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Florida 38, Ole Miss 10: And suddenly it's 1995 again

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Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

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Top 5 plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Prob Before Play

Home Team Win Prob Added

1

5

Florida

4

13

78

1

PUNT

0.436

0.138

2

18

Mississippi

2

3

68

1

Jaylen Walton Rush for -4, FUMBLE

0.733

0.114

3

9

Mississippi

4

14

89

1

PUNT

0.695

-0.095

4

7

Mississippi

2

8

83

1

Chad Kelly Rush for -9

0.589

0.079

5

63

Florida

3

6

77

2

Will Grier Pass to Brandon Powell for 77, TOUCHDOWN

0.896

0.074

Florida 38, Ole Miss 10

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 66 73
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 48.9%
Avg Starting FP 44.7 20.4 29.6
Possessions 13 13
Scoring Opportunities*
8 3
Points Per Opportunity 5.12 3.33 4.72
Leverage Rate** 73.7% 63.3% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.693 0.487 0.583
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida Ole Miss
Total 33.6 28.2
Rushing 8.0 8.7
Passing 25.6 19.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 47.4% 36.7% 41.4%
Rushing (close) 31.3% 35.7% 42.3%
Passing (close) 59.1% 37.5% 40.5%
Standard Downs 60.7% 47.4% 46.9%
Passing Downs 10.0% 18.2% 29.7%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.57 0.97 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.30 0.94 1.07
Passing (close) 1.68 1.00 1.47
Standard Downs 1.08 0.68 1.10
Passing Downs 9.94 2.28 1.78
Line Stats Florida Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.33 1.46 2.82
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 11.1% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 33.3% 28.6% 7.1%
Turnovers Florida Ole Miss
Turnovers 0 4
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 22.6
Turnover Margin Florida +4
Exp. TO Margin Florida +1.68
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Florida +2.32
TO Points Margin Florida +22.6 points
Situational Florida Ole Miss
Q1 S&P 0.654 0.424
Q2 S&P 0.752 0.571
Q3 S&P 0.428 0.540
Q4 S&P 0.366 0.544
1st Down S&P 0.567 0.499
2nd Down S&P 0.525 0.546
3rd Down S&P 0.602 0.514
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida by 28.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida by 28

1. It was like a switch got flipped and suddenly Florida was Florida! again (and Ole Miss was the old version of Ole Miss, too). These teams don't play much, but in 1995, Steve Spurrier's awesome Gators handled a 6-5 Rebel team, 28-10, in the Swamp. If you forgot everything you knew from 2013-14, this game felt a lot like that.

Against an Ole Miss team that has already won at Tuscaloosa this year, the Gators were the smarter, faster, stronger, more aggressive team. They created more opportunities and better converted those opportunities. They were absurdly efficient against one of the best defenses they'll face this year. They almost completely limited Ole Miss' big plays, forcing the Rebels to play efficient ball ... something that has been an issue at times.

Now Florida has to keep doing it. The Gators were clearly improved before Saturday, but Saturday's performance was so definitive and seemed so natural that we are kind of just expecting to see it again and again. Easier said than done, I guess.

2. Remember how Ole Miss fans got mad at the "They didn't beat us; we beat ourselves" narrative following the Bama win? At the time, I mentioned that this is a silly thing to get mad about because if they're ruing their mistakes, that means you made fewer of them.

The shoe was on the other foot on Saturday. Ole Miss was only out gained by 27 yards and put together enough just enough passing success to give themselves a shot ... and repeatedly made killer mistakes. TO Luck favored Florida in this one just as it favored the Rebels against Alabama. Makes a huge difference. Florida was easily the better team, but Ole Miss would have at least kept things semi-close without the turnover fairy.