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Top 5 plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Prob Before Play |
Home Team Win Prob Added |
|
1 |
5 |
Florida |
4 |
13 |
78 |
1 |
PUNT |
0.436 |
0.138 |
|
2 |
18 |
Mississippi |
2 |
3 |
68 |
1 |
Jaylen Walton Rush for -4, FUMBLE |
0.733 |
0.114 |
|
3 |
9 |
Mississippi |
4 |
14 |
89 |
1 |
PUNT |
0.695 |
-0.095 |
|
4 |
7 |
Mississippi |
2 |
8 |
83 |
1 |
Chad Kelly Rush for -9 |
0.589 |
0.079 |
|
5 |
63 |
Florida |
3 |
6 |
77 |
2 |
Will Grier Pass to Brandon Powell for 77, TOUCHDOWN |
0.896 |
0.074 |
Florida 38, Ole Miss 10
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Florida | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 66 | 73 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 48.9% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 44.7 | 20.4 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 13 | 13 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
8 | 3 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.12 | 3.33 | 4.72 |
| Leverage Rate** | 73.7% | 63.3% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.693 | 0.487 | 0.583 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Florida | Ole Miss | |
| Total | 33.6 | 28.2 | |
| Rushing | 8.0 | 8.7 | |
| Passing | 25.6 | 19.4 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Florida | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 47.4% | 36.7% | 41.4% |
| Rushing (close) | 31.3% | 35.7% | 42.3% |
| Passing (close) | 59.1% | 37.5% | 40.5% |
| Standard Downs | 60.7% | 47.4% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 10.0% | 18.2% | 29.7% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Florida | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.57 | 0.97 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.30 | 0.94 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.68 | 1.00 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 1.08 | 0.68 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 9.94 | 2.28 | 1.78 |
| Line Stats | Florida | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.33 | 1.46 | 2.82 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 11.1% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 33.3% | 28.6% | 7.1% |
| Turnovers | Florida | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 4 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 22.6 |
| Turnover Margin | Florida +4 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Florida +1.68 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Florida +2.32 | |
| TO Points Margin | Florida +22.6 points | |
| Situational | Florida | Ole Miss |
| Q1 S&P | 0.654 | 0.424 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.752 | 0.571 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.428 | 0.540 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.366 | 0.544 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.567 | 0.499 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.525 | 0.546 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.602 | 0.514 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Florida by 28.1 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Florida by 28 | ||
1. It was like a switch got flipped and suddenly Florida was Florida! again (and Ole Miss was the old version of Ole Miss, too). These teams don't play much, but in 1995, Steve Spurrier's awesome Gators handled a 6-5 Rebel team, 28-10, in the Swamp. If you forgot everything you knew from 2013-14, this game felt a lot like that.
Against an Ole Miss team that has already won at Tuscaloosa this year, the Gators were the smarter, faster, stronger, more aggressive team. They created more opportunities and better converted those opportunities. They were absurdly efficient against one of the best defenses they'll face this year. They almost completely limited Ole Miss' big plays, forcing the Rebels to play efficient ball ... something that has been an issue at times.
Now Florida has to keep doing it. The Gators were clearly improved before Saturday, but Saturday's performance was so definitive and seemed so natural that we are kind of just expecting to see it again and again. Easier said than done, I guess.
2. Remember how Ole Miss fans got mad at the "They didn't beat us; we beat ourselves" narrative following the Bama win? At the time, I mentioned that this is a silly thing to get mad about because if they're ruing their mistakes, that means you made fewer of them.
The shoe was on the other foot on Saturday. Ole Miss was only out gained by 27 yards and put together enough just enough passing success to give themselves a shot ... and repeatedly made killer mistakes. TO Luck favored Florida in this one just as it favored the Rebels against Alabama. Makes a huge difference. Florida was easily the better team, but Ole Miss would have at least kept things semi-close without the turnover fairy.
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