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Arizona State 38, UCLA 23: Bruins played 2 quarters, Sun Devils played 4

Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

uclaaswp

Top 5 plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Prob Before Play

Home Team Win Prob Added

1

42

UCLA

3

13

87

1

Josh Rosen Rush for -13, SAFETY

0.473

-0.186

2

43

UCLA

1

80

80

1

PENALTY

0.288

0.166

3

179

UCLA

3

5

17

4

Josh Rosen Pass to Thomas Duarte for 17, TOUCHDOWN

0.079

0.145

4

78

UCLA

2

10

63

2

Josh Rosen Pass to Stephen Johnson for 50, FIRST DOWN

0.267

0.132

5

93

UCLA

2

13

53

2

Josh Rosen Pass INTERCEPTED

0.403

-0.112

Arizona State 38, UCLA 23

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arizona State UCLA Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 90 68
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 97.5%
Avg Starting FP 32.2 25.4 29.6
Possessions 16 17
Scoring Opportunities*
7 3
Points Per Opportunity 4.86 8.00 4.72
Leverage Rate** 62.2% 60.9% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.560 0.537 0.583
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona State UCLA
Total 44.1 32.6
Rushing 18.6 7.4
Passing 25.5 25.2
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona State UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 34.4% 34.4% 41.4%
Rushing (close) 31.1% 26.1% 42.3%
Passing (close) 37.8% 39.0% 40.5%
Standard Downs 33.9% 41.0% 46.9%
Passing Downs 35.3% 24.0% 29.7%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona State UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.42 1.31 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.33 0.60 1.07
Passing (close) 1.50 1.58 1.47
Standard Downs 1.26 1.05 1.10
Passing Downs 1.69 2.01 1.78
Line Stats Arizona State UCLA Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.53 1.55 2.82
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.4% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 10.0% 7.1%
Turnovers Arizona State UCLA
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 3.7 3.6
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin UCLA +1.24
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arizona State +1.24
TO Points Margin UCLA +0.2 points
Situational Arizona State UCLA
Q1 S&P 0.511 0.488
Q2 S&P 0.549 0.662
Q3 S&P 0.692 0.492
Q4 S&P 0.517 0.676
1st Down S&P 0.518 0.487
2nd Down S&P 0.566 0.566
3rd Down S&P 0.509 0.641
Projected Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 11.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 15

Weird game. ASU dominates Q1 and Q3 (combined: ASU 23, UCLA 0), and UCLA chips away in Q2 and Q4. Looked like were going to see a hell of a comeback until the Sun Devils decided they had had enough.

ASU dominated the ball -- 90 plays to 68 -- and therefore racked up a pretty significant yardage advantage. But on a per-play basis, the numbers were nearly dead even; the biggest difference appeared to be that UCLA fell apart once in passing downs, and ASU actually raised its offensive game in such downs. Hard to rely on that for constant success, but it worked on Saturday.