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Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

As projections get siphoned away and in-season data begins to stand and walk on its own, there are some more extreme weeks -- 35-40% or 60-65% instead of 50%. We'll see if that comes to fruition this year, but last week was basically a punt. This week, with all projections data now gone, could be the same, I guess. Or not. I'd prefer a 65% to a 35%, though.

Two weeks, two punts. (Makes sense considering I was at Missouri-Florida last week.)

  • Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
  • Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
  • Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
  • Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
  • Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
  • OVERALL: 156-143-3 (52%)

Alright, so ... survived the transition to new data. Now we'll see what happens.

Win probabilities

Win Prob. Range Last Week Overall Win%
50-59% 7-3 30-25 54.5%
60-69% 6-3 57-19 75.0%
70-79% 10-0 66-10 86.8%
80-89% 11-4 75-15 83.3%
90-99% 10-2 105-3 97.2%

We finally had some pretty big upsets this past week, the biggest being Oklahoma-Texas. At some point, those games in the 60-80% range will adjust a bit, I assume.

QUICK NOTE ABOUT THIS WEEK'S GAMES: The win probability data in this week's stat profiles is slightly off -- they were evidently culled from last week's ratings, not this week's. So the numbers you see below are slightly different. Figuring out the best way to update this data and do some QC has been tricky.

Tuesday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPN2 Arkansas State at South Alabama +5 Arkansas State (29.9-24.4) 5.5 62.5% Arkansas State

1-0!

Thursday

This is going to be a super-fun weekend, and it starts with a huge, significant game out west.

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
7:00 PM ESPN2 Auburn at Kentucky +2 Auburn (29.2-28.4) 0.8 51.8% Kentucky
7:30 PM CBSSN Western Kentucky at North Texas +33 Western Kentucky (56.7-8.9) 47.8 99.7% Western Kentucky
10:30 PM ESPN2 UCLA at Stanford -6.5 Stanford (33.4-26.3) 7.1 66.0% Stanford

Friday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPN2 Cincinnati at BYU -6.5 BYU (41.1-21.6) 19.4 86.9% BYU
9:00 PM CBSSN Boise State at Utah State +9.5 Boise State (25.6-21.7) 3.9 59.0% Utah State
9:00 PM ESPNU Houston at Tulane +19 Houston (35.7-22.7) 13.0 77.4% Tulane
10:30 PM ESPN2 UNLV at Fresno State +6.5 UNLV (30.0-21.1) 8.9 69.6% UNLV

Saturday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
12:00 PM ABC/
ESPN2
Iowa at Northwestern +2.5 Northwestern (24.7-18.5) 6.2 64.0% Northwestern
12:00 PM ABC/
ESPN2
Ole Miss at Memphis +10.5 Ole Miss (36.9-28.1) 8.7 69.3% Memphis
12:00 PM BTN Purdue at Wisconsin -24 Wisconsin (34.1-17.3) 16.9 83.5% Purdue
12:00 PM CBSSN Bucknell at Army Army (41.1-15.6) 25.5 92.9%
12:00 PM ESPN Louisville at Florida State -7 Florida State (32.2-19.7) 12.5 76.5% Florida State
12:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Michigan at Toledo -29 Toledo (42.7-14.5) 28.2 94.8% Eastern Michigan
12:00 PM ESPN3 Western Michigan at Ohio -4.5 Ohio (40.2-22.0) 18.2 85.3% Ohio
12:00 PM ESPNN Tulsa at East Carolina -10.5 East Carolina (35.6-31.5) 4.1 59.5% Tulsa
12:00 PM ESPNU South Florida at Connecticut -3 South Florida (27.4-23.6) 3.8 58.8% South Florida
12:00 PM Fox West Virginia at Baylor -21 West Virginia (34.3-33.1) 1.2 52.8% West Virginia
12:00 PM FS1 Texas Tech at Kansas +31 Texas Tech (52.6-26.0) 26.6 93.8% Kansas
12:00 PM SECN Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State -13.5 Louisiana Tech (30.4-29.1) 1.3 52.9% Louisiana Tech
12:00 PM FSN affiliates Florida International at Middle Tennessee -9 Middle Tennessee (34.5-21.8) 12.7 76.8% Middle Tennessee
12:00 PM FCS Marshall at Florida Atlantic +6.5 Marshall (25.5-22.4) 3.1 57.0% Florida Atlantic
12:30 PM ESPN3 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech -3.5 Georgia Tech (27.7-24.9) 2.8 56.3% Pittsburgh
1:00 PM ESPN3 Buffalo at Central Michigan -7 Central Michigan (31.2-24.8) 6.5 64.6% Buffalo
2:30 PM ESPN3 Northern Illinois at Miami-OH +15.5 Northern Illinois (31.5-17.5) 14.0 79.0% Miami-OH
3:00 PM ESPN3 Akron at Bowling Green -12 Bowling Green (35.9-27.7) 8.2 68.2% Akron
3:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia State at Ball State -15.5 Ball State (39.7-25.3) 14.4 79.7% Georgia State
3:30 PM ABC Oklahoma at Kansas State +5 Oklahoma (29.4-27.9) 1.5 53.5% Kansas State
3:30 PM BTN Rutgers at Indiana ? Indiana (43.0-22.8) 20.2 87.9% ?
3:30 PM CBS Alabama at Texas A&M +4 Alabama (32.9-22.1) 10.8 73.4% Alabama
3:30 PM CBSSN Air Force at Colorado State +3 Air Force (30.6-25.6) 5.0 61.4% Air Force
3:30 PM ESPN Michigan State at Michigan -8 Michigan (34.8-13.5) 21.3 89.1% Michigan
3:30 PM ESPN2 Nebraska at Minnesota -2 Minnesota (28.5-22.3) 6.2 63.9% Minnesota
3:30 PM ESPN3 Idaho at Troy ? Troy (34.6-31.6) 3.0 56.8% ?
3:30 PM ESPN3 Kent State at Massachusetts -7 Massachusetts (31.2-16.0) 15.2 81.0% Massachusetts
3:30 PM ESPN3 Syracuse at Virginia -7 Virginia (32.8-27.9) 4.9 61.2% Syracuse
3:30 PM ESPNU Virginia Tech at Miami-FL -6 Miami-FL (30.0-27.3) 2.7 56.3% Virginia Tech
3:30 PM ASN Charlotte at Old Dominion -7 Old Dominion (26.2-15.7) 10.5 72.8% Old Dominion
4:00 PM ESPN3 Nevada at Wyoming +7 Nevada (34.6-26.0) 8.6 69.0% Nevada
4:00 PM Pac-12 Oregon State at Washington State -8 Washington State (31.6-28.1) 3.5 58.0% Oregon State
4:00 PM SECN Vanderbilt at South Carolina -3 Vanderbilt (27.0-26.2) 0.9 52.0% Vanderbilt
6:00 PM ESPN3 New Mexico State at Georgia Southern -29 Georgia Southern (38.4-26.0) 12.3 76.1% New Mexico State
7:00 PM ESPN Florida at LSU -9.5 Florida (29.1-27.7) 1.4 53.2% Florida
7:00 PM ESPN2 TCU at Iowa State +21 TCU (36.5-27.9) 8.6 69.0% Iowa State
7:00 PM ESPN3 Appalachian State at UL-Monroe +11.5 Appalachian State (31.9-17.7) 14.2 79.4% Appalachian State
7:00 PM ESPN3 Wake Forest at North Carolina -17 North Carolina (30.4-25.7) 4.7 60.6% Wake Forest
7:00 PM ESPNU Boston College at Clemson -15.5 Clemson (32.0-3.6) 28.5 95.0% Clemson
7:00 PM RSRM Hawaii at New Mexico -6 Hawaii (26.5-25.0) 1.5 53.5% Hawaii
7:00 PM ASN UTSA at Southern Miss -10.5 UTSA (33.1-27.0) 6.1 63.7% UTSA
7:30 PM CBSSN Central Florida at Temple -22 Temple (39.3-5.8) 33.5 97.4% Temple
7:30 PM NBC USC at Notre Dame -7 Notre Dame (33.9-31.5) 2.4 55.6% USC
7:30 PM SECN Missouri at Georgia -16 Georgia (31.2-17.6) 13.6 78.4% Missouri
8:00 PM ABC Penn State at Ohio State -17 Ohio State (27.8-23.2) 4.5 60.4% Penn State
9:00 PM FS1 Arizona at Colorado +7.5 Arizona (38.7-26.3) 12.4 76.3% Arizona
10:00 PM ESPN Arizona State at Utah -6.5 Utah (33.4-24.4) 9.0 69.9% Utah
10:30 PM ESPN2 Oregon at Washington -2.5 Washington (35.3-19.5) 15.7 81.8% Washington
10:30 PM ESPNU San Diego State at San Jose State -3 San Jose State (29.5-23.0) 6.5 64.5% San Jose State