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Study Hall: Auburn 20, Kansas State 14

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I'm testing out a new format here, attempting to incorporate some of the Five Factors concepts we discussed in the offseason (and make these posts a little bit more mobile-friendly. Feedback is welcome. Actually, feedback is requested.

Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn 20, Kansas State 14

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Auburn Kansas State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 76 70
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.2 35.4 29.9
Possessions 11 11
Scoring Opportunities*
5 7
Points Per Opportunity 4.00 2.00 4.74
Leverage Rate** 61.8% 68.6% 68.5%
Close S&P*** 0.431 0.450 0.494
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Auburn Kansas State
Total 19.8 19.9
Rushing 5.0 6.8
Passing 14.8 13.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Auburn Kansas State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 35.5% 37.1% 38.1%
Rushing (close) 24.4% 29.6% 37.7%
Passing (close) 51.6% 41.9% 38.5%
Standard Downs 36.2% 31.3% 42.6%
Passing Downs 34.5% 50.0% 28.4%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Auburn Kansas State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.73 0.77 0.95
Rushing (close) 0.45 0.85 0.84
Passing (close) 0.92 0.73 1.06
Standard Downs 0.73 0.80 0.87
Passing Downs 0.73 0.72 1.22
Line Stats Auburn Kansas State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.19 1.73 2.89
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 9.1% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 4.8% 7.2%
Turnovers Auburn Kansas State
Turnovers 1 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 3.9 14.0
Turnover Margin Auburn +2
Exp. TO Margin Auburn +0.07
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Auburn +1.93
TO Points Margin Auburn +10.1 points
Situational Auburn Kansas State
Q1 S&P 0.210 0.283
Q2 S&P 0.319 0.353
Q3 S&P 0.368 0.330
Q4 S&P 0.400 0.466
1st Down S&P 0.227 0.252
2nd Down S&P 0.354 0.375
3rd Down S&P 0.505 0.534
Projected Scoring Margin: Auburn +9.9
Actual Scoring Margin: Auburn +6

Basically, this tells us about what we should have expected: turnovers and blown scoring opportunities ruined the evening for Kansas State. There was a little bit of luck/randomness involved -- based on passes defensed and fumbles, one would have assumed closer to an even turnover margin than Auburn +2; and then there's the whole "missed a 22-yard field goal" thing -- but as I wrote for SB Nation last week, Auburn also had fewer execution errors, and that isn't luck.