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Study Hall: Mississippi State 34, LSU 29

Wesley Hitt

Mississippi State 34, LSU 29

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics LSU Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 72 73
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 80.7%
Avg Starting FP 27.1 26.4 29.9
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
5 7
Points Per Opportunity 4.80 4.86 4.74
Leverage Rate** 48.6% 50.7% 68.5%
Close S&P*** 0.399 0.585 0.494
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) LSU Mississippi State
Total 25.3 35.9
Rushing 6.0 18.8
Passing 19.3 17.1
Success Rate (what's this?) LSU Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 26.8% 41.0% 38.1%
Rushing (close) 24.1% 37.8% 37.7%
Passing (close) 29.6% 45.8% 38.5%
Standard Downs 22.9% 48.7% 42.6%
Passing Downs 33.3% 29.2% 28.4%
IsoPPP (what's this?) LSU Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.92 1.29 0.95
Rushing (close) 0.52 1.08 0.84
Passing (close) 1.28 1.55 1.06
Standard Downs 0.80 1.17 0.87
Passing Downs 1.07 1.59 1.22
Line Stats LSU Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.27 2.50 2.89
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 8.3% 0.0% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 6.7% 20.0% 7.2%
Turnovers LSU Mississippi State
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 2.3 11.6
Turnover Margin LSU +1
Exp. TO Margin LSU +0.51
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) LSU +0.49
TO Points Margin LSU +9.3 points
Situational LSU Mississippi State
Q1 S&P 0.155 0.591
Q2 S&P 0.353 0.312
Q3 S&P 0.081 0.477
Q4 S&P 0.583 0.282
1st Down S&P 0.333 0.495
2nd Down S&P 0.442 0.307
3rd Down S&P 0.134 0.491
Projected Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 1.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 5

Man oh man, does Dak Prescott still scare the hell out of me. About four times per game, he's going to do something wild, and I assume at some point this season that's going to backfire. It didn't on Saturday, though -- out of three to four crazy plays, only one was costly (a fumble returned for a TD), and the others helped to win MSU the game. And since I picked him apart in this year's Mississippi State preview for not actually doing any damage whatsoever against a good defense, I should noted that he destroyed LSU's defense in Baton Rouge.