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Top 5 plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Prob Before Play |
Home Team Win Prob Added |
|
1 |
169 |
Michigan State |
3 |
14 |
52 |
4 |
Team Team Rush for -2 |
0.778 |
0.222 |
|
2 |
19 |
Purdue |
1 |
10 |
73 |
1 |
David Blough Rush for 0, FUMBLE |
0.538 |
0.143 |
|
3 |
142 |
Purdue |
1 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
Markell Jones Rush for 3, TOUCHDOWN |
0.854 |
-0.132 |
|
4 |
160 |
Purdue |
4 |
6 |
63 |
4 |
PENALTY |
0.740 |
-0.105 |
|
5 |
165 |
Purdue |
4 |
9 |
52 |
4 |
David Blough Pass to Gregory Phillips for 0 |
0.726 |
0.103 |
Michigan State 24, Purdue 21
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Michigan State | Purdue | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 66 | 63 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 26.5 | 30.1 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 12 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 4 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.80 | 5.25 | 4.72 |
| Leverage Rate** | 72.7% | 58.7% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.600 | 0.523 | 0.583 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Michigan State | Purdue | |
| Total | 36.5 | 26.6 | |
| Rushing | 24.4 | 15.7 | |
| Passing | 12.1 | 10.9 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Michigan State | Purdue | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 42.4% | 36.5% | 41.4% |
| Rushing (close) | 44.7% | 41.4% | 42.3% |
| Passing (close) | 36.8% | 32.4% | 40.5% |
| Standard Downs | 43.8% | 37.8% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 38.9% | 34.6% | 29.7% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Michigan State | Purdue | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.30 | 1.16 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.16 | 1.31 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.73 | 0.99 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 1.23 | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.54 | 1.87 | 1.78 |
| Line Stats | Michigan State | Purdue | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.77 | 3.29 | 2.82 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 11.8% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% |
| Turnovers | Michigan State | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 11.3 |
| Turnover Margin | Michigan State +3 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Michigan State +0.95 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Michigan State +2.05 | |
| TO Points Margin | Michigan State +11.3 points | |
| Situational | Michigan State | Purdue |
| Q1 S&P | 0.684 | 0.498 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.692 | 0.264 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.502 | 0.480 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.527 | 0.746 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.551 | 0.543 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.640 | 0.408 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.647 | 0.753 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 21.3 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 3 | ||
Weird game. Purdue starts a game against a top-ranked opponent with Punt-Fumble-Punt-Fumble-Punt-INT-Punt ... and gets the ball back with three minutes left with a chance to win. Michigan State controlled this game, and turnovers luck should have pushed the Spartans to an easy win, but the Boilermakers crawled back. Sparty's got a dagger-dropping problem this year.