clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Stanford 56, UCLA 35: Tilt the field, stay on schedule, finish drives, never lose

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

stanuclewp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Predicted WP

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

28

UCLA

1

10

70

1

Josh Rosen Pass to Darren Andrews for 70, TOUCHDOWN

0.832

-0.123

2

24

UCLA

5

0

0

1

KICKOFF

0.708

0.123

3

16

UCLA

2

2

53

1

Paul Perkins Rush for 43, FIRST DOWN

0.696

-0.097

4

37

Stanford

3

13

65

1

Kevin Hogan Pass to Austin Hooper for 16, FIRST DOWN

0.667

0.092

5

40

Stanford

3

12

51

1

Kevin Hogan Pass to Austin Hooper for 22, FIRST DOWN

0.705

0.092

Stanford 56, UCLA 35

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Stanford UCLA Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 65 73
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 44.9%
Avg Starting FP 37.4 25.1 29.6
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
7 6
Points Per Opportunity 7.00 5.67 4.77
Leverage Rate** 81.6% 54.2% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.726 0.688 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Stanford UCLA
Total 42.9 46.2
Rushing 29.4 18.5
Passing 13.6 27.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Stanford UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 60.5% 33.3% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 61.5% 33.3% 42.4%
Passing (close) 58.3% 33.3% 40.7%
Standard Downs 64.5% 53.9% 47.1%
Passing Downs 42.9% 9.1% 29.9%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Stanford UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.21 2.11 1.27
Rushing (close) 0.89 2.01 1.08
Passing (close) 1.94 2.16 1.47
Standard Downs 1.16 2.12 1.11
Passing Downs 1.51 2.00 1.79
Line Stats Stanford UCLA Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.55 2.90 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Stanford UCLA
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.2 9.7
Turnover Margin Stanford +1
Exp. TO Margin Stanford +0.59
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Stanford +0.41
TO Points Margin Stanford +5.5 points
Situational Stanford UCLA
Q1 S&P 0.644 0.953
Q2 S&P 0.772 0.574
Q3 S&P 0.843 0.460
Q4 S&P 0.607 0.717
1st Down S&P 0.616 0.631
2nd Down S&P 0.684 0.597
3rd Down S&P 0.729 0.704
Projected Scoring Margin: Stanford by 2.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Stanford by 21

Stanford had a 12-yard advantage (per possession) in field position, stayed above 80 percent in leverage rate, and finished every scoring opportunity with seven points. It is almost impossible to lose doing that. That's just a staggeringly high level of execution, even if you give up some big plays along the way (and Stanford did). But a lot of UCLA's yards came when the Bruins were well behind, so aside from a few plays in the first half, it's hard to fault the defense much, either.

That thin defense is still a bit of a concern, but good gracious, this offense is just a killing machine at the moment...