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Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Prob Before Play |
Home Team Win Prob Added |
|
1 |
150 |
Ohio State |
4 |
1 |
65 |
3 |
Ezekiel Elliott Rush for 65, TOUCHDOWN |
0.745 |
-0.308 |
|
2 |
213 |
Indiana |
4 |
9 |
9 |
4 |
Zander Diamont Pass to Ricky Jones INCOMPLETE |
0.230 |
-0.230 |
|
3 |
120 |
Ohio State |
3 |
2 |
55 |
3 |
Ezekiel Elliott Rush for 55, TOUCHDOWN |
0.675 |
-0.213 |
|
4 |
139 |
Ohio State |
3 |
12 |
21 |
3 |
Cardale Jones Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.336 |
0.166 |
|
5 |
182 |
Indiana |
1 |
10 |
79 |
4 |
Zander Diamont Rush for 79, TOUCHDOWN |
0.041 |
0.14 |
Ohio State 34, Indiana 27
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Indiana | Ohio State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 91 | 61 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 26.1 | 35.5 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 18 | 17 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 8 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.72 |
| Leverage Rate** | 53.9% | 65.6% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.544 | 0.703 | 0.583 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Indiana | Ohio State | |
| Total | 37.8 | 44.8 | |
| Rushing | 16.5 | 27.2 | |
| Passing | 21.3 | 17.7 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Indiana | Ohio State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 23.1% | 34.4% | 41.4% |
| Rushing (close) | 16.7% | 31.3% | 42.3% |
| Passing (close) | 32.4% | 37.9% | 40.5% |
| Standard Downs | 22.5% | 35.0% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 23.8% | 33.3% | 29.7% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Indiana | Ohio State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.80 | 2.14 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.83 | 2.72 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.77 | 1.61 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 2.04 | 2.15 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.53 | 2.10 | 1.78 |
| Line Stats | Indiana | Ohio State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 1.68 | 2.57 | 2.82 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 12.5% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 3.7% | 0.0% | 7.1% |
| Turnovers | Indiana | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 15.7 |
| Turnover Margin | Indiana +3 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Indiana +1.16 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Indiana +1.84 | |
| TO Points Margin | Indiana +15.7 points | |
| Situational | Indiana | Ohio State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.610 | 0.416 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.378 | 0.653 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.524 | 0.843 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.680 | 0.979 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.601 | 0.755 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.647 | 0.607 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.520 | 0.689 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Indiana by 8.6 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 7 | ||
With a nine-yard field position advantage, two more scoring opportunities, and a far superior success rate, Ohio State controlled this game pretty significantly. That's what you would expect from the defending national champion. But turnovers -- three of them, all in Indiana territory -- very nearly flipped this game around and allowed the Hoosiers to steal one (or at least send the game to OT). A bullet dodged. That's to some degree been the story for the Buckeyes all year. They alternate between looking like we expected them to look and making silly mistakes.