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Texas A&M 30, Mississippi State 17: Passing downs were the Aggies' best friend

Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images

tammswp

(Miss State is black because these schools have the same freaking colors)

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Prob Before Play

Home Team Win Prob Added

1

34

Texas A&M

3

2

29

1

Kyle Allen Pass to Damion Ratley for 29, TOUCHDOWN

0.766

0.092

2

19

Mississippi State

2

17

77

1

Dak Prescott Rush for 26, FIRST DOWN

0.782

-0.088

3

57

Mississippi State

1

10

52

2

Malik Dear Rush for 52, TOUCHDOWN

0.868

-0.081

4

1

Mississippi State

5

0

0

1

KICKOFF

0.599

-0.078

5

5

Texas A&M

2

5

72

1

Kyle Allen Pass to Ricky Seals-Jones for 25, FIRST DOWN

0.559

0.07

Texas A&M 30, Mississippi State 17

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Mississippi State Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 68 86
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 94.2%
Avg Starting FP 21.1 36.7 29.6
Possessions 13 13
Scoring Opportunities*
4 7
Points Per Opportunity 4.25 4.29 4.72
Leverage Rate** 59.3% 72.1% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.533 0.616 0.583
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Mississippi State Texas A&M
Total 32.4 48.0
Rushing 18.8 19.2
Passing 13.7 28.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Mississippi State Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
All (close) 39.0% 47.7% 41.4%
Rushing (close) 37.9% 47.7% 42.3%
Passing (close) 40.0% 47.6% 40.5%
Standard Downs 51.4% 51.6% 46.9%
Passing Downs 20.8% 37.5% 29.7%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Mississippi State Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.11 1.17 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.48 0.92 1.07
Passing (close) 0.77 1.44 1.47
Standard Downs 0.88 1.19 1.10
Passing Downs 1.92 1.09 1.78
Line Stats Mississippi State Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.55 3.25 2.82
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 11.8% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 5.9% 7.1%
Turnovers Mississippi State Texas A&M
Turnovers 2 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 9.6 0.0
Turnover Margin Texas A&M +2
Exp. TO Margin Texas A&M +1.61
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Texas A&M +0.39
TO Points Margin Texas A&M +9.6 points
Situational Mississippi State Texas A&M
Q1 S&P 0.526 0.896
Q2 S&P 0.740 0.551
Q3 S&P 0.582 0.594
Q4 S&P 0.573 0.479
1st Down S&P 0.562 0.642
2nd Down S&P 0.602 0.631
3rd Down S&P 0.541 0.607
Projected Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 25.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 13

Another game decided on passing downs. A&M made plays on those downs, and MSU didn't. That and the fumbles (A&M recovered all three -- two from MSU, one from A&M) made the difference.