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Utah 34, Arizona State 18: Wonderful late play overcomes special teams hilarity

Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

asuutahwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Predicted WP

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

145

Utah

3

3

25

4

Devontae Booker Rush for 25, TOUCHDOWN

0.453

0.274

2

28

Utah

5

0

0

1

KICKOFF

0.749

-0.161

3

118

Arizona State

5

0

0

3

KICKOFF

0.622

-0.133

4

77

Utah

3

12

83

2

Travis Wilson Pass to Tyrone Smith for 22, FIRST DOWN

0.639

0.107

5

160

Arizona State

1

10

75

4

Kalen Ballage Rush for -2, FUMBLE

0.822

0.106

Man oh man, Utah just tried to MURDER itself on special teams in this game...

Utah 34, Arizona State 18

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arizona State Utah Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 70 67
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 24.8 35.3 29.6
Possessions 15 14
Scoring Opportunities*
4 7
Points Per Opportunity 2.25 4.86 4.77
Leverage Rate** 54.3% 62.7% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.443 0.575 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona State Utah
Total 21.2 34.6
Rushing 3.4 11.5
Passing 17.8 23.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona State Utah Nat'l Avg
All (close) 24.3% 35.8% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 17.4% 19.2% 42.4%
Passing (close) 27.7% 46.3% 40.7%
Standard Downs 31.6% 38.1% 47.1%
Passing Downs 15.6% 32.0% 29.9%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona State Utah Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.24 1.44 1.27
Rushing (close) 0.84 2.30 1.08
Passing (close) 1.37 1.21 1.47
Standard Downs 1.13 1.42 1.11
Passing Downs 1.52 1.49 1.79
Line Stats Arizona State Utah Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.09 1.44 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 9.1% 4.4% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 12.0% 22.2% 7.3%
Turnovers Arizona State Utah
Turnovers 2 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.5 0.0
Turnover Margin Utah +2
Exp. TO Margin Utah +2.05
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arizona State +0.05
TO Points Margin Utah +5.5 points
Situational Arizona State Utah
Q1 S&P 0.000 0.521
Q2 S&P 0.478 0.665
Q3 S&P 0.567 0.368
Q4 S&P 0.369 0.680
1st Down S&P 0.484 0.591
2nd Down S&P 0.468 0.633
3rd Down S&P 0.405 0.406
Projected Scoring Margin: Utah by 18.9
Actual Scoring Margin: Utah by 16

If not for special teams (ASU's kick return touchdown, a long punt return, and the most hilariously awful kick return trick play you'll ever see, which resulted in a safety), Utah would have put this game away early. The Utes were more efficient and had turnovers on their side. But special teams count, too, huh? As it stood, ASU was in wonderful shape for an upset until a 20-point fourth quarter from the Utes.