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Study Hall: Arizona 49, California 45

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Christian Petersen

Arizona 49, California 45

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arizona California Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 106 72
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 91.0%
Avg Starting FP 34.7 25.7 29.9
Possessions 18 17
Scoring Opportunities*
11 8
Points Per Opportunity 4.64 5.62 4.74
Leverage Rate** 56.6% 70.8% 68.5%
Close S&P*** 0.516 0.604 0.494
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona California
Total 41.0 39.3
Rushing 6.4 16.3
Passing 34.6 23.0
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona California Nat'l Avg
All (close) 41.9% 40.6% 38.1%
Rushing (close) 46.2% 34.2% 37.7%
Passing (close) 40.3% 48.4% 38.5%
Standard Downs 50.0% 45.1% 42.6%
Passing Downs 27.3% 27.8% 28.4%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona California Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.90 1.40 0.95
Rushing (close) 0.50 1.24 0.84
Passing (close) 1.08 1.53 1.06
Standard Downs 0.79 1.25 0.87
Passing Downs 1.27 2.09 1.22
Line Stats Arizona California Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.21 2.69 2.89
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 5.4% 5.3% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 3.3% 16.7% 7.2%
Turnovers Arizona California
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 6.6 11.5
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Arizona +1.02
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) California +1.02
TO Points Margin Arizona +4.9 points
Situational Arizona California
Q1 S&P 0.091 0.467
Q2 S&P 0.382 0.454
Q3 S&P 0.417 0.166
Q4 S&P 0.644 0.576
1st Down S&P 0.380 0.454
2nd Down S&P 0.489 0.417
3rd Down S&P 0.279 0.371
Projected Scoring Margin: Arizona by 6.7
Actual Scoring Margin: Arizona by 4

I always like taking absurd, ridiculous, obnoxiously crazy games and turning them into a set of numbers. This thing was all sorts of even on paper, though look at the quarter-to-quarter offensive improvement for Arizona...

But just so it doesn't get too sterile....