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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability Before Play |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
152 |
Miami (Florida) |
3 |
6 |
29 |
4 |
Brad Kaaya Pass to Stacy Coley for 29, TOUCHDOWN |
0.770 |
-0.281 |
|
2 |
163 |
Florida State |
1 |
10 |
23 |
4 |
Dalvin Cook Rush for 23, TOUCHDOWN |
0.673 |
0.152 |
|
3 |
11 |
Florida State |
2 |
3 |
72 |
1 |
Dalvin Cook Rush for 72, TOUCHDOWN |
0.566 |
0.152 |
|
4 |
189 |
Florida State |
2 |
12 |
44 |
4 |
KNEELDOWN |
0.885 |
0.115 |
|
5 |
20 |
Miami (Florida) |
3 |
6 |
19 |
1 |
Brad Kaaya Pass to Braxton Berrios for 14, FIRST DOWN |
0.668 |
-0.107 |
Florida State 29, Miami 24
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Florida State | Miami | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 69 | 68 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 30.9 | 18.5 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 12 | 11 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 4 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.29 | 6.00 | 4.76 |
| Leverage Rate** | 69.6% | 61.8% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.694 | 0.593 | 0.585 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Florida State | Miami | |
| Total | 50.4 | 37.3 | |
| Rushing | 25.2 | 2.2 | |
| Passing | 25.2 | 35.0 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Florida State | Miami | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 50.7% | 35.3% | 41.5% |
| Rushing (close) | 48.6% | 23.5% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 52.9% | 39.2% | 40.5% |
| Standard Downs | 52.1% | 45.2% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 47.6% | 19.2% | 29.8% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Florida State | Miami | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.44 | 1.55 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.48 | 0.56 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.40 | 1.75 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 1.35 | 1.31 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.68 | 2.46 | 1.79 |
| Line Stats | Florida State | Miami | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.09 | 1.52 | 2.84 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 6.3% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 9.1% | 7.2% |
| Turnovers | Florida State | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Florida State +2.7 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Miami +2.7 | |
| TO Points Margin | +0 | |
| Situational | Florida State | Miami |
| Q1 S&P | 0.884 | 0.534 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.712 | 0.742 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.535 | 0.591 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.606 | 0.622 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.731 | 0.611 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.663 | 0.610 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.822 | 0.590 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 13.2 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 5 | ||
Dalvin Cook of Miami Central high school first committed to Clemson, then committed to Florida. In December 2013, he signed financial aid agreements with FSU, Florida, and Miami (because they are not letters of intent and you could sign more than one). Supposedly Miami was always his third choice of those three, but in the end, Cook ended up in Tallahassee. And FSU is still undefeated because of it.
25 touches, 269 yards, three touchdowns. If Cook signs with Miami, Miami beats FSU and Al Golden probably isn't on the hot seat. If Cook signs with Florida, Miami still likely beats FSU on October 10. But he signed with FSU. And for this game, that mattered more than anything else.
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