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Michigan State 24, Purdue 21: Sparty's gotta stop dropping daggers

Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

msupurdwp

Top 5 plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Prob Before Play

Home Team Win Prob Added

1

169

Michigan State

3

14

52

4

Team Team Rush for -2

0.778

0.222

2

19

Purdue

1

10

73

1

David Blough Rush for 0, FUMBLE

0.538

0.143

3

142

Purdue

1

3

3

4

Markell Jones Rush for 3, TOUCHDOWN

0.854

-0.132

4

160

Purdue

4

6

63

4

PENALTY

0.740

-0.105

5

165

Purdue

4

9

52

4

David Blough Pass to Gregory Phillips for 0

0.726

0.103

Michigan State 24, Purdue 21

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Michigan State Purdue Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 66 63
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 26.5 30.1 29.6
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
5 4
Points Per Opportunity 4.80 5.25 4.72
Leverage Rate** 72.7% 58.7% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.600 0.523 0.583
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Michigan State Purdue
Total 36.5 26.6
Rushing 24.4 15.7
Passing 12.1 10.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Michigan State Purdue Nat'l Avg
All (close) 42.4% 36.5% 41.4%
Rushing (close) 44.7% 41.4% 42.3%
Passing (close) 36.8% 32.4% 40.5%
Standard Downs 43.8% 37.8% 46.9%
Passing Downs 38.9% 34.6% 29.7%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Michigan State Purdue Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.30 1.16 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.16 1.31 1.07
Passing (close) 1.73 0.99 1.47
Standard Downs 1.23 0.70 1.10
Passing Downs 1.54 1.87 1.78
Line Stats Michigan State Purdue Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.77 3.29 2.82
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 11.8% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 5.9% 7.1%
Turnovers Michigan State Purdue
Turnovers 0 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 11.3
Turnover Margin Michigan State +3
Exp. TO Margin Michigan State +0.95
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Michigan State +2.05
TO Points Margin Michigan State +11.3 points
Situational Michigan State Purdue
Q1 S&P 0.684 0.498
Q2 S&P 0.692 0.264
Q3 S&P 0.502 0.480
Q4 S&P 0.527 0.746
1st Down S&P 0.551 0.543
2nd Down S&P 0.640 0.408
3rd Down S&P 0.647 0.753
Projected Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 21.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 3

Weird game. Purdue starts a game against a top-ranked opponent with Punt-Fumble-Punt-Fumble-Punt-INT-Punt ... and gets the ball back with three minutes left with a chance to win. Michigan State controlled this game, and turnovers luck should have pushed the Spartans to an easy win, but the Boilermakers crawled back. Sparty's got a dagger-dropping problem this year.