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Top 5 plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Prob Before Play |
Home Team Win Prob Added |
|
1 |
189 |
Kansas State |
4 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
Joe Hubener Rush for 5, TOUCHDOWN |
0.724 |
-0.247 |
|
2 |
207 |
Oklahoma State |
1 |
10 |
36 |
4 |
Team kneeldown for -1 |
0.807 |
0.193 |
|
3 |
162 |
Oklahoma State |
2 |
6 |
21 |
4 |
Mason Rudolph Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.607 |
-0.186 |
|
4 |
76 |
Oklahoma State |
1 |
10 |
65 |
2 |
Mason Rudolph Rush for -20, FUMBLE |
0.308 |
-0.171 |
|
5 |
195 |
Oklahoma State |
4 |
8 |
63 |
4 |
Mason Rudolph Pass to Marcell Ateman for 19, FIRST DOWN |
0.479 |
0.149 |
Oklahoma State 36, Kansas State 34
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 67 | 83 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 28.3 | 31.8 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 13 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 8 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.72 |
| Leverage Rate** | 64.2% | 67.5% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.571 | 0.624 | 0.583 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | |
| Total | 33.6 | 48.4 | |
| Rushing | 17.3 | 7.6 | |
| Passing | 16.3 | 40.7 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 40.3% | 47.0% | 41.4% |
| Rushing (close) | 47.2% | 36.0% | 42.3% |
| Passing (close) | 32.3% | 51.7% | 40.5% |
| Standard Downs | 46.5% | 44.6% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 29.2% | 51.9% | 29.7% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.02 | 0.85 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.63 | 1.36 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 1.21 | 0.96 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.33 | 1.74 | 1.78 |
| Line Stats | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.03 | 1.56 | 2.82 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 31.3% | 0.0% | 7.1% |
| Turnovers | Kansas State | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 2.5 | 10.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Kansas State +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Kansas State +0.95 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Kansas State +0.05 | |
| TO Points Margin | Kansas State +7.5 points | |
| Situational | Kansas State | Oklahoma State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.624 | 0.725 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.700 | 0.593 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.107 | 0.556 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.647 | 0.667 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.563 | 0.576 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.601 | 0.479 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.594 | 0.731 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 7.3 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 2 | ||
This game was basically as dead even as I expected, though it took a couple of OSU turnovers (one that killed a scoring opportunity, one that created one for KSU) to do it ... and, of course, that phantom first down. Using up quite a bit of close-game karma early in conference play, 'Pokes...
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