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Texas 24, Oklahoma 17: You can win a lot of games by controlling big plays and the trenches

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Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

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Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

134

Texas

2

12

91

3

D'Onta Foreman Rush for 81, FIRST DOWN

0.771

0.156

2

26

Texas

5

0

0

1

KICKOFF

0.697

0.102

3

155

Oklahoma

2

1

1

4

Samaje Perine Rush for 1, TOUCHDOWN

0.933

-0.087

4

25

Texas

1

65

65

1

PENALTY

0.611

0.086

5

13

Oklahoma

3

8

51

1

Baker Mayfield Rush for -5

0.477

0.077

Texas 24, Oklahoma 17

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Oklahoma Texas Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 65 70
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.0 27.3 29.6
Possessions 10 12
Scoring Opportunities*
3 5
Points Per Opportunity 5.67 4.80 4.76
Leverage Rate** 67.7% 65.7% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.533 0.566 0.585
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oklahoma Texas
Total 25.5 34.0
Rushing 10.7 29.0
Passing 14.8 5.0
Success Rate (what's this?) Oklahoma Texas Nat'l Avg
All (close) 44.6% 41.4% 41.5%
Rushing (close) 41.9% 42.9% 42.5%
Passing (close) 47.1% 35.7% 40.5%
Standard Downs 54.6% 41.3% 47.0%
Passing Downs 23.8% 41.7% 29.8%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oklahoma Texas Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.88 1.17 1.26
Rushing (close) 0.82 1.21 1.07
Passing (close) 0.92 1.00 1.48
Standard Downs 0.91 0.81 1.11
Passing Downs 0.71 1.86 1.79
Line Stats Oklahoma Texas Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.73 3.14 2.84
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 9.5% 14.3% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 30.8% 14.3% 7.2%
Turnovers Oklahoma Texas
Turnovers 0 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.0 0.0
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Texas +0.51
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Oklahoma +0.51
TO Points Margin Texas +4.0 points
Situational Oklahoma Texas
Q1 S&P 0.274 0.630
Q2 S&P 0.498 0.356
Q3 S&P 0.725 0.664
Q4 S&P 0.543 0.524
1st Down S&P 0.500 0.564
2nd Down S&P 0.595 0.469
3rd Down S&P 0.525 0.672
Projected Scoring Margin: Texas by 12.5
Actual Scoring Margin: Texas by 7

x

From today's Numerical:

In last week's S&P+ picks post, I noted that we were due a few huge upsets. As wild as this season has felt so far, we hadn't seen many outlandish results -- teams given at least a 90 percent chance of winning were actually 95-1, slightly better than projected.

We reeled in a couple of big, crazy results on Saturday. Flailing Rice, given only an 8 percent chance of winning at FAU (which seems wild until you notice just how poorly Rice had been performing of late), rallied from 12 down in the fourth quarter to win, 27-26.

Of course, the bigger result happened in the Cotton Bowl. Texas, given only a 5.9 percent chance of beating an Oklahoma team that was mastering the 'numbers' portion of the season test, perfected the underdog script. Utilizing an early game plan full of misdirection and, well, playing like an underdog should in a big rivalry game, Texas raced to a 14-0 first-quarter lead. It would score only 10 points the rest of the way, but the early cushion and a pass rush OU had no answers for eventually did the deed.

The Longhorns sacked Baker Mayfield six times in 34 pass attempts, and the early lead helped the Sooners forget they had Samaje Perine in the backfield too (though he did only gain 36 yards in his paltry 10 carries). OU found a little bit of a rhythm in the second half but still finished with only 17 points, and the Texas offense found just enough of a second-half burst -- a long field goal drive to start the second half, and an 81-yard D'Onta Foreman run that set up a short Caleb Bluiett TD -- to hold on for a 24-17 win.

It feels odd when a rivalry this storied produces such a lopsided projection, but it was pretty justifiable. Oklahoma had just put together a wonderful performance against a good WVU team and had scored a top-30 road win with its comeback against Tennessee. Meanwhile, after gut-wrenching home defeats against Cal and Oklahoma State (two good but not great teams), Texas had just gotten its doors blown off, 50-7, by a TCU team that is still trying to figure out how to play defense (points per game allowed against SMU, Texas Tech, and Kansas State: 44.7).

But rivalries have a way of giving you both great contests when teams are evenly matched and shocking contests when the matchups are lopsided. We'll see if this redefines either Oklahoma's or Texas' respective seasons, or if it's just a WTF result; either way, it made for a more thrilling early session of games than we expected.

Texas dramatically won the battle in the trenches and limited OU to dinks and dunks. You can win a lot of games doing that.