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(Miss State is black because these schools have the same freaking colors)
Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Prob Before Play |
Home Team Win Prob Added |
|
1 |
34 |
Texas A&M |
3 |
2 |
29 |
1 |
Kyle Allen Pass to Damion Ratley for 29, TOUCHDOWN |
0.766 |
0.092 |
|
2 |
19 |
Mississippi State |
2 |
17 |
77 |
1 |
Dak Prescott Rush for 26, FIRST DOWN |
0.782 |
-0.088 |
|
3 |
57 |
Mississippi State |
1 |
10 |
52 |
2 |
Malik Dear Rush for 52, TOUCHDOWN |
0.868 |
-0.081 |
|
4 |
1 |
Mississippi State |
5 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
KICKOFF |
0.599 |
-0.078 |
|
5 |
5 |
Texas A&M |
2 |
5 |
72 |
1 |
Kyle Allen Pass to Ricky Seals-Jones for 25, FIRST DOWN |
0.559 |
0.07 |
Texas A&M 30, Mississippi State 17
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Mississippi State | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 68 | 86 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 94.2% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 21.1 | 36.7 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 13 | 13 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
4 | 7 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.25 | 4.29 | 4.72 |
| Leverage Rate** | 59.3% | 72.1% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.533 | 0.616 | 0.583 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Mississippi State | Texas A&M | |
| Total | 32.4 | 48.0 | |
| Rushing | 18.8 | 19.2 | |
| Passing | 13.7 | 28.8 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Mississippi State | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 39.0% | 47.7% | 41.4% |
| Rushing (close) | 37.9% | 47.7% | 42.3% |
| Passing (close) | 40.0% | 47.6% | 40.5% |
| Standard Downs | 51.4% | 51.6% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 20.8% | 37.5% | 29.7% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Mississippi State | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.11 | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.48 | 0.92 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 0.77 | 1.44 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 0.88 | 1.19 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.92 | 1.09 | 1.78 |
| Line Stats | Mississippi State | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.55 | 3.25 | 2.82 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 11.8% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% |
| Turnovers | Mississippi State | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 9.6 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Texas A&M +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Texas A&M +1.61 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Texas A&M +0.39 | |
| TO Points Margin | Texas A&M +9.6 points | |
| Situational | Mississippi State | Texas A&M |
| Q1 S&P | 0.526 | 0.896 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.740 | 0.551 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.582 | 0.594 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.573 | 0.479 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.562 | 0.642 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.602 | 0.631 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.541 | 0.607 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 25.2 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 13 | ||
Another game decided on passing downs. A&M made plays on those downs, and MSU didn't. That and the fumbles (A&M recovered all three -- two from MSU, one from A&M) made the difference.