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Top 5 Plays
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability Before Play |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
186 |
Washington |
3 |
7 |
58 |
4 |
Team Team Rush for -4 |
0.199 |
-0.199 |
2 |
95 |
USC |
1 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
FIELD_GOAL |
0.745 |
-0.116 |
3 |
104 |
USC |
2 |
10 |
80 |
3 |
Cody Kessler Pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 7 |
0.646 |
-0.113 |
4 |
178 |
USC |
4 |
9 |
28 |
4 |
FIELD_GOAL |
0.310 |
-0.111 |
5 |
8 |
Washington |
3 |
13 |
36 |
1 |
Jake Browning Pass to Jaydon Mickens for 16, FIRST DOWN |
0.520 |
-0.109 |
Washington 17, USC 12
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
Basics | USC | Washington | Nat'l Avg |
---|---|---|---|
Total Plays | 68 | 69 | |
Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
Avg Starting FP | 20.1 | 37.5 | 29.6 |
Possessions | 13 | 13 | |
Scoring Opportunities* |
4 | 6 | |
Points Per Opportunity | 3.25 | 2.83 | 4.76 |
Leverage Rate** | 70.6% | 65.2% | 68.1% |
Close S&P*** | 0.548 | 0.508 | 0.585 |
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
EqPts (what's this?) | USC | Washington | |
Total | 29.3 | 27.6 | |
Rushing | 19.7 | 13.4 | |
Passing | 9.7 | 14.1 | |
Success Rate (what's this?) | USC | Washington | Nat'l Avg |
All (close) | 44.1% | 34.8% | 41.5% |
Rushing (close) | 58.8% | 38.2% | 42.5% |
Passing (close) | 29.4% | 31.4% | 40.5% |
Standard Downs | 60.4% | 42.2% | 47.0% |
Passing Downs | 5.0% | 20.8% | 29.8% |
IsoPPP (what's this?) | USC | Washington | Nat'l Avg |
All (close) | 0.98 | 1.15 | 1.26 |
Rushing (close) | 0.98 | 1.03 | 1.07 |
Passing (close) | 0.97 | 1.29 | 1.48 |
Standard Downs | 0.95 | 1.04 | 1.11 |
Passing Downs | 1.75 | 1.54 | 1.79 |
Line Stats | USC | Washington | Nat'l Avg |
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 4.19 | 2.64 | 2.84 |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 10.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 21.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% |
Turnovers | USC | Washington |
---|---|---|
Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
Turnover Points (what's this?) | 13.0 | 4.1 |
Turnover Margin | Washington +2 | |
Exp. TO Margin | Washington +0.95 | |
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Washington +1.05 | |
TO Points Margin | Washington +8.9 points | |
Situational | USC | Washington |
Q1 S&P | 0.519 | 0.490 |
Q2 S&P | 0.581 | 0.479 |
Q3 S&P | 0.417 | 0.677 |
Q4 S&P | 0.665 | 0.293 |
1st Down S&P | 0.523 | 0.489 |
2nd Down S&P | 0.677 | 0.615 |
3rd Down S&P | 0.524 | 0.343 |
Projected Scoring Margin: Washington by 7.1 | ||
Actual Scoring Margin: Washington by 5 |
The fact that Washington's average starting position was the 37.5 yard line and the Huskies only scored 17 points, tells you USC may have been lucky to only lose this game by five points. I know the projected scoring margin says only 7.1, but there were several missed opportunities from the Washington offense to blow this game open.
The first quarter was one of the worst quarters of football ever played, and this game as a whole largely resembled this one. The efficiency was mostly there for the Trojans, but the explosiveness wasn't and the field position was largely horrendous.
Formations/Basics
Washington | USC | |||
Backs-Wide | % of Plays | Yds/Play | % of Plays | Yds/Play |
1 back, 2 wide | 4.5% | 10.0 | 14.5% | 7.9 |
1 back, 3 wide | 28.8% | 4.1 | 40.6% | 5.7 |
1 back, 4 wide | 31.8% | 4.4 | 15.9% | 2.8 |
2 backs, 2 wide | 7.6% | 1.4 | 20.3% | 4.1 |
2 backs, 3 wide | 24.2% | 5.6 | 8.7% | 3.2 |
3 backs, 2 wide | 3.0% | 4.5 |
No Huddle? | % of Plays | Yds/Play |
Washington | 6.1% | 2.8 |
USC | 100.0% | 5.0 |
Washington | USC | |||
Hash | % of Plays | Yds/Play | % of Plays | Yds/Play |
Left | 37.9% | 4.2 | 39.1% | 4.9 |
Middle | 18.2% | 3.9 | 21.7% | 6.1 |
Right | 43.9% | 5.3 | 39.1% | 4.6 |
Something that should be noted here is that although USC managed a competent five yards per play, that was largely thanks to a running game that averaged 6.3 yards per play. The passing offense, which, mind you, was going against a supposedly questionable pass defense, averaged 4.6. So bad. This was such an atrocious performance by the passing game, and what made it worse was the coaching staff's lack of ability to adjust the game plan to commit even more to the run.
Passing
Washington | USC | |||||
Passing | Comp Rt | Yds/Pass | Passing | Comp Rt | Yds/Pass | |
Behind Line | 1-2, 1 yards | 50.0% | 0.5 | 6-9, 28 yards | 66.7% | 3.1 |
0 to 4 | 7-10, 47 yards | 70.0% | 4.7 | 5-7, 53 yards | 71.4% | 7.6 |
5 to 9 | 7-9, 67 yards | 77.8% | 7.4 | 2-3, 17 yards | 66.7% | 5.7 |
10 to 19 | 0-3, 0 yards | 0.0% | 0.0 | 3-8, 58 yards | 37.5% | 7.3 |
20 to 29 | 2-4, 49 yards | 50.0% | 12.3 | 0-2, 0 yards | 0.0% | 0.0 |
30-plus | 0-5, 0 yards | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0-0, 0 yards | N/A | N/A |
Washington | USC | |
% Blitz: | 24.2% | 14.7% |
Avg. Rushers | 4.2 | 4.2 |
Passing (no blitz) | 10-23, 106 yards, 2 sacks, 4.2 yds. per att. | 12-25, 106 yards, 4 sacks, 3.7 yds. per att. |
Passing (blitz) | 5-8, 39 yards, 0 sacks, 4.9 yds. per att. | 4-4, 50 yards, 1 sacks, 10.0 yds. per att. |
Reason for INC/INT | Washington | USC |
QB Fault | 8 | 3 |
Good Defense | 5 | 7 |
WR Fault | 3 | 3 |
Cody Kessler was dismal in this game -- four of five sacks were his fault, either because he bailed on the pocket too quickly or held onto the ball for too long. He threw two passes over 20 yards; one was a double-covered jump ball in the end-zone, and the other was a throw down the right sideline into triple coverage after he'd left the pocket.
Kessler was lucky to not have four total INTs, as there was a pass over the middle intended for Juju Smith-Schuster that looked as if he hadn't seen the coverage at all. A lot of credit has to go to Chris Petersen and Pete Kwiatkowski for making Kessler uncomfortable all night long and seemingly deploy coverages that he hadn't seen on tape. In Kessler's defense, Tre Madden did drop what could've been a two-point conversion, and Justin Davis dropped a very easy ball on the last Trojan drive of the game.
As for Jake Browning, he looked very much like a freshman as he had four overthrows that could have been big plays for the Huskies. Two of the throws (one intended for Dante Pettis, the other for Josh Perkins) occurred in the first quarter and very easily could have led to a 10-0 Washington lead
Chris Petersen decided to attack the middle of the field -- specifically, USC freshman MLB Cam Smith -- for 39% (13/33) of Washington's pass plays. All but one of the attempts over the middle of the field came within 12 yards of the line of scrimmage, and Smith often looked out of position in coverage or was trying to cheat.
Rushing
Washington | USC | |||
Rush-Yds | YPC | Rush-Yds | YPC | |
To Edge | 4-11 | 2.8 | 15-100 | 6.7 |
Toward Tackle | 14-88 | 6.3 | 10-50 | 5.0 |
Up Middle | 8-41 | 5.1 | 5-39 | 7.8 |
USC could have run the ball for the entirety of the second half and won this game. The numbers said that the USC run game might struggle against Washington, however they had no issues at all. Ronald Jones II and Tre Madden both averaged over 7 yards per carry, and Jones was the only USC player to reach the end-zone. He is the most dynamic tailback, and new coach Clay Helton would be wise to get him more carries going forward.
QB Activity
Washington | USC | |||||
QB Move | Rushes-Yds | Passes-Yds | Sacks-Yds | Rushes-Yds | Passes-Yds | Sacks-Yds |
Sack - in pocket | 1-(-4) | |||||
Sack - coverage sack | 1-(-4) | |||||
Sack - QB fault | 4-(-14) |
The fifth sack Kessler took simply a case of too many rushers and not enough lineman. This is surely a game he and many Trojan fans would want to forget.
***
It almost seems like a dream that a game was played by USC last Thursday, given the chaos of Sunday and Monday. I will echo what the guys over at the Solid Verbal tweeted out. Alcoholism is a disease, and it needs to be treated as one. Coaches often use the term Dream Job when describing taking a position, but when Sarkisian was hired and said it, you could see that he meant it. It was sad to see this end the way it did for him. Hopefully he gets treatment and gets healthy. That is the most important thing for him right now.
Goes w/out saying, but there isn’t a anything funny re: Sark’s alcoholism. Don’t make the Gameday signs, don’t send the tweets. Just don’t.
— The Solid Verbal (@SolidVerbal) October 11, 2015
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