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Tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo, tempo.
It's impossible to watch an Oregon game (or a Baylor game, or West Virginia, or TCU, or Washington State, or even BYU at this point) without hearing the T-word mentioned ad nauseum. The Ducks have one of the most up-tempo offenses in the country, and in last week's Rose Bowl, not even a month of preparation could help Florida State's defense figure out how to get off its collective heels once the Ducks knocked the Seminoles backwards.
For a while now, I've been using what I call Adjusted Pace to measure tempo. You can find updated ratings in the second table at the Off. S&P+ page (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff2014). I have used the relationship between two numbers -- plays per game and run rate -- to create an expected plays measure. Run plays are likely to finish with a running clock because there are no incomplete passes, obviously, so teams that run a lot probably aren't inclined to finish with as many plays per game even if they're moving at a nuclear tempo.
Look at a team's run-pass ratio and compare its plays per game to the expected value, and voila: you have an adjusted pace number that looks at the difference between the two.
That approach has begun to irk me a bit, though. Using plays per game is alright, but it doesn't take into account the simple facts that a) good offenses tend to end up with more plays per game because they aren't going three-and-out as much, and b) big-play offenses might not need as many plays per game to score either.
So let's change things up a bit. Instead of plays per game, let's use the same approach for a different measure: seconds per play. I should have been doing this all along, but the overall approach is the same: create an expected value based on the relationship between seconds per play and run-pass ratios. Compare expected to actual, and boom, you've got a new, better Adjusted Pace measure.
The results aren't going to be THAT different, of course. Baylor's still the fastest in the world, and Oregon's still not far behind. But this grounded more in proper thought.
| Offense | Seconds per play | Rk | % Run | Exp. seconds per play | Difference | Rk |
| Baylor | 18.0 | 1 | 52.3% | 23.8 | -5.8 | 1 |
| Arizona | 18.3 | 2 | 47.1% | 23.2 | -4.9 | 2 |
| Oregon | 19.5 | 6 | 55.8% | 24.3 | -4.8 | 3 |
| Bowling Green | 18.6 | 3 | 47.8% | 23.3 | -4.7 | 4 |
| BYU | 19.3 | 5 | 50.7% | 23.7 | -4.4 | 5 |
| North Carolina | 18.8 | 4 | 46.6% | 23.2 | -4.4 | 6 |
| West Virginia | 19.5 | 6 | 48.6% | 23.4 | -3.9 | 7 |
| Air Force | 23.1 | 49 | 78.2% | 27.0 | -3.9 | 8 |
| Memphis | 20.6 | 10 | 57.2% | 24.4 | -3.8 | 9 |
| Northern Illinois | 21.9 | 29 | 63.8% | 25.2 | -3.3 | 10 |
| Arkansas State | 20.8 | 14 | 53.8% | 24.0 | -3.2 | 11 |
| UAB | 21.9 | 29 | 62.2% | 25.0 | -3.1 | 12 |
| Texas State | 21.2 | 21 | 55.9% | 24.3 | -3.1 | 13 |
| Mississippi State | 21.3 | 22 | 55.4% | 24.2 | -2.9 | 14 |
| Marshall | 21.0 | 18 | 52.1% | 23.8 | -2.8 | 15 |
| New Mexico State | 20.8 | 14 | 49.8% | 23.6 | -2.8 | 16 |
| TCU | 20.7 | 12 | 47.3% | 23.2 | -2.5 | 17 |
| Fresno State | 21.0 | 18 | 48.1% | 23.3 | -2.3 | 18 |
| Texas Tech | 19.8 | 8 | 37.4% | 22.1 | -2.3 | 19 |
| Washington | 22.4 | 36 | 57.7% | 24.5 | -2.1 | 20 |
| Indiana | 22.7 | 42 | 60.2% | 24.8 | -2.1 | 21 |
| Arizona State | 21.3 | 22 | 48.3% | 23.4 | -2.1 | 22 |
| UCLA | 21.8 | 27 | 52.2% | 23.8 | -2.0 | 23 |
| Western Kentucky | 20.6 | 10 | 41.6% | 22.6 | -2.0 | 24 |
| California | 20.7 | 12 | 42.4% | 22.6 | -1.9 | 25 |
| Offense | Seconds per play | Rk | % Run | Exp. seconds per play | Difference | Rk |
| UNLV | 21.0 | 18 | 44.4% | 22.9 | -1.9 | 26 |
| Texas A&M | 20.8 | 14 | 42.4% | 22.7 | -1.9 | 27 |
| East Carolina | 20.3 | 9 | 37.4% | 22.1 | -1.8 | 28 |
| Auburn | 23.4 | 55 | 63.0% | 25.2 | -1.8 | 29 |
| Northwestern | 21.6 | 24 | 48.0% | 23.3 | -1.7 | 30 |
| Massachusetts | 20.8 | 14 | 40.8% | 22.5 | -1.7 | 31 |
| Hawaii | 21.8 | 27 | 48.6% | 23.4 | -1.6 | 32 |
| Utah | 22.8 | 46 | 56.6% | 24.4 | -1.6 | 33 |
| Duke | 22.2 | 32 | 49.9% | 23.6 | -1.4 | 34 |
| Nebraska | 23.4 | 55 | 59.7% | 24.8 | -1.4 | 35 |
| Tennessee | 22.2 | 32 | 49.4% | 23.5 | -1.3 | 36 |
| Middle Tennessee | 23.3 | 53 | 57.9% | 24.5 | -1.2 | 37 |
| Oklahoma State | 22.6 | 40 | 51.4% | 23.7 | -1.1 | 38 |
| Cincinnati | 22.0 | 31 | 46.2% | 23.1 | -1.1 | 39 |
| Georgia | 23.9 | 67 | 61.5% | 25.0 | -1.1 | 40 |
| Syracuse | 22.5 | 37 | 49.6% | 23.5 | -1.0 | 41 |
| Florida | 23.8 | 65 | 59.5% | 24.7 | -0.9 | 42 |
| Kentucky | 22.5 | 37 | 48.2% | 23.4 | -0.9 | 43 |
| Iowa State | 21.6 | 24 | 40.7% | 22.5 | -0.9 | 44 |
| Ole Miss | 22.7 | 42 | 49.0% | 23.5 | -0.8 | 45 |
| Houston | 22.7 | 42 | 48.9% | 23.4 | -0.7 | 46 |
| Idaho | 22.3 | 34 | 45.3% | 23.0 | -0.7 | 47 |
| Clemson | 23.1 | 49 | 51.9% | 23.8 | -0.7 | 48 |
| Appalachian State | 24.1 | 72 | 60.1% | 24.8 | -0.7 | 49 |
| Toledo | 23.7 | 62 | 56.8% | 24.4 | -0.7 | 50 |
| Offense | Seconds per play | Rk | % Run | Exp. seconds per play | Difference | Rk |
| Navy | 26.8 | 110 | 82.4% | 27.5 | -0.7 | 51 |
| Oklahoma | 23.9 | 67 | 58.2% | 24.6 | -0.7 | 52 |
| USC | 23.0 | 48 | 50.0% | 23.6 | -0.6 | 53 |
| Ohio State | 24.2 | 76 | 59.3% | 24.7 | -0.5 | 54 |
| South Alabama | 23.5 | 58 | 53.3% | 24.0 | -0.5 | 55 |
| Boise State | 23.7 | 62 | 54.8% | 24.2 | -0.5 | 56 |
| Colorado | 22.3 | 34 | 43.1% | 22.7 | -0.4 | 57 |
| Tulsa | 22.8 | 46 | 47.2% | 23.2 | -0.4 | 58 |
| Ball State | 23.5 | 58 | 51.0% | 23.7 | -0.2 | 59 |
| Nevada | 24.2 | 76 | 56.0% | 24.3 | -0.1 | 60 |
| N.C. State | 24.0 | 69 | 54.2% | 24.1 | -0.1 | 61 |
| Missouri | 24.0 | 69 | 54.1% | 24.1 | -0.1 | 62 |
| Notre Dame | 23.3 | 53 | 48.2% | 23.3 | 0.0 | 63 |
| Maryland | 23.1 | 49 | 46.2% | 23.1 | 0.0 | 64 |
| Eastern Michigan | 24.1 | 72 | 54.4% | 24.1 | 0.0 | 65 |
| Old Dominion | 22.5 | 37 | 40.9% | 22.5 | 0.0 | 66 |
| Temple | 23.2 | 52 | 45.3% | 23.0 | 0.2 | 67 |
| Troy | 24.4 | 80 | 53.5% | 24.0 | 0.4 | 68 |
| Akron | 22.6 | 40 | 38.2% | 22.1 | 0.5 | 69 |
| Ohio | 24.4 | 80 | 52.9% | 23.9 | 0.5 | 70 |
| Georgia Tech | 27.5 | 115 | 78.4% | 27.0 | 0.5 | 71 |
| North Texas | 24.8 | 86 | 56.0% | 24.3 | 0.5 | 72 |
| San Jose State | 23.8 | 65 | 47.6% | 23.3 | 0.5 | 73 |
| Georgia Southern | 27.8 | 117 | 80.0% | 27.2 | 0.6 | 74 |
| Virginia Tech | 24.1 | 72 | 49.4% | 23.5 | 0.6 | 75 |
| Offense | Seconds per play | Rk | % Run | Exp. seconds per play | Difference | Rk |
| Georgia State | 23.4 | 55 | 43.1% | 22.7 | 0.7 | 76 |
| Florida State | 23.6 | 60 | 44.4% | 22.9 | 0.7 | 77 |
| Louisiana Tech | 24.3 | 79 | 49.6% | 23.5 | 0.8 | 78 |
| Kansas | 24.6 | 84 | 52.1% | 23.8 | 0.8 | 79 |
| South Carolina | 24.1 | 72 | 47.7% | 23.3 | 0.8 | 80 |
| Alabama | 24.9 | 87 | 54.1% | 24.1 | 0.8 | 81 |
| UL-Monroe | 22.7 | 42 | 35.8% | 21.9 | 0.8 | 82 |
| Virginia | 24.4 | 80 | 49.3% | 23.5 | 0.9 | 83 |
| Illinois | 23.6 | 60 | 42.6% | 22.7 | 0.9 | 84 |
| Florida Atlantic | 24.9 | 87 | 52.2% | 23.8 | 1.1 | 85 |
| Iowa | 25.0 | 89 | 51.7% | 23.8 | 1.2 | 86 |
| Florida International | 25.5 | 96 | 55.5% | 24.2 | 1.3 | 87 |
| Colorado State | 24.4 | 80 | 46.3% | 23.1 | 1.3 | 88 |
| Central Florida | 25.2 | 93 | 52.9% | 23.9 | 1.3 | 89 |
| Army | 29.0 | 127 | 84.3% | 27.7 | 1.3 | 90 |
| Penn State | 24.0 | 69 | 42.9% | 22.7 | 1.3 | 91 |
| Southern Miss | 23.7 | 62 | 39.8% | 22.3 | 1.4 | 92 |
| Texas | 25.0 | 89 | 50.2% | 23.6 | 1.4 | 93 |
| Michigan State | 26.1 | 104 | 58.7% | 24.6 | 1.5 | 94 |
| UL-Lafayette | 25.9 | 100 | 57.0% | 24.4 | 1.5 | 95 |
| Buffalo | 25.5 | 96 | 52.7% | 23.9 | 1.6 | 96 |
| Washington State | 21.6 | 24 | 20.4% | 20.0 | 1.6 | 97 |
| LSU | 27.2 | 111 | 66.4% | 25.6 | 1.6 | 98 |
| New Mexico | 28.6 | 125 | 78.0% | 27.0 | 1.6 | 99 |
| Tulane | 24.7 | 85 | 45.7% | 23.1 | 1.6 | 100 |
| Offense | Seconds per play | Rk | % Run | Exp. seconds per play | Difference | Rk |
| Minnesota | 27.4 | 113 | 67.9% | 25.7 | 1.7 | 101 |
| UTSA | 25.5 | 96 | 51.6% | 23.8 | 1.7 | 102 |
| Utah State | 25.9 | 100 | 53.7% | 24.0 | 1.9 | 103 |
| Wisconsin | 27.4 | 113 | 65.6% | 25.5 | 1.9 | 104 |
| Purdue | 25.0 | 89 | 45.2% | 23.0 | 2.0 | 105 |
| Miami (Ohio) |
24.2 | 76 | 38.1% | 22.1 | 2.1 | 106 |
| Boston College | 28.2 | 123 | 69.9% | 26.0 | 2.2 | 107 |
| Rutgers | 26.5 | 105 | 55.9% | 24.3 | 2.2 | 108 |
| San Diego State | 26.7 | 106 | 57.2% | 24.4 | 2.3 | 109 |
| Louisville | 25.9 | 100 | 50.1% | 23.6 | 2.3 | 110 |
| Miami |
26.0 | 103 | 50.8% | 23.7 | 2.3 | 111 |
| Pittsburgh | 27.8 | 117 | 64.2% | 25.3 | 2.5 | 112 |
| Rice | 27.2 | 111 | 58.8% | 24.6 | 2.6 | 113 |
| Wake Forest | 25.4 | 95 | 43.7% | 22.8 | 2.6 | 114 |
| SMU | 25.1 | 92 | 40.1% | 22.4 | 2.7 | 115 |
| Arkansas | 27.8 | 117 | 59.4% | 24.7 | 3.1 | 116 |
| Kansas State | 26.7 | 106 | 50.1% | 23.6 | 3.1 | 117 |
| Connecticut | 26.7 | 106 | 49.7% | 23.5 | 3.2 | 118 |
| Oregon State | 25.7 | 99 | 40.1% | 22.4 | 3.3 | 119 |
| Kent State | 25.3 | 94 | 36.4% | 21.9 | 3.4 | 120 |
| South Florida | 26.7 | 106 | 47.9% | 23.3 | 3.4 | 121 |
| Western Michigan | 27.8 | 117 | 54.9% | 24.2 | 3.6 | 122 |
| Stanford | 27.8 | 117 | 53.2% | 24.0 | 3.8 | 123 |
| Central Michigan | 27.9 | 122 | 53.7% | 24.0 | 3.9 | 124 |
| Wyoming | 27.5 | 115 | 49.5% | 23.5 | 4.0 | 125 |
| Michigan | 28.7 | 126 | 53.1% | 24.0 | 4.7 | 126 |
| Vanderbilt | 28.3 | 124 | 49.1% | 23.5 | 4.8 | 127 |
| UTEP | 30.5 | 128 | 65.0% | 25.4 | 5.1 | 128 |
Barring any particularly awful, "you're missing something super-obvious here" feedback, I'll replace the current pace figures on the Off. S&P+ page with these next week when I post the final, post-championship ratings.
One interesting thing here: there is a slight correlation (0.217) between higher tempo and higher quality as measured by Off. F/+. The gut reaction to that is that higher tempo = good. But after some further thought, I think it's probably the other way around.
If you have a young quarterback, for instance, you might be inclined to slow the game down a bit for him, even if you are otherwise a tempo-happy coach. You've got to have the personnel to move quickly, otherwise you're just going three-and-out in record time.
And hey, some teams go fast no matter what; in Dino Babers' first year at Bowling Green, his Falcons ranked fourth in this tempo list but 97th in Off. F/+. Texas State was 13th and 101st, respectively, and New Mexico State was 16th and 105th. A lack of quality or quarterback experience might scare you into slowing down, but it isn't a guarantee, I guess.
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