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As projections get siphoned away and in-season data begins to stand and walk on its own, there are some more extreme weeks -- 35-40% or 60-65% instead of 50%. We'll see if that comes to fruition this year, but last week was basically a punt. This week, with all projections data now gone, could be the same, I guess. Or not. I'd prefer a 65% to a 35%, though.
Two weeks, two punts. (Makes sense considering I was at Missouri-Florida last week.)
- Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
- Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
- Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
- Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
- Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
- OVERALL: 156-143-3 (52%)
Alright, so ... survived the transition to new data. Now we'll see what happens.
Win probabilities
| Win Prob. Range | Last Week | Overall | Win% |
| 50-59% | 7-3 | 30-25 | 54.5% |
| 60-69% | 6-3 | 57-19 | 75.0% |
| 70-79% | 10-0 | 66-10 | 86.8% |
| 80-89% | 11-4 | 75-15 | 83.3% |
| 90-99% | 10-2 | 105-3 | 97.2% |
We finally had some pretty big upsets this past week, the biggest being Oklahoma-Texas. At some point, those games in the 60-80% range will adjust a bit, I assume.
QUICK NOTE ABOUT THIS WEEK'S GAMES: The win probability data in this week's stat profiles is slightly off -- they were evidently culled from last week's ratings, not this week's. So the numbers you see below are slightly different. Figuring out the best way to update this data and do some QC has been tricky.
Tuesday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | +5 | Arkansas State (29.9-24.4) | 5.5 | 62.5% | Arkansas State |
1-0!
Thursday
This is going to be a super-fun weekend, and it starts with a huge, significant game out west.
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Auburn at Kentucky | +2 | Auburn (29.2-28.4) | 0.8 | 51.8% | Kentucky |
| 7:30 PM | CBSSN | Western Kentucky at North Texas | +33 | Western Kentucky (56.7-8.9) | 47.8 | 99.7% | Western Kentucky |
| 10:30 PM | ESPN2 | UCLA at Stanford | -6.5 | Stanford (33.4-26.3) | 7.1 | 66.0% | Stanford |
Friday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Cincinnati at BYU | -6.5 | BYU (41.1-21.6) | 19.4 | 86.9% | BYU |
| 9:00 PM | CBSSN | Boise State at Utah State | +9.5 | Boise State (25.6-21.7) | 3.9 | 59.0% | Utah State |
| 9:00 PM | ESPNU | Houston at Tulane | +19 | Houston (35.7-22.7) | 13.0 | 77.4% | Tulane |
| 10:30 PM | ESPN2 | UNLV at Fresno State | +6.5 | UNLV (30.0-21.1) | 8.9 | 69.6% | UNLV |
Saturday
Looking forward to BU-WVU. Either S&P+ is proven right in its BU suspicion/WVU love, or there’s a massive correction coming soon.
— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) October 14, 2015
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 12:00 PM | ABC/ ESPN2 |
Iowa at Northwestern | +2.5 | Northwestern (24.7-18.5) | 6.2 | 64.0% | Northwestern |
| 12:00 PM | ABC/ ESPN2 |
Ole Miss at Memphis | +10.5 | Ole Miss (36.9-28.1) | 8.7 | 69.3% | Memphis |
| 12:00 PM | BTN | Purdue at Wisconsin | -24 | Wisconsin (34.1-17.3) | 16.9 | 83.5% | Purdue |
| 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Bucknell at Army | Army (41.1-15.6) | 25.5 | 92.9% | ||
| 12:00 PM | ESPN | Louisville at Florida State | -7 | Florida State (32.2-19.7) | 12.5 | 76.5% | Florida State |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Michigan at Toledo | -29 | Toledo (42.7-14.5) | 28.2 | 94.8% | Eastern Michigan |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Western Michigan at Ohio | -4.5 | Ohio (40.2-22.0) | 18.2 | 85.3% | Ohio |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNN | Tulsa at East Carolina | -10.5 | East Carolina (35.6-31.5) | 4.1 | 59.5% | Tulsa |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNU | South Florida at Connecticut | -3 | South Florida (27.4-23.6) | 3.8 | 58.8% | South Florida |
| 12:00 PM | Fox | West Virginia at Baylor | -21 | West Virginia (34.3-33.1) | 1.2 | 52.8% | West Virginia |
| 12:00 PM | FS1 | Texas Tech at Kansas | +31 | Texas Tech (52.6-26.0) | 26.6 | 93.8% | Kansas |
| 12:00 PM | SECN | Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State | -13.5 | Louisiana Tech (30.4-29.1) | 1.3 | 52.9% | Louisiana Tech |
| 12:00 PM | FSN affiliates | Florida International at Middle Tennessee | -9 | Middle Tennessee (34.5-21.8) | 12.7 | 76.8% | Middle Tennessee |
| 12:00 PM | FCS | Marshall at Florida Atlantic | +6.5 | Marshall (25.5-22.4) | 3.1 | 57.0% | Florida Atlantic |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech | -3.5 | Georgia Tech (27.7-24.9) | 2.8 | 56.3% | Pittsburgh |
| 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Buffalo at Central Michigan | -7 | Central Michigan (31.2-24.8) | 6.5 | 64.6% | Buffalo |
| 2:30 PM | ESPN3 | Northern Illinois at Miami-OH | +15.5 | Northern Illinois (31.5-17.5) | 14.0 | 79.0% | Miami-OH |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Akron at Bowling Green | -12 | Bowling Green (35.9-27.7) | 8.2 | 68.2% | Akron |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia State at Ball State | -15.5 | Ball State (39.7-25.3) | 14.4 | 79.7% | Georgia State |
| 3:30 PM | ABC | Oklahoma at Kansas State | +5 | Oklahoma (29.4-27.9) | 1.5 | 53.5% | Kansas State |
| 3:30 PM | BTN | Rutgers at Indiana | ? | Indiana (43.0-22.8) | 20.2 | 87.9% | ? |
| 3:30 PM | CBS | Alabama at Texas A&M | +4 | Alabama (32.9-22.1) | 10.8 | 73.4% | Alabama |
| 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Air Force at Colorado State | +3 | Air Force (30.6-25.6) | 5.0 | 61.4% | Air Force |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN | Michigan State at Michigan | -8 | Michigan (34.8-13.5) | 21.3 | 89.1% | Michigan |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN2 | Nebraska at Minnesota | -2 | Minnesota (28.5-22.3) | 6.2 | 63.9% | Minnesota |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Idaho at Troy | ? | Troy (34.6-31.6) | 3.0 | 56.8% | ? |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Kent State at Massachusetts | -7 | Massachusetts (31.2-16.0) | 15.2 | 81.0% | Massachusetts |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Syracuse at Virginia | -7 | Virginia (32.8-27.9) | 4.9 | 61.2% | Syracuse |
| 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Virginia Tech at Miami-FL | -6 | Miami-FL (30.0-27.3) | 2.7 | 56.3% | Virginia Tech |
| 3:30 PM | ASN | Charlotte at Old Dominion | -7 | Old Dominion (26.2-15.7) | 10.5 | 72.8% | Old Dominion |
| 4:00 PM | ESPN3 | Nevada at Wyoming | +7 | Nevada (34.6-26.0) | 8.6 | 69.0% | Nevada |
| 4:00 PM | Pac-12 | Oregon State at Washington State | -8 | Washington State (31.6-28.1) | 3.5 | 58.0% | Oregon State |
| 4:00 PM | SECN | Vanderbilt at South Carolina | -3 | Vanderbilt (27.0-26.2) | 0.9 | 52.0% | Vanderbilt |
| 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | New Mexico State at Georgia Southern | -29 | Georgia Southern (38.4-26.0) | 12.3 | 76.1% | New Mexico State |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN | Florida at LSU | -9.5 | Florida (29.1-27.7) | 1.4 | 53.2% | Florida |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | TCU at Iowa State | +21 | TCU (36.5-27.9) | 8.6 | 69.0% | Iowa State |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Appalachian State at UL-Monroe | +11.5 | Appalachian State (31.9-17.7) | 14.2 | 79.4% | Appalachian State |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Wake Forest at North Carolina | -17 | North Carolina (30.4-25.7) | 4.7 | 60.6% | Wake Forest |
| 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Boston College at Clemson | -15.5 | Clemson (32.0-3.6) | 28.5 | 95.0% | Clemson |
| 7:00 PM | RSRM | Hawaii at New Mexico | -6 | Hawaii (26.5-25.0) | 1.5 | 53.5% | Hawaii |
| 7:00 PM | ASN | UTSA at Southern Miss | -10.5 | UTSA (33.1-27.0) | 6.1 | 63.7% | UTSA |
| 7:30 PM | CBSSN | Central Florida at Temple | -22 | Temple (39.3-5.8) | 33.5 | 97.4% | Temple |
| 7:30 PM | NBC | USC at Notre Dame | -7 | Notre Dame (33.9-31.5) | 2.4 | 55.6% | USC |
| 7:30 PM | SECN | Missouri at Georgia | -16 | Georgia (31.2-17.6) | 13.6 | 78.4% | Missouri |
| 8:00 PM | ABC | Penn State at Ohio State | -17 | Ohio State (27.8-23.2) | 4.5 | 60.4% | Penn State |
| 9:00 PM | FS1 | Arizona at Colorado | +7.5 | Arizona (38.7-26.3) | 12.4 | 76.3% | Arizona |
| 10:00 PM | ESPN | Arizona State at Utah | -6.5 | Utah (33.4-24.4) | 9.0 | 69.9% | Utah |
| 10:30 PM | ESPN2 | Oregon at Washington | -2.5 | Washington (35.3-19.5) | 15.7 | 81.8% | Washington |
| 10:30 PM | ESPNU | San Diego State at San Jose State | -3 | San Jose State (29.5-23.0) | 6.5 | 64.5% | San Jose State |
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