games with a difference of 7+ points (i.e. merging those top two categories together), S&P+ does only 48.2% in those games. The softer differences -- two to seven points -- sseem to be where the money's at. That's the way it was the last time I looked at data like this ... though it's been a while since I did that.