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When I was redesigning S&P+ this past offseason, I tinkered quite a bit with seeing how aggressively I could remove the preseason projections and let the current year's data stand on its own. I used to follow the general approach of phasing things out a little at a time for seven weeks; what I found in said tinkering was that I could pretty much lop them off after four weeks with, on average, the same results.
We're down to 10% projections this week, and that means there's going to be some volatility in the rankings in the coming weeks. This makes me nervous -- as you'll see below, S&P+ and Vegas disagree quite a bit on a lot of these games -- but on average, it seems to work. We'll see.
It's working reasonably well so far!
- Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
- Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
- Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
- Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
- OVERALL: 102-87-3 (54%)
This could be an interesting week. Either S&P+ knows way more than Vegas ... or this aggressive use of 2015 data will backfire. We'll see.
Win probabilities
I've mentioned a few times that my main goals aren't to have the single best against-the-spread system in the world -- I just want to be over 50% (preferably closer to 53-54%), and I want the win probabilities to match up. So far this year, the win probabilities are not matching up at all ... granted, in the best possible way...
| Win Prob. Range | Last Week | Overall | Win% |
| 50-59% | 4-6 | 19-18 | 51.4% |
| 60-69% | 10-1 | 41-9 | 82.0% |
| 70-79% | 11-2 | 45-7 | 86.5% |
| 80-89% | 7-2 | 56-9 | 86.2% |
| 90-99% | 16-0 | 84-1 | 98.8% |
That's an 85% win percentage overall -- 51% on what are basically 50-50 games and 90% on all the others. That they're not falling into range more is a little bit of a worry ... but I'm only going to worry so much when it's simply getting the picks right. We'll see. Probably due a course correction week at some point.
Thursday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 7:30 PM | ESPN | Miami-FL at Cincinnati | +6.5 | Miami-FL (39.3-24.1) | 15.2 | 81.0% | Miami-FL |
Friday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Temple at Charlotte | +24 | Temple (33.4-10.0) | 23.4 | 91.2% | Charlotte |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Memphis at South Florida | +9 | Memphis (31.5-28.5) | 3.0 | 56.8% | South Florida |
| 10:15 PM | ESPN2 | Connecticut at BYU | -18 | BYU (35.9-16.2) | 19.7 | 87.2% | BYU |
Saturday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 12:00 PM | ABC | Texas at TCU | -15 | TCU (40.4-26.5) | 13.9 | 78.9% | Texas |
| 12:00 PM | BTN | Minnesota at Northwestern | -4.5 | Minnesota (21.5-19.1) | 2.4 | 55.6% | Minnesota |
| 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Houston at Tulsa | +7 | Tulsa (41.3-33.4) | 7.9 | 67.6% | Tulsa |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN | Iowa at Wisconsin | -7 | Wisconsin (32.3-21.3) | 11.0 | 73.7% | Wisconsin |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Purdue at Michigan State | -2 | Michigan State (42.0-16.6) | 25.3 | 92.8% | Michigan State |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech | -5 | Virginia Tech (31.4-27.0) | 4.4 | 60.0% | Pittsburgh |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNN | Central Florida at Tulane | Tulane (27.5-21.5) | 5.9 | 63.4% | ||
| 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Army at Penn State | Penn State (42.6-13.3) | 29.3 | 95.5% | ||
| 12:00 PM | FS1 | West Virginia at Oklahoma | -7 | Oklahoma (28.3-28.0) | 0.2 | 50.5% | West Virginia |
| 12:00 PM | SECN | South Carolina at Missouri | -4 | South Carolina (28.9-22.3) | 6.6 | 64.8% | South Carolina |
| 12:00 PM | FSN Affiliates | Kansas at Iowa State | -16 | Iowa State (44.3-15.3) | 29.0 | 95.3% | Iowa State |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Louisville at NC State | -4.5 | Louisville (29.4-29.1) | 0.3 | 50.7% | Louisville |
| 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Ohio at Akron | +3 | Ohio (30.7-25.7) | 5.1 | 61.5% | Ohio |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Toledo at Ball State | +6.5 | Toledo (30.3-24.2) | 6.0 | 63.6% | Ball State |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Northern Illinois at Central Michigan | +3 | Northern Illinois (28.7-22.5) | 6.2 | 64.0% | Northern Illinois |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Florida International at Massachusetts | -3 | Massachusetts (35.2-27.2) | 8.1 | 67.9% | Massachusetts |
| 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Ohio State at Indiana | +21 | Ohio State (39.9-20.1) | 19.8 | 87.3% | Indiana |
| 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Baylor vs. Texas Tech | +17 | Baylor (47.2-39.0) | 8.2 | 68.1% | Texas Tech |
| 3:30 PM | BTN | Nebraska at Illinois | +7 | Illinois (29.8-23.8) | 6.0 | 63.6% | Illinois |
| 3:30 PM | CBS | Alabama at Georgia | -2 | Alabama (32.3-20.4) | 11.8 | 75.3% | Alabama |
| 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Air Force at Navy | -5.5 | Navy (34.0-29.4) | 4.6 | 60.5% | Air Force |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN | Florida State at Wake Forest | +19 | Florida State (42.6-9.5) | 33.0 | 97.2% | Florida State |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Bowling Green at Buffalo | +8.5 | Bowling Green (38.2-27.0) | 11.2 | 74.1% | Bowling Green |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Wyoming at Appalachian State | -5 | Appalachian State (45.7-12.9) | 32.8 | 97.1% | Appalachian State |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Boston College at Duke | -7 | Duke (20.1-11.3) | 8.7 | 69.3% | Duke |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Miami-OH at Kent State | -10.5 | Kent State (21.4-11.8) | 9.6 | 71.0% | Miami-OH |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Liberty at Georgia State | Liberty (32.2-31.4) | 0.8 | 51.9% | ||
| 3:30 PM | ESPNU | North Carolina at Georgia Tech | -7 | Georgia Tech (35.7-22.2) | 13.5 | 78.3% | Georgia Tech |
| 3:30 PM | FSN Affiliates | Western Kentucky at Rice | +7.5 | Western Kentucky (45.9-21.9) | 24.0 | 91.7% | Western Kentucky |
| 3:30 PM | CSCA | Old Dominion at Marshall | -18.5 | Marshall (31.5-20.6) | 10.9 | 73.5% | Old Dominion |
| 4:00 PM | ESPNN | East Carolina at SMU | +5.5 | East Carolina (40.1-28.9) | 11.2 | 74.2% | East Carolina |
| 4:00 PM | FS1 | Kansas State at Oklahoma State | -7.5 | Kansas State (26.7-25.9) | 0.8 | 51.8% | Kansas State |
| 4:00 PM | Pac-12 | Washington State at California | -19 | California (43.3-19.6) | 23.7 | 91.4% | California |
| 4:00 PM | SECN | San Jose State at Auburn | -20 | Auburn (36.0-24.7) | 11.3 | 74.3% | San Jose State |
| 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee | -1 | Middle Tennessee (26.0-25.8) | 0.3 | 50.6% | Vanderbilt |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN | Ole Miss at Florida | +7.5 | Ole Miss (32.4-24.5) | 8.0 | 67.7% | Ole Miss |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Arkansas at Tennessee | -6.5 | Tennessee (35.6-30.9) | 4.7 | 60.7% | Arkansas |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia Southern at UL-Monroe | +6 | Georgia Southern (31.1-21.6) | 9.5 | 70.8% | Georgia Southern |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Colorado State at Utah State | -4.5 | Colorado State (27.8-20.0) | 7.8 | 67.5% | Colorado State |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | South Alabama at Troy | -6 | Troy (37.6-26.2) | 11.4 | 74.6% | Troy |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Idaho at Arkansas State | -20 | Arkansas State (39.4-22.3) | 17.1 | 83.8% | Idaho |
| 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Eastern Michigan at LSU | -44.5 | LSU (55.5-12.0) | 43.5 | 99.4% | Eastern Michigan |
| 7:00 PM | MWC Video | UNLV at Nevada | -7 | Nevada (29.3-27.3) | 1.9 | 54.5% | UNLV |
| 7:00 PM | FCS | North Texas at Southern Miss | -16 | Southern Miss (40.0-22.9) | 17.1 | 83.9% | Southern Miss |
| 7:00 PM | ASN | UL-Lafayette at Louisiana Tech | -18 | Louisiana Tech (45.8-20.1) | 25.7 | 93.1% | Louisiana Tech |
| 7:30 PM | Fox | Arizona State at UCLA | -13.5 | UCLA (36.9-21.4) | 15.5 | 81.5% | UCLA |
| 7:30 PM | SECN | Mississippi State at Texas A&M | -7 | Texas A&M (36.5-28.4) | 8.0 | 67.9% | Texas A&M |
| 7:30 PM | SECN | Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky | Kentucky (45.2-12.5) | 32.7 | 97.1% | ||
| 8:00 PM | ABC | Notre Dame at Clemson | 0 | Clemson (33.0-24.2) | 8.8 | 69.5% | Clemson |
| 8:00 PM | BTN | Michigan at Maryland | +16 | Michigan (34.3-15.5) | 18.8 | 86.1% | Michigan |
| 8:00 PM | $Video | UTSA at UTEP | +3 | UTSA (45.1-24.4) | 20.7 | 88.4% | UTSA |
| 8:00 PM | RSRM | New Mexico State at New Mexico | -12.5 | New Mexico (37.5-27.5) | 9.9 | 71.7% | New Mexico State |
| 10:00 PM | ESPN | Oregon at Colorado | +8 | Oregon (34.8-27.0) | 7.8 | 67.3% | Colorado |
| 10:15 PM | ESPN2 | Hawaii at Boise State | -24.5 | Boise State (32.5-15.0) | 17.5 | 84.4% | Hawaii |
| 10:30 PM | CBSSN | Fresno State at San Diego State | -9 | San Diego State (28.8-22.9) | 5.8 | 63.2% | Fresno State |
| 10:30 PM | Pac-12 | Arizona at Stanford | Stanford (43.3-22.3) | 21.0 | 88.8% |
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