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Study Hall: Oklahoma State 45, Texas Tech 35

Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma State 45, Texas Tech 35

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Oklahoma State Texas Tech Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 73 91
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 97.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.2 27.4 29.8
Possessions 16 16
Scoring Opportunities*
8 7
Points Per Opportunity 5.62 5.00 4.72
Leverage Rate** 74.0% 56.0% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.582 0.499 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oklahoma State Texas Tech
Total 37.5 33.1
Rushing 10.2 6.4
Passing 27.3 26.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Oklahoma State Texas Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 42.5% 40.7% 42.1%
Rushing (close) 42.5% 45.8% 43.4%
Passing (close) 42.4% 38.7% 40.8%
Standard Downs 48.2% 45.1% 47.5%
Passing Downs 26.3% 34.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oklahoma State Texas Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.21 0.87 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.60 0.49 0.72
Passing (close) 1.95 1.04 0.99
Standard Downs 0.88 0.75 0.77
Passing Downs 2.92 1.09 1.13
Line Stats Oklahoma State Texas Tech Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.79 3.21 2.90
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.8% 6.3% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 8.3% 3.3% 7.3%
Turnovers Oklahoma State Texas Tech
Turnovers 2 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 8.6 11.9
Turnover Margin Oklahoma State +1
Exp. TO Margin Oklahoma State +1.83
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Texas Tech +0.83
TO Points Margin Oklahoma State +3.3 points
Situational Oklahoma State Texas Tech
Q1 S&P 0.626 0.485
Q2 S&P 0.655 0.468
Q3 S&P 0.624 0.785
Q4 S&P 0.380 0.346
1st Down S&P 0.482 0.547
2nd Down S&P 0.580 0.691
3rd Down S&P 0.487 0.485
Projected Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 7.7
Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 10

Stats vs. eyeballs: Watching this game, I came away with some pretty shaky conclusions about OSU quarterback Daxx Garman. He throws pretty lobs to the sideline, and that came in extremely handy, but his reads seemed questionable at times, and he made quite a few mistakes.

Meanwhile, because of the sideline lobs, his stat line was pretty incredible: 17-for-31, 370 yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions, two sacks, 10.9 yards per pass attempt (inc. sacks).

Basically, Garman struggled when OSU fell behind schedule, but the Pokes' big pass plays were so big that it didn't matter. Hard to rely on that, though. Actually, it's pretty easy to rely on that not working very often.