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Ohio State 34, Indiana 27: Turnovers nearly led to an upset

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

osuiuwp

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Prob Before Play

Home Team Win Prob Added

1

150

Ohio State

4

1

65

3

Ezekiel Elliott Rush for 65, TOUCHDOWN

0.745

-0.308

2

213

Indiana

4

9

9

4

Zander Diamont Pass to Ricky Jones INCOMPLETE

0.230

-0.230

3

120

Ohio State

3

2

55

3

Ezekiel Elliott Rush for 55, TOUCHDOWN

0.675

-0.213

4

139

Ohio State

3

12

21

3

Cardale Jones Pass INTERCEPTED

0.336

0.166

5

182

Indiana

1

10

79

4

Zander Diamont Rush for 79, TOUCHDOWN

0.041

0.14

Ohio State 34, Indiana 27

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Indiana Ohio State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 91 61
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 26.1 35.5 29.6
Possessions 18 17
Scoring Opportunities*
6 8
Points Per Opportunity 4.50 4.25 4.72
Leverage Rate** 53.9% 65.6% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.544 0.703 0.583
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Indiana Ohio State
Total 37.8 44.8
Rushing 16.5 27.2
Passing 21.3 17.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Indiana Ohio State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 23.1% 34.4% 41.4%
Rushing (close) 16.7% 31.3% 42.3%
Passing (close) 32.4% 37.9% 40.5%
Standard Downs 22.5% 35.0% 46.9%
Passing Downs 23.8% 33.3% 29.7%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Indiana Ohio State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.80 2.14 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.83 2.72 1.07
Passing (close) 1.77 1.61 1.47
Standard Downs 2.04 2.15 1.10
Passing Downs 1.53 2.10 1.78
Line Stats Indiana Ohio State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.68 2.57 2.82
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 12.5% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 3.7% 0.0% 7.1%
Turnovers Indiana Ohio State
Turnovers 0 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 15.7
Turnover Margin Indiana +3
Exp. TO Margin Indiana +1.16
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Indiana +1.84
TO Points Margin Indiana +15.7 points
Situational Indiana Ohio State
Q1 S&P 0.610 0.416
Q2 S&P 0.378 0.653
Q3 S&P 0.524 0.843
Q4 S&P 0.680 0.979
1st Down S&P 0.601 0.755
2nd Down S&P 0.647 0.607
3rd Down S&P 0.520 0.689
Projected Scoring Margin: Indiana by 8.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 7

With a nine-yard field position advantage, two more scoring opportunities, and a far superior success rate, Ohio State controlled this game pretty significantly. That's what you would expect from the defending national champion. But turnovers -- three of them, all in Indiana territory -- very nearly flipped this game around and allowed the Hoosiers to steal one (or at least send the game to OT). A bullet dodged. That's to some degree been the story for the Buckeyes all year. They alternate between looking like we expected them to look and making silly mistakes.