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Study Hall: Nebraska 41, Miami 31

Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

Nebraska 41, Miami 31

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Basics Miami Nebraska Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 65 67
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 89.4%
Avg Starting FP 28.7 32.4 29.9
Possessions 10 10
Scoring Opportunities*
6 7
Points Per Opportunity 5.17 4.86 4.74
Leverage Rate** 63.1% 89.6% 68.5%
Close S&P*** 0.576 0.582 0.494
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Miami Nebraska
Total 28.8 29.9
Rushing 5.4 20.8
Passing 23.4 9.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Miami Nebraska Nat'l Avg
All (close) 49.0% 50.8% 38.1%
Rushing (close) 50.0% 50.0% 37.7%
Passing (close) 48.5% 53.9% 38.5%
Standard Downs 48.8% 48.3% 42.6%
Passing Downs 50.0% 71.4% 28.4%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Miami Nebraska Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.92 0.88 0.95
Rushing (close) 0.60 0.77 0.84
Passing (close) 1.10 1.30 1.06
Standard Downs 0.79 0.84 0.87
Passing Downs 1.46 1.11 1.22
Line Stats Miami Nebraska Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.33 4.24 2.89
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 3.9% 0.0% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.2%
Turnovers Miami Nebraska
Turnovers 3 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 19.1 6.4
Turnover Margin Nebraska +1
Exp. TO Margin +0
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Nebraska +1.0
TO Points Margin Nebraska +12.7 points
Situational Miami Nebraska
Q1 S&P 0.590 0.448
Q2 S&P 0.410 0.512
Q3 S&P 0.554 0.560
Q4 S&P 0.316 0.444
1st Down S&P 0.458 0.415
2nd Down S&P 0.564 0.581
3rd Down S&P 0.345 0.571
Projected Scoring Margin: Nebraska by 13.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Nebraska by 10

Ameer Abdullah was amazing, but Nebraska needed turnovers to pull/stay ahead in this one. Miami averaged a healthy 5.2 yards per scoring opportunity but still managed to turn the ball over three times in Nebraska territory. This was almost a Michigan-level "look good but crumble at just the right times" performance from Miami ... but at least the Hurricanes can blame some of that on having a freshman quarterback.