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College football projections: Week 5 F/+ picks

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Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Spor

Again, we start with the good. The order of teams in the F/+ rankings is good, and the odds of winning are about where they should be.

Week 4 2014 Season
Teams with 50-60% chance of winning 4-1 (80%) 12-10 (55%)
Teams with 60-70% chance of winning 10-7 (59%) 35-21 (63%)
Teams with 70-80% chance of winning 10-2 (83%) 58-10 (85%)
Teams with 80-90% chance of winning 13-1 (93%) 62-7 (90%)
Teams with 90-100% chance of winning 9-0 (100%) 50-1 (98%)

So the range between best and worst in the F/+ rankings hasn't really formed yet, at least not quite as much as expected. Last year after four weeks, the best team was at +33%, and the worst was at -27%. This year the range is +27% to -26%. Not a significant difference, but a difference. That means that the NEW projections below are still pretty conservative, almost universally picking the underdogs on huge spreads (and perhaps giving heavy favorites a slightly lower chance of winning than they should). That approach worked out well early on last year ... it hasn't this year, and it's going to last a bit longer, I guess.

Week 4 2014 Season
"NEW" Method 23-23 (50%) 107-116-3 (48%)
"OLD" Method 21-25 (46%) 87-91-2 (49%)
When Both Methods Agree 15-17 (47%) 54-60-1 (47%)

Basically just flip a coin. Like I said last week, I love that these numbers have the hierarchy right. But I'm not doing the right things to turn that hierarchy into quality picks. That, or Vegas is doing really well this year.

FBS vs. FBS

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Thu 7:30 PM ESPNU Appalachian State at Georgia Southern -18 Georgia Southern by 15.6 (38.3 - 22.7) 83.8% Appalachian State Georgia Southern by 23.4 Georgia Southern XXX
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN Texas Tech at Oklahoma State -14.5 Oklahoma State by 14.3 (38.1 - 23.8) 82.0% Texas Tech Oklahoma State by 21.2 Oklahoma State XXX
Thu 10:00 PM FS1 UCLA at Arizona State 4 Arizona State by 3.2 (30.5 - 27.3) 62.6% Arizona State Arizona State by 3.0 Arizona State
Fri 8:00 PM ESPN2 Fresno State at New Mexico 5 New Mexico by 2.2 (29.5 - 27.3) 60.5% New Mexico New Mexico by 1.4 New Mexico
Fri 8:00 PM FS1 Middle Tennessee at Old Dominion -4 Middle Tennessee by 2.0 (30.6 - 28.6) 60.0% Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee by 5.4 Middle Tennessee
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Iowa at Purdue 9 Iowa by 10.4 (27.3 - 17.0) 76.0% Iowa Iowa by 19.2 Iowa
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Northwestern at Penn State -10 Penn State by 13.2 (22.9 - 9.7) 80.4% Penn State Penn State by 19.4 Penn State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU South Florida at Wisconsin -34 Wisconsin by 27.6 (35.6 - 8.0) 95.4% South Florida Wisconsin by 42.9 Wisconsin XXX
Sat 12:00 PM CBSSN TCU at SMU 33 TCU by 23.7 (38.8 - 15.2) 92.6% SMU TCU by 41.1 TCU XXX
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Tennessee at Georgia -17 Georgia by 16.8 (35.4 - 18.7) 85.3% Tennessee Georgia by 25.2 Georgia XXX
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News Tulane at Rutgers -12 Rutgers by 14.4 (33.9 - 19.6) 82.1% Rutgers Rutgers by 21.4 Rutgers
Sat 12:00 PM FSN Affiliats UTEP at Kansas State -27 Kansas State by 21.2 (37.9 - 16.8) 90.3% UTEP Kansas State by 32.4 Kansas State XXX
Sat 12:00 PM SECN Vanderbilt at Kentucky -17 Kentucky by 9.2 (28.3 - 19.1) 74.1% Vanderbilt Kentucky by 12.9 Vanderbilt
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Wyoming at Michigan State -28 Michigan State by 29.3 (37.7 - 8.5) 96.4% Michigan State Michigan State by 45.7 Michigan State
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Colorado State at Boston College -9.5 Boston College by 9.0 (33.9 - 25.0) 73.6% Colorado State Boston College by 12.5 Boston College XXX
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Western Michigan at Virginia Tech -21 Virginia Tech by 18.2 (33.5 - 15.4) 87.0% Western Michigan Virginia Tech by 27.5 Virginia Tech XXX
Sat 1:30 PM ESPN3 Akron at Pittsburgh -20.5 Pittsburgh by 22.8 (42.1 - 19.4) 91.8% Pittsburgh Pittsburgh by 35.1 Pittsburgh
Sat 1:30 PM BTN Maryland at Indiana -4 Indiana by 6.1 (25.9 - 19.9) 68.4% Indiana Indiana by 7.7 Indiana
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Bowling Green at Massachusetts 4.5 Bowling Green by 6.9 (36.5 - 29.6) 69.9% Bowling Green Bowling Green by 13.6 Bowling Green
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Arkansas vs. Texas A&M -10 Texas A&M by 13.9 (40.4 - 26.5) 81.4% Texas A&M Texas A&M by 17.0 Texas A&M
Sat 3:30 PM CSCA Florida International at UAB -17 UAB by 8.5 (27.6 - 19.0) 72.9% Florida International UAB by 11.7 Florida International
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Florida State at NC State 19 Florida State by 12.5 (37.6 - 25.2) 79.3% NC State Florida State by 22.7 Florida State XXX
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Kent State at Virginia -27.5 Virginia by 21.4 (31.6 - 10.3) 90.5% Kent State Virginia by 32.8 Virginia XXX
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Miami-OH at Buffalo -6 Buffalo by 6.4 (29.5 - 23.2) 68.9% Buffalo Buffalo by 8.2 Buffalo
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Minnesota at Michigan -12 Michigan by 11.9 (25.7 - 13.8) 78.5% Minnesota Michigan by 17.3 Michigan XXX
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Wake Forest at Louisville -22 Louisville by 26.8 (35.7 - 8.9) 95.0% Louisville Louisville by 41.7 Louisville
Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN Western Kentucky at Navy -7 Navy by 10.1 (37.1 - 27.0) 75.6% Navy Navy by 14.4 Navy
Sat 4:00 PM Pac-12 Colorado at California -14 California by 11.8 (33.3 - 21.6) 78.3% Colorado California by 17.1 California XXX
Sat 4:00 PM SECN Louisiana Tech at Auburn -33 Auburn by 23.6 (35.2 - 11.7) 92.5% Louisiana Tech Auburn by 36.3 Auburn XXX
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN News Temple at Connecticut 6 Connecticut by 0.9 (19.5 - 18.7) 57.6% Connecticut Temple by 0.8 Connecticut
Sat 4:10 PM FS1 Texas at Kansas 13 Texas by 6.8 (24.2 - 17.4) 69.8% Kansas Texas by 13.4 Texas XXX
Sat 4:15 PM Fox Stanford at Washington 8 Stanford by 10.4 (30.0 - 19.7) 76.0% Stanford Stanford by 19.2 Stanford
Sat 5:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama at Idaho 4.5 South Alabama by 2.0 (27.7 - 25.7) 60.1% Idaho South Alabama by 5.5 South Alabama XXX
Sat 5:00 PM $CSLive UTSA at Florida Atlantic 6 UTSA by 6.8 (24.2 - 17.4) 69.8% UTSA UTSA by 13.4 UTSA
Sat 6:00 PM BTN Cincinnati at Ohio State -17 Ohio State by 14.7 (34.6 - 19.9) 82.6% Cincinnati Ohio State by 21.9 Ohio State XXX
Sat 7:00 PM CBSSN Boise State at Air Force 13 Boise State by 12.5 (33.3 - 20.8) 79.4% Air Force Boise State by 22.7 Boise State XXX
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Central Michigan at Toledo -15 Toledo by 11.7 (34.7 - 23.0) 78.1% Central Michigan Toledo by 16.9 Toledo XXX
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN Missouri at South Carolina -5.5 South Carolina by 3.8 (32.1 - 28.4) 63.8% Missouri South Carolina by 3.9 Missouri
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU North Carolina at Clemson -14.5 Clemson by 14.1 (30.9 - 16.9) 81.7% North Carolina Clemson by 20.8 Clemson XXX
Sat 7:00 PM FCSA Rice at Southern Miss 8 Rice by 4.1 (31.3 - 27.2) 64.5% Southern Miss Rice by 8.9 Rice XXX
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Troy at UL-Monroe -14 UL-Monroe by 10.0 (28.7 - 18.8) 75.3% Troy UL-Monroe by 14.1 UL-Monroe XXX
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN2 Duke at Miami-FL -7 Miami-FL by 6.5 (34.6 - 28.2) 69.1% Duke Miami-FL by 8.4 Miami-FL XXX
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Memphis at Ole Miss -21 Ole Miss by 21.5 (37.7 - 16.3) 90.6% Ole Miss Ole Miss by 32.9 Ole Miss
Sat 7:30 PM SECN New Mexico State at LSU -43 LSU by 35.6 (45.2 - 9.7) 98.4% New Mexico State LSU by 56.0 LSU XXX
Sat 8:00 PM Fox Baylor at Iowa State 21.5 Baylor by 15.6 (40.1 - 24.6) 83.8% Iowa State Baylor by 27.8 Baylor XXX
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Notre Dame vs. Syracuse 10 Notre Dame by 9.5 (29.9 - 20.5) 74.5% Syracuse Notre Dame by 21.2 Notre Dame XXX
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN News Texas State at Tulsa -3 Tulsa by 3.5 (35.1 - 31.6) 63.3% Tulsa Tulsa by 3.6 Tulsa
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN3 UNLV at San Diego State -18 San Diego State by 12.9 (35.9 - 23.0) 79.9% UNLV San Diego State by 18.9 San Diego State XXX
Sat 8:00 PM Pac-12 Washington State at Utah -13 Utah by 13.6 (34.3 - 20.7) 81.0% Utah Utah by 20.0 Utah
Sat 9:00 PM BTN Illinois at Nebraska -21.5 Nebraska by 15.9 (32.1 - 16.3) 84.1% Illinois Nebraska by 23.7 Nebraska XXX
Sat 10:30 PM CBSSN Nevada at San Jose State 5 Nevada by 2.7 (30.3 - 27.6) 61.7% San Jose State Nevada by 6.7 Nevada XXX
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN Oregon State at USC -9 USC by 8.0 (35.1 - 27.1) 71.9% Oregon State USC by 10.9 USC XXX

FBS vs. FCS

Day Time (ET) TV Game Prediction Chance of winning
Sat 1:00 PM FCSA Army at Yale Army by 3.8 (31.9 - 28.2) 63.8%
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Illinois at Ohio Eastern Illinois by 2.2 (25.4 - 23.3) 60.4%