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Tennessee 38, Georgia 31: Look, Georgia, I good to you ... I stick up for you...

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Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

ugatenn

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

28

Tennessee

1

1

1

1

Jalen Hurd Rush for -3, FUMBLE

0.755

-0.404

2

152

Georgia

1

10

48

4

Greyson Lambert Pass to Reggie Davis for 48, TOUCHDOWN

0.799

-0.243

3

207

Georgia

2

15

27

4

Greyson Lambert Pass to Malcolm Mitchell for 0

0.829

0.171

4

8

Tennessee

1

10

62

1

Joshua Dobbs Pass INTERCEPTED

0.596

-0.122

5

179

Tennessee

1

5

5

4

Joshua Dobbs Rush for 5, TOUCHDOWN

0.771

0.121

Tennessee 38, Georgia 31

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Georgia Tennessee Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 65 90
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 21.2 33.2 29.6
Possessions 13 15
Scoring Opportunities*
5 8
Points Per Opportunity 3.40 4.75 4.76
Leverage Rate** 61.5% 67.8% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.682 0.607 0.585
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Georgia Tennessee
Total 43.6 50.7
Rushing 19.5 21.7
Passing 24.1 29.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Georgia Tennessee Nat'l Avg
All (close) 30.8% 43.3% 41.5%
Rushing (close) 22.6% 42.6% 42.5%
Passing (close) 38.2% 44.2% 40.5%
Standard Downs 37.5% 44.3% 47.0%
Passing Downs 20.0% 41.4% 29.8%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Georgia Tennessee Nat'l Avg
All (close) 2.18 1.30 1.26
Rushing (close) 2.78 1.08 1.07
Passing (close) 1.86 1.53 1.48
Standard Downs 2.21 1.03 1.11
Passing Downs 2.11 1.92 1.79
Line Stats Georgia Tennessee Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.98 2.74 2.84
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 5.9% 0.0% 5.0%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 3.7% 7.2%
Turnovers Georgia Tennessee
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.4 17.5
Turnover Margin Georgia +1
Exp. TO Margin Tennessee +1.02
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Georgia +2.02
TO Points Margin Georgia +13.1 points
Situational Georgia Tennessee
Q1 S&P 0.630 0.584
Q2 S&P 0.911 0.577
Q3 S&P 0.450 0.682
Q4 S&P 0.644 0.640
1st Down S&P 0.681 0.557
2nd Down S&P 0.704 0.523
3rd Down S&P 0.728 0.631
Projected Scoring Margin: Georgia by 6.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Tennessee by 7

Micro view: Your best player, and one of the best in college football, gets hurt on the first play of the game, and you're going to lose your edge. That's just the way it is.

Slightly more macro view: Georgia jumped out to a 24-3 lead. Not much of a problem with "edge" there, even if there was some luck/randomness involved (a fumble return touchdown and a punt return touchdown).

20,000-foot view: I feel like Pedro Cerrano with Jobu anytime I talk about Georgia. I think Mark Richt is one of the classiest, most consistent coaches in the game, and the Dawgs prove their upside just enough that I hold them in incredibly high regard. That pays off frequently ... and backfires just enough to start to enrage me after a while. I assumed Georgia's defense would take a nice step forward this season, and I assumed that, between Greyson Lambert and Brice Ramsey, a solid QB would emerge. But Lambert was terrible against Alabama and inefficient against Tennessee, and the defense has fallen from 21st in Def. S&P+ to 51st in two weeks.

For all we know, the Dawgs will now win out, finish 11-3 or better, and mostly prove me right. (That would actually be rather infuriating because it would suck me right back into making them a top-5 team next year.) But the performances -- not the losses, but the quality of the performances -- of the last two weeks have been beneath what I expected. And it's probably my fault for having too much faith to begin with.