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Mississippi State 34, LSU 29
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | LSU | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 72 | 73 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 80.7% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 27.1 | 26.4 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 15 | 15 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 7 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.80 | 4.86 | 4.74 |
| Leverage Rate** | 48.6% | 50.7% | 68.5% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.399 | 0.585 | 0.494 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | LSU | Mississippi State | |
| Total | 25.3 | 35.9 | |
| Rushing | 6.0 | 18.8 | |
| Passing | 19.3 | 17.1 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | LSU | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 26.8% | 41.0% | 38.1% |
| Rushing (close) | 24.1% | 37.8% | 37.7% |
| Passing (close) | 29.6% | 45.8% | 38.5% |
| Standard Downs | 22.9% | 48.7% | 42.6% |
| Passing Downs | 33.3% | 29.2% | 28.4% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | LSU | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.92 | 1.29 | 0.95 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.52 | 1.08 | 0.84 |
| Passing (close) | 1.28 | 1.55 | 1.06 |
| Standard Downs | 0.80 | 1.17 | 0.87 |
| Passing Downs | 1.07 | 1.59 | 1.22 |
| Line Stats | LSU | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.27 | 2.50 | 2.89 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 8.3% | 0.0% | 4.5% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 6.7% | 20.0% | 7.2% |
| Turnovers | LSU | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 2.3 | 11.6 |
| Turnover Margin | LSU +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | LSU +0.51 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | LSU +0.49 | |
| TO Points Margin | LSU +9.3 points | |
| Situational | LSU | Mississippi State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.155 | 0.591 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.353 | 0.312 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.081 | 0.477 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.583 | 0.282 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.333 | 0.495 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.442 | 0.307 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.134 | 0.491 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 1.3 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 5 | ||
Man oh man, does Dak Prescott still scare the hell out of me. About four times per game, he's going to do something wild, and I assume at some point this season that's going to backfire. It didn't on Saturday, though -- out of three to four crazy plays, only one was costly (a fumble returned for a TD), and the others helped to win MSU the game. And since I picked him apart in this year's Mississippi State preview for not actually doing any damage whatsoever against a good defense, I should noted that he destroyed LSU's defense in Baton Rouge.