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Oklahoma State 36, Kansas State 34: 'Pokes are spending quite a bit of close-game karma

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Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

okskswp

Top 5 plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Prob Before Play

Home Team Win Prob Added

1

189

Kansas State

4

3

5

4

Joe Hubener Rush for 5, TOUCHDOWN

0.724

-0.247

2

207

Oklahoma State

1

10

36

4

Team kneeldown for -1

0.807

0.193

3

162

Oklahoma State

2

6

21

4

Mason Rudolph Pass INTERCEPTED

0.607

-0.186

4

76

Oklahoma State

1

10

65

2

Mason Rudolph Rush for -20, FUMBLE

0.308

-0.171

5

195

Oklahoma State

4

8

63

4

Mason Rudolph Pass to Marcell Ateman for 19, FIRST DOWN

0.479

0.149

Oklahoma State 36, Kansas State 34

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Kansas State Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 67 83
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.3 31.8 29.6
Possessions 13 14
Scoring Opportunities*
7 8
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 4.75 4.72
Leverage Rate** 64.2% 67.5% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.571 0.624 0.583
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Kansas State Oklahoma State
Total 33.6 48.4
Rushing 17.3 7.6
Passing 16.3 40.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Kansas State Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 40.3% 47.0% 41.4%
Rushing (close) 47.2% 36.0% 42.3%
Passing (close) 32.3% 51.7% 40.5%
Standard Downs 46.5% 44.6% 46.9%
Passing Downs 29.2% 51.9% 29.7%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Kansas State Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.24 1.24 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.02 0.85 1.07
Passing (close) 1.63 1.36 1.47
Standard Downs 1.21 0.96 1.10
Passing Downs 1.33 1.74 1.78
Line Stats Kansas State Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.03 1.56 2.82
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 6.7% 6.1% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 31.3% 0.0% 7.1%
Turnovers Kansas State Oklahoma State
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 2.5 10.0
Turnover Margin Kansas State +1
Exp. TO Margin Kansas State +0.95
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Kansas State +0.05
TO Points Margin Kansas State +7.5 points
Situational Kansas State Oklahoma State
Q1 S&P 0.624 0.725
Q2 S&P 0.700 0.593
Q3 S&P 0.107 0.556
Q4 S&P 0.647 0.667
1st Down S&P 0.563 0.576
2nd Down S&P 0.601 0.479
3rd Down S&P 0.594 0.731
Projected Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 7.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 2

This game was basically as dead even as I expected, though it took a couple of OSU turnovers (one that killed a scoring opportunity, one that created one for KSU) to do it ... and, of course, that phantom first down. Using up quite a bit of close-game karma early in conference play, 'Pokes...