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Florida State 29, Miami 24: Dalvin Cook is a Seminole, therefore FSU is still undefeated

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Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

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Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

152

Miami (Florida)

3

6

29

4

Brad Kaaya Pass to Stacy Coley for 29, TOUCHDOWN

0.770

-0.281

2

163

Florida State

1

10

23

4

Dalvin Cook Rush for 23, TOUCHDOWN

0.673

0.152

3

11

Florida State

2

3

72

1

Dalvin Cook Rush for 72, TOUCHDOWN

0.566

0.152

4

189

Florida State

2

12

44

4

KNEELDOWN

0.885

0.115

5

20

Miami (Florida)

3

6

19

1

Brad Kaaya Pass to Braxton Berrios for 14, FIRST DOWN

0.668

-0.107

Florida State 29, Miami 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida State Miami Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 69 68
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.9 18.5 29.6
Possessions 12 11
Scoring Opportunities*
7 4
Points Per Opportunity 4.29 6.00 4.76
Leverage Rate** 69.6% 61.8% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.694 0.593 0.585
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida State Miami
Total 50.4 37.3
Rushing 25.2 2.2
Passing 25.2 35.0
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida State Miami Nat'l Avg
All (close) 50.7% 35.3% 41.5%
Rushing (close) 48.6% 23.5% 42.5%
Passing (close) 52.9% 39.2% 40.5%
Standard Downs 52.1% 45.2% 47.0%
Passing Downs 47.6% 19.2% 29.8%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida State Miami Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.44 1.55 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.48 0.56 1.07
Passing (close) 1.40 1.75 1.48
Standard Downs 1.35 1.31 1.11
Passing Downs 1.68 2.46 1.79
Line Stats Florida State Miami Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.09 1.52 2.84
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 6.3% 0.0% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 9.1% 7.2%
Turnovers Florida State Miami
Turnovers 0 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 0.0
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Florida State +2.7
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Miami +2.7
TO Points Margin +0
Situational Florida State Miami
Q1 S&P 0.884 0.534
Q2 S&P 0.712 0.742
Q3 S&P 0.535 0.591
Q4 S&P 0.606 0.622
1st Down S&P 0.731 0.611
2nd Down S&P 0.663 0.610
3rd Down S&P 0.822 0.590
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 13.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 5

Dalvin Cook of Miami Central high school first committed to Clemson, then committed to Florida. In December 2013, he signed financial aid agreements with FSU, Florida, and Miami (because they are not letters of intent and you could sign more than one). Supposedly Miami was always his third choice of those three, but in the end, Cook ended up in Tallahassee. And FSU is still undefeated because of it.

25 touches, 269 yards, three touchdowns. If Cook signs with Miami, Miami beats FSU and Al Golden probably isn't on the hot seat. If Cook signs with Florida, Miami still likely beats FSU on October 10. But he signed with FSU. And for this game, that mattered more than anything else.