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Top 5 plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Prob Before Play |
Home Team Win Prob Added |
|
1 |
42 |
UCLA |
3 |
13 |
87 |
1 |
Josh Rosen Rush for -13, SAFETY |
0.473 |
-0.186 |
|
2 |
43 |
UCLA |
1 |
80 |
80 |
1 |
PENALTY |
0.288 |
0.166 |
|
3 |
179 |
UCLA |
3 |
5 |
17 |
4 |
Josh Rosen Pass to Thomas Duarte for 17, TOUCHDOWN |
0.079 |
0.145 |
|
4 |
78 |
UCLA |
2 |
10 |
63 |
2 |
Josh Rosen Pass to Stephen Johnson for 50, FIRST DOWN |
0.267 |
0.132 |
|
5 |
93 |
UCLA |
2 |
13 |
53 |
2 |
Josh Rosen Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.403 |
-0.112 |
Arizona State 38, UCLA 23
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Arizona State | UCLA | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 90 | 68 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 97.5% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 32.2 | 25.4 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 16 | 17 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 3 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.86 | 8.00 | 4.72 |
| Leverage Rate** | 62.2% | 60.9% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.560 | 0.537 | 0.583 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Arizona State | UCLA | |
| Total | 44.1 | 32.6 | |
| Rushing | 18.6 | 7.4 | |
| Passing | 25.5 | 25.2 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Arizona State | UCLA | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 34.4% | 34.4% | 41.4% |
| Rushing (close) | 31.1% | 26.1% | 42.3% |
| Passing (close) | 37.8% | 39.0% | 40.5% |
| Standard Downs | 33.9% | 41.0% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 35.3% | 24.0% | 29.7% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Arizona State | UCLA | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.42 | 1.31 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.33 | 0.60 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.50 | 1.58 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 1.26 | 1.05 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.69 | 2.01 | 1.78 |
| Line Stats | Arizona State | UCLA | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.53 | 1.55 | 2.82 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 4.4% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 10.0% | 7.1% |
| Turnovers | Arizona State | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | UCLA +1.24 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Arizona State +1.24 | |
| TO Points Margin | UCLA +0.2 points | |
| Situational | Arizona State | UCLA |
| Q1 S&P | 0.511 | 0.488 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.549 | 0.662 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.692 | 0.492 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.517 | 0.676 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.518 | 0.487 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.566 | 0.566 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.509 | 0.641 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 11.3 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 15 | ||
Weird game. ASU dominates Q1 and Q3 (combined: ASU 23, UCLA 0), and UCLA chips away in Q2 and Q4. Looked like were going to see a hell of a comeback until the Sun Devils decided they had had enough.
ASU dominated the ball -- 90 plays to 68 -- and therefore racked up a pretty significant yardage advantage. But on a per-play basis, the numbers were nearly dead even; the biggest difference appeared to be that UCLA fell apart once in passing downs, and ASU actually raised its offensive game in such downs. Hard to rely on that for constant success, but it worked on Saturday.