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Top 5 plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Prob Before Play |
Home Team Win Prob Added |
|
1 |
185 |
Clemson |
1 |
10 |
60 |
4 |
Team Team Rush for -4 |
0.767 |
0.233 |
|
2 |
184 |
Notre Dame |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
KICKOFF |
0.670 |
0.096 |
|
3 |
168 |
Notre Dame |
2 |
10 |
12 |
4 |
DeShone Kizer Pass to Chris Brown for 8 |
0.833 |
0.089 |
|
4 |
2 |
Clemson |
1 |
10 |
64 |
1 |
Deshaun Watson Rush for 38, FIRST DOWN |
0.589 |
0.088 |
|
5 |
183 |
Notre Dame |
1 |
65 |
65 |
4 |
PENALTY |
0.748 |
-0.078 |
Clemson 24, Notre Dame 22
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Clemson | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 64 | 71 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 98.5% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 33.4 | 26.9 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 16 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.43 | 4.00 | 4.72 |
| Leverage Rate** | 71.9% | 59.4% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.526 | 0.548 | 0.583 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Clemson | Notre Dame | |
| Total | 27.2 | 38.2 | |
| Rushing | 17.7 | 11.2 | |
| Passing | 9.5 | 27.0 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Clemson | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 37.5% | 39.1% | 41.4% |
| Rushing (close) | 38.1% | 35.5% | 42.3% |
| Passing (close) | 36.4% | 42.1% | 40.5% |
| Standard Downs | 45.7% | 43.9% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 16.7% | 32.1% | 29.7% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Clemson | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.13 | 1.18 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.11 | 0.98 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.19 | 1.32 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 0.97 | 0.87 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 2.29 | 1.79 | 1.78 |
| Line Stats | Clemson | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.61 | 2.54 | 2.82 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 15.8% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 5.3% | 7.1% |
| Turnovers | Clemson | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 4 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 3.3 | 17.3 |
| Turnover Margin | Clemson +3 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Clemson +3.21 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Notre Dame +0.21 | |
| TO Points Margin | Clemson +14.1 points | |
| Situational | Clemson | Notre Dame |
| Q1 S&P | 0.722 | 0.392 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.351 | 0.457 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.522 | 0.474 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.550 | 0.849 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.514 | 0.602 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.569 | 0.526 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.471 | 0.678 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Clemson by 3.1 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Clemson by 2 | ||
I came away from this game thinking more highly of both teams. Notre Dame killed itself with turnovers -- the Irish out gained the Tigers by 141 yards and had the only offense that did anything on passing downs -- but kept coming back from the dead and almost got the game to overtime regardless. Clemson, meanwhile, kept struggling to put the game away and kept making one more play to stay ahead. Really fun and intense.
I didn't mind Notre Dame's decision to go for two down 21-9, by the way. With 14 minutes left in the game, your most realistic comeback scenarios don't involve the opponent scoring, so Brian Kelly elected to go for 2 so he knew whether he needed a TD and a FG or two TDs to get all the way back. Made sense to me. We tend to rip apart coaches who go for 2 too early in this regard, but the math is the same either way, and if you wait till the end to go for 2, all your eggs are in that basket.
Kelly didn't HAVE to go for 2 (which ended up costing him when ND missed and Clemson added a field goal to go up 15), but just because it didn't work out didn't make it a bad call.
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