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Study Hall: Utah 26, Michigan 10

Gregory Shamus

Utah 26, Michigan 10

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Michigan Utah Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 75 64
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 25.9 35.9 29.9
Possessions 12 13
Scoring Opportunities*
3 6
Points Per Opportunity 1.00 3.17 4.74
Leverage Rate** 56.0% 64.1% 68.5%
Close S&P*** 0.360 0.399 0.494
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Michigan Utah
Total 13.2 15.9
Rushing 6.1 5.7
Passing 7.2 10.2
Success Rate (what's this?) Michigan Utah Nat'l Avg
All (close) 30.7% 25.0% 38.1%
Rushing (close) 40.6% 20.6% 37.7%
Passing (close) 23.3% 30.0% 38.5%
Standard Downs 40.5% 24.4% 42.6%
Passing Downs 18.2% 26.1% 28.4%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Michigan Utah Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.58 1.00 0.95
Rushing (close) 0.47 0.82 0.84
Passing (close) 0.72 1.13 1.06
Standard Downs 0.38 0.43 0.87
Passing Downs 1.14 1.93 1.22
Line Stats Michigan Utah Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.93 2.07 2.89
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 15.8% 14.3% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 4.2% 6.3% 7.2%
Turnovers Michigan Utah
Turnovers 4 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 16.5 6.6
Turnover Margin Utah +3
Exp. TO Margin Utah +2.2
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Utah +0.8
TO Points Margin Utah +9.9 points
Situational Michigan Utah
Q1 S&P 0.288 0.207
Q2 S&P 0.262 0.184
Q3 S&P 0.346 0.520
Q4 S&P 0.222 0.179
1st Down S&P 0.260 0.220
2nd Down S&P 0.167 0.239
3rd Down S&P 0.410 0.306
Projected Scoring Margin: Utah by 12.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Utah by 16

Four turnovers and 1.0 points per scoring opportunity. That's how you take something decent and make it awful. There will never be an Adjusted Belief Index (ABI), but let's just say that if there were such a thing, Michigan would be 128th out of 128. Watching them is watching a team that knows a mistake is about to happen.