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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability Before Play |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
79 |
Utah |
1 |
10 |
54 |
2 |
Travis Wilson Pass to Cory Butler-Byrd for 54, TOUCHDOWN |
0.626 |
0.147 |
|
2 |
201 |
Utah |
3 |
12 |
81 |
4 |
Kneeldown |
0.861 |
0.139 |
|
3 |
174 |
California |
1 |
10 |
35 |
4 |
Jared Goff Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.752 |
0.131 |
|
4 |
62 |
Utah |
2 |
6 |
56 |
2 |
Travis Wilson Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.697 |
-0.129 |
|
5 |
37 |
Utah |
1 |
10 |
40 |
1 |
Devontae Booker Rush for 40, TOUCHDOWN |
0.520 |
0.115 |
Utah 30, California 24
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | California | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 75 | 77 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 30.5 | 33.6 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 15 | 16 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
9 | 7 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 2.67 | 4.29 | 4.76 |
| Leverage Rate** | 72.0% | 71.4% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.627 | 0.572 | 0.585 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | California | Utah | |
| Total | 42.1 | 39.1 | |
| Rushing | 11.5 | 24.0 | |
| Passing | 30.5 | 15.1 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | California | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 50.7% | 39.0% | 41.5% |
| Rushing (close) | 60.0% | 42.0% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 46.0% | 33.3% | 40.5% |
| Standard Downs | 59.3% | 49.1% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 28.6% | 13.6% | 29.8% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | California | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.11 | 1.30 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.77 | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.33 | 1.68 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 0.95 | 1.28 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.93 | 1.51 | 1.79 |
| Line Stats | California | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 4.29 | 3.33 | 2.84 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 9.4% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% |
| Turnovers | California | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 6 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 23.7 | 12.4 |
| Turnover Margin | Utah +3 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Utah +1.76 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Utah +1.24 | |
| TO Points Margin | Utah +11.3 points | |
| Situational | California | Utah |
| Q1 S&P | 0.704 | 0.623 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.646 | 0.661 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.676 | 0.595 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.544 | 0.352 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.649 | 0.616 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.658 | 0.675 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.646 | 0.440 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Utah by 8.4 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Utah by 6 | ||
Because of the title race, we end up viewing games like this in terms of both the entertainment they provide and what they can tell us about the future. For the former, this game was nuts. Instability can be pretty fun, after all. You had nine turnovers, you had the Utah offense stopping Cal in Ute territory twice in the fourth quarter, you had a few big plays, you had plot twists. You had a lot.
In terms of what it can tell us about the future, though? It told me that I still don't trust Utah. And maybe that's on me. From a resume standpoint, the Utes should rank awfully high -- the Michigan win just keeps looking better, and even though Wazzu also just won in Eugene, the Cougars didn't do it by 42 points like Utah.
But I don't look at things from a resume standpoint, especially not in mid-October. Utah looks like a fun, aggressive, top-20 team to me, maybe even top-10 or top-15. But they don't look like a true national title-caliber team. At least, they don't yet.
It's not up to me, though. Go 13-0 and it doesn't matter. Go 12-1, and it might not matter. So we'll see. I encourage more games like this, though. That was fun.
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