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Study Hall: Texas A&M 35, Arkansas 28

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Texas A&M 35, Arkansas 28

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Basics Arkansas Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 74 68
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 27.6 29.7 29.8
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
7 7
Points Per Opportunity 4.00 5.00 4.72
Leverage Rate** 70.3% 66.2% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.525 0.585 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arkansas Texas A&M
Total 30.1 34.2
Rushing 19.6 7.9
Passing 10.5 26.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Arkansas Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
All (close) 40.5% 45.6% 42.1%
Rushing (close) 42.6% 48.2% 43.4%
Passing (close) 37.0% 43.9% 40.8%
Standard Downs 50.0% 53.3% 47.5%
Passing Downs 18.2% 30.4% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arkansas Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.00 1.10 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.98 0.61 0.72
Passing (close) 1.05 1.46 0.99
Standard Downs 0.82 0.89 0.77
Passing Downs 2.19 1.83 1.13
Line Stats Arkansas Texas A&M Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.01 3.44 2.90
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Arkansas Texas A&M
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.0 0.7
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Texas A&M +0.21
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arkansas +0.21
TO Points Margin Texas A&M +3.2 points
Situational Arkansas Texas A&M
Q1 S&P 0.620 0.464
Q2 S&P 0.673 0.603
Q3 S&P 0.561 0.418
Q4 S&P 0.329 0.782
1st Down S&P 0.456 0.591
2nd Down S&P 0.400 0.701
3rd Down S&P 0.819 0.353
Projected Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 7.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 7

Staying on schedule is going to be incredibly important for Arkansas this year. The Hogs' offense is in complete control on standard downs, when the offense has to account for the pass, but on passing downs against the Aggies, they either made ineffectual runs or ineffective passes. Arkansas is still limited, but the Hogs are maximizing the effect of their one true strength (rushing), which is both impressive and scary. If they ever shore up those weaknesses...

Meanwhile, kudos to A&M for closing out drives defensively when it had the chance and for coming back late with some young personnel. A growing experience for both teams here.