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Study Hall: Oklahoma 45, West Virginia 33

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Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma 45, West Virginia 33

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Oklahoma West Virginia Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 76 81
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 94.9%
Avg Starting FP 28.5 29.3 29.9
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
7 6
Points Per Opportunity 5.43 5.67 4.74
Leverage Rate** 75.0% 63.0% 68.5%
Close S&P*** 0.542 0.491 0.494
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oklahoma West Virginia
Total 34.0 32.3
Rushing 22.8 11.2
Passing 11.2 21.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Oklahoma West Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 39.5% 35.6% 38.1%
Rushing (close) 41.3% 28.1% 37.7%
Passing (close) 36.7% 41.5% 38.5%
Standard Downs 45.6% 39.2% 42.6%
Passing Downs 21.1% 27.3% 28.4%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oklahoma West Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.13 1.03 0.95
Rushing (close) 1.20 0.80 0.84
Passing (close) 1.02 1.15 1.06
Standard Downs 1.10 0.94 0.87
Passing Downs 1.37 1.31 1.22
Line Stats Oklahoma West Virginia Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.56 3.23 2.89
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 12.0% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.2%
Turnovers Oklahoma West Virginia
Turnovers 1 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 2.6 8.0
Turnover Margin Oklahoma +2
Exp. TO Margin Oklahoma +0.66
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Oklahoma +1.34
TO Points Margin Oklahoma +5.4 points
Situational Oklahoma West Virginia
Q1 S&P 0.215 0.436
Q2 S&P 0.536 0.370
Q3 S&P 0.470 0.240
Q4 S&P 0.435 0.553
1st Down S&P 0.508 0.385
2nd Down S&P 0.307 0.415
3rd Down S&P 0.323 0.464
Projected Scoring Margin: Oklahoma by 7.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma by 12

A closer projection than I expected, honestly, until I remembered OU's kick return touchdown. Add that, and you basically get the final margin. OU needed turnovers to keep its distance in the second half, but ... damn, that running game.