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Auburn 20, Kansas State 14
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
Basics | Auburn | Kansas State | Nat'l Avg |
---|---|---|---|
Total Plays | 76 | 70 | |
Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
Avg Starting FP | 30.2 | 35.4 | 29.9 |
Possessions | 11 | 11 | |
Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 7 | |
Points Per Opportunity | 4.00 | 2.00 | 4.74 |
Leverage Rate** | 61.8% | 68.6% | 68.5% |
Close S&P*** | 0.431 | 0.450 | 0.494 |
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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EqPts (what's this?) | Auburn | Kansas State | |
Total | 19.8 | 19.9 | |
Rushing | 5.0 | 6.8 | |
Passing | 14.8 | 13.1 | |
Success Rate (what's this?) | Auburn | Kansas State | Nat'l Avg |
All (close) | 35.5% | 37.1% | 38.1% |
Rushing (close) | 24.4% | 29.6% | 37.7% |
Passing (close) | 51.6% | 41.9% | 38.5% |
Standard Downs | 36.2% | 31.3% | 42.6% |
Passing Downs | 34.5% | 50.0% | 28.4% |
IsoPPP (what's this?) | Auburn | Kansas State | Nat'l Avg |
All (close) | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.95 |
Rushing (close) | 0.45 | 0.85 | 0.84 |
Passing (close) | 0.92 | 0.73 | 1.06 |
Standard Downs | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.87 |
Passing Downs | 0.73 | 0.72 | 1.22 |
Line Stats | Auburn | Kansas State | Nat'l Avg |
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.19 | 1.73 | 2.89 |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 4.8% | 7.2% |
Turnovers | Auburn | Kansas State |
---|---|---|
Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
Turnover Points (what's this?) | 3.9 | 14.0 |
Turnover Margin | Auburn +2 | |
Exp. TO Margin | Auburn +0.07 | |
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Auburn +1.93 | |
TO Points Margin | Auburn +10.1 points | |
Situational | Auburn | Kansas State |
Q1 S&P | 0.210 | 0.283 |
Q2 S&P | 0.319 | 0.353 |
Q3 S&P | 0.368 | 0.330 |
Q4 S&P | 0.400 | 0.466 |
1st Down S&P | 0.227 | 0.252 |
2nd Down S&P | 0.354 | 0.375 |
3rd Down S&P | 0.505 | 0.534 |
Projected Scoring Margin: Auburn +9.9 | ||
Actual Scoring Margin: Auburn +6 |
Basically, this tells us about what we should have expected: turnovers and blown scoring opportunities ruined the evening for Kansas State. There was a little bit of luck/randomness involved -- based on passes defensed and fumbles, one would have assumed closer to an even turnover margin than Auburn +2; and then there's the whole "missed a 22-yard field goal" thing -- but as I wrote for SB Nation last week, Auburn also had fewer execution errors, and that isn't luck.
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