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Is there a way to estimate the final win totals a team will achieve based solely on its current win-loss record?
When speaking about the entire FBS, we can state with a high degree of confidence that a team that starts the season 0-1 has a 93% probability of finishing with no more than 9 wins. In fact, one of the most interesting findings when I did this analysis was the importance of starting a season with a win.
The tables below consider almost all teams' season since 2000. I am missing some data for a few teams' season, so in cases which I did not have full season data I did not use that team's season in the calculations.
Reading down you see the record of a team after the first game of the season. Reading across you see the total season wins for a team. Even though teams may play 12, 13, or 14 game seasons based on conference championship games, it provides a good comparison of the importance of opening a season with a win.
If a random team starts out 1-0 it has an 29% chance of finishing season with at 10 wins. Starting the season 0-1 drops that probability to only 7%.
Teams that have gone 4-0 through the first four weeks of the season have a 59% chance of winning at least 10 games.
| Season Wins > | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 0% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 14% | 17% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | |
| 2-0 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | ||
| 3-0 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 1% | |||
| 4-0 | 0% | 2% | 1% | 10% | 15% | 13% | 16% | 21% | 15% | 6% | 2% | ||||
| 5-0 | 1% | 0% | 6% | 11% | 11% | 17% | 23% | 20% | 8% | 3% | |||||
| 6-0 | 0% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 15% | 28% | 26% | 12% | 4% | ||||||
| 7-0 | 0% | 2% | 7% | 15% | 27% | 31% | 13% | 5% | |||||||
| 8-0 | 0% | 4% | 9% | 27% | 37% | 17% | 6% | ||||||||
| 9-0 | 2% | 2% | 26% | 41% | 21% | 9% | |||||||||
| 10-0 | 0% | 17% | 50% | 23% | 10% | ||||||||||
| 11-0 | 10% | 51% | 27% | 12% | |||||||||||
| 12-0 | 54% | 31% | 14% | ||||||||||||
| 13-0 | 64% | 36% | |||||||||||||
| 14-0 | 100% | ||||||||||||||
| Grand Total | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 16% | 14% | 7% | 3% | |
| Season Wins > | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 0-1 | 2% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 8% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | |
| 1-1 | 2% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 16% | 16% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 0% | ||
| 2-1 | 1% | 2% | 7% | 11% | 11% | 18% | 18% | 15% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 0% | |||
| 3-1 | 1% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 18% | 19% | 19% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | ||||
| 4-1 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 20% | 20% | 17% | 14% | 4% | 1% | |||||
| 5-1 | 0% | 3% | 14% | 18% | 21% | 20% | 17% | 6% | 2% | ||||||
| 6-1 | 1% | 7% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 25% | 9% | 3% | |||||||
| 7-1 | 1% | 11% | 13% | 28% | 30% | 13% | 4% | ||||||||
| 8-1 | 2% | 12% | 28% | 34% | 18% | 6% | |||||||||
| 9-1 | 4% | 23% | 44% | 21% | 8% | ||||||||||
| 10-1 | 13% | 48% | 28% | 11% | |||||||||||
| 11-1 | 47% | 38% | 15% | ||||||||||||
| 12-1 | 77% | 23% | |||||||||||||
| 13-1 | 100% | ||||||||||||||
| Grand Total | 0% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 6% | 3% |
You can view the probabilities for records up through n-10 records here.
When only seasons from teams from the Power 5 conferences are considered, the probabilties are very similar. Teams beginning the season with a win have a 32% probability of achieving at least 10 wins that season. Power 5 teams that lose their season opener have just a 9% of at least 10 wins.
Power 5 teams that begin the season 4-0 have a 60% probability of at least 10 wins.
| Season Wins > | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 0% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 16% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | |
| 2-0 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 12% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | ||
| 3-0 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 1% | |||
| 4-0 | 0% | 2% | 1% | 11% | 14% | 12% | 15% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | ||||
| 5-0 | 1% | 0% | 7% | 10% | 10% | 17% | 26% | 18% | 8% | 3% | |||||
| 6-0 | 0% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 14% | 32% | 23% | 12% | 4% | ||||||
| 7-0 | 0% | 3% | 6% | 16% | 30% | 25% | 14% | 5% | |||||||
| 8-0 | 0% | 3% | 10% | 31% | 31% | 18% | 7% | ||||||||
| 9-0 | 2% | 2% | 31% | 33% | 22% | 9% | |||||||||
| 10-0 | 0% | 20% | 43% | 26% | 11% | ||||||||||
| 11-0 | 10% | 45% | 31% | 14% | |||||||||||
| 12-0 | 48% | 36% | 16% | ||||||||||||
| 13-0 | 67% | 33% | |||||||||||||
| 14-0 | 100% | ||||||||||||||
| Grand Total | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 19% | 13% | 7% | 3% | |
| Season Wins > | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 0-1 | 1% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | |
| 1-1 | 2% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 18% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 0% | ||
| 2-1 | 2% | 2% | 7% | 11% | 11% | 19% | 18% | 15% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 0% | |||
| 3-1 | 1% | 3% | 8% | 9% | 20% | 18% | 18% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 1% | ||||
| 4-1 | 0% | 3% | 7% | 14% | 20% | 22% | 17% | 13% | 3% | 1% | |||||
| 5-1 | 0% | 3% | 15% | 16% | 22% | 20% | 18% | 5% | 1% | ||||||
| 6-1 | 1% | 8% | 13% | 18% | 22% | 27% | 9% | 3% | |||||||
| 7-1 | 2% | 10% | 13% | 28% | 33% | 12% | 3% | ||||||||
| 8-1 | 1% | 9% | 27% | 40% | 18% | 5% | |||||||||
| 9-1 | 3% | 21% | 49% | 20% | 7% | ||||||||||
| 10-1 | 10% | 55% | 27% | 8% | |||||||||||
| 11-1 | 53% | 35% | 12% | ||||||||||||
| 12-1 | 77% | 23% | |||||||||||||
| 13-1 | 100% | ||||||||||||||
| Grand Total | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 7% | 2% |
Finally, for teams that are ranked at any point in the season, the probability of winning at least 10 games for teams that begin 1-0 climbs to 54% and no team that has been ranked has finished with fewer than 4 wins.
A season opening win makes a 10-win season 3 times more likely.Ranked teams that start the season 0-1 have the same 9% probability of winning at least 10 games.
Ranked teams that start the season 4-0 have a 66% probability of winning at least 10 games.
| Season Wins > | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 1% | 4% | 3% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 1% | ||||
| 2-0 | 0% | 4% | 3% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 16% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 2% | ||||
| 3-0 | 0% | 3% | 2% | 9% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 2% | ||||
| 4-0 | 0% | 2% | 1% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 27% | 16% | 8% | 2% | ||||
| 5-0 | 1% | 0% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 16% | 27% | 18% | 9% | 3% | |||||
| 6-0 | 0% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 14% | 32% | 23% | 12% | 4% | ||||||
| 7-0 | 0% | 3% | 6% | 16% | 30% | 25% | 14% | 5% | |||||||
| 8-0 | 0% | 3% | 10% | 31% | 31% | 18% | 7% | ||||||||
| 9-0 | 2% | 2% | 31% | 33% | 22% | 9% | |||||||||
| 10-0 | 0% | 20% | 43% | 26% | 11% | ||||||||||
| 11-0 | 10% | 45% | 31% | 14% | |||||||||||
| 12-0 | 48% | 36% | 16% | ||||||||||||
| 13-0 | 67% | 33% | |||||||||||||
| 14-0 | 100% | ||||||||||||||
| Grand Total | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 13% | 24% | 18% | 10% | 4% | |
| Season Wins > | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 0-1 | 1% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | |
| 1-1 | 1% | 4% | 4% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 16% | 20% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 0% | ||
| 2-1 | 2% | 2% | 7% | 11% | 9% | 18% | 18% | 16% | 8% | 7% | 1% | 0% | |||
| 3-1 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 4% | 1% | ||||
| 4-1 | 1% | 3% | 4% | 11% | 20% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 3% | 1% | |||||
| 5-1 | 1% | 3% | 11% | 15% | 18% | 24% | 22% | 5% | 1% | ||||||
| 6-1 | 1% | 7% | 14% | 16% | 22% | 29% | 11% | 2% | |||||||
| 7-1 | 2% | 9% | 11% | 29% | 34% | 13% | 3% | ||||||||
| 8-1 | 1% | 9% | 27% | 40% | 18% | 5% | |||||||||
| 9-1 | 3% | 21% | 49% | 20% | 7% | ||||||||||
| 10-1 | 10% | 55% | 27% | 8% | |||||||||||
| 11-1 | 53% | 35% | 12% | ||||||||||||
| 12-1 | 77% | 23% | |||||||||||||
| 13-1 | 100% | ||||||||||||||
| Grand Total | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 21% | 9% | 3% |
You can download the raw data for this analysis here. Please note that conference data is based on 2014 alignments.
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