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Study Hall: Alabama 42, Florida 21

Kevin C. Cox

Alabama 42, Florida 21

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Alabama Florida Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 87 55
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 83.8%
Avg Starting FP 25.0 35.3 29.9
Possessions 15 14
Scoring Opportunities*
9 4
Points Per Opportunity 4.67 3.50 4.74
Leverage Rate** 64.4% 47.3% 68.5%
Close S&P*** 0.604 0.389 0.494
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Alabama Florida
Total 43.2 11.6
Rushing 13.5 6.2
Passing 29.7 5.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Alabama Florida Nat'l Avg
All (close) 46.1% 20.9% 38.1%
Rushing (close) 47.5% 21.7% 37.7%
Passing (close) 44.4% 20.0% 38.5%
Standard Downs 42.9% 19.2% 42.6%
Passing Downs 55.0% 23.5% 28.4%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Alabama Florida Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.18 1.11 0.95
Rushing (close) 0.61 1.08 0.84
Passing (close) 1.86 1.15 1.06
Standard Downs 1.12 0.56 0.87
Passing Downs 1.31 1.80 1.22
Line Stats Alabama Florida Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.42 2.35 2.89
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.8% 0.0% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.2%
Turnovers Alabama Florida
Turnovers 4 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 24.0 9.0
Turnover Margin Florida +1
Exp. TO Margin Florida +0.36
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Florida +0.64
TO Points Margin Florida +14.9 points
Situational Alabama Florida
Q1 S&P 0.581 0.242
Q2 S&P 0.426 0.140
Q3 S&P 0.458 0.386
Q4 S&P 0.335 0.234
1st Down S&P 0.371 0.210
2nd Down S&P 0.506 0.297
3rd Down S&P 0.568 0.191
Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 16.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 21

So yeah, Alabama's offense was better in the first half than the second, and Florida's offense was about the same in both halves. Is there such a thing as backwards fatigue?