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Study Hall: Florida State 23, Clemson 17

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John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Florida State 23, Clemson 17

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Clemson Florida State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 73 66
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.9 28.7 29.9
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
8 5
Points Per Opportunity 2.12 4.80 4.74
Leverage Rate** 68.5% 59.1% 68.5%
Close S&P*** 0.460 0.442 0.494
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Clemson Florida State
Total 23.3 19.6
Rushing 6.5 5.7
Passing 16.8 13.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Clemson Florida State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 34.3% 31.8% 38.1%
Rushing (close) 25.6% 27.3% 37.7%
Passing (close) 44.1% 34.1% 38.5%
Standard Downs 30.0% 41.0% 42.6%
Passing Downs 43.5% 18.5% 28.4%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Clemson Florida State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.93 0.94 0.95
Rushing (close) 0.65 0.95 0.84
Passing (close) 1.12 0.93 1.06
Standard Downs 0.79 0.66 0.87
Passing Downs 1.14 1.82 1.22
Line Stats Clemson Florida State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.93 1.90 2.89
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 13.6% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 5.9% 9.1% 7.2%
Turnovers Clemson Florida State
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.0 7.4
Turnover Margin Clemson +1
Exp. TO Margin Clemson +0.59
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Clemson +0.41
TO Points Margin Clemson +2.4 points
Situational Clemson Florida State
Q1 S&P 0.287 0.207
Q2 S&P 0.323 0.061
Q3 S&P 0.413 0.525
Q4 S&P 0.426 0.329
1st Down S&P 0.320 0.348
2nd Down S&P 0.404 0.318
3rd Down S&P 0.295 0.241
Projected Scoring Margin: Clemson by 6.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 6

So Clemson should have won by six but lost by six ... I wonder why that could have been ... [exaggeratedly points directly at Points Per Opportunity] ... nope ... no idea whatsoever.

I'll say this for FSU: the 'Noles slammed the door like a champion. They should have lost ... they should have been down double digits in the fourth quarter ... but they weren't. And while it took them more than 60 minutes to find an opportunity to put the game away, when they got it, they did it. Eddie Goldman was amazing, Rashad Greene was Rashad Greene, and that was somehow enough.