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College football projections: Week 4 F/+ picks

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Jamie Squire

The good:

Week 3 2014 Season
50-60% chance of winning 2-4 (33%) 8-9 (47%)
60-70% chance of winning 5-4 (56%) 25-14 (64%)
70-80% chance of winning 14-2 (88%) 48-8 (86%)
80-90% chance of winning 8-2 (80%) 49-6 (89%)
90-100% chance of winning 10-0 (100%) 41-1 (98%)

I was concerned about the high-probability picks not living up to percentages early in the season, while the rankings were still coagulating. I shouldn't have worried. The F/+ rankings have a very good read on the college football hierarchy.

The ... less good:

Week 3 2014 Season
"NEW" Method 20-29-2 (41%) 84-93-3 (48%)
"OLD" Method 25-24-2 (51%) 66-66-2 (50%)
When Both Methods Agree 10-16-1 (39%) 39-43-1 (48%)

Vegas also has a good read on the hierarchy, and I still haven't figured out the best way to turn ratings into point spreads. Not having a huge first week is going to continue backfiring this season -- typically I bolts out of the gates around 60-65%, then slowly trickle toward .500. Week 1 stunk this year, so here we are. Good read for hierarchy, bad read for points.

FBS vs. FBS

Regardless of how terrible they may be ... here are your picks.

Day Time (ET) TV Type Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN FBS Auburn at Kansas State 8.5 Auburn by 3.2 (36.1 - 33.0) 61.9% Kansas State Auburn by 6.6 Kansas State
Fri 8:00 PM ESPN FBS Connecticut at South Florida -2 Connecticut by 0.8 (18.6 - 17.8) 56.2% Connecticut Connecticut by 3.0 Connecticut
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 FBS Bowling Green at Wisconsin -27 Wisconsin by 13.2 (39.5 - 26.3) 81.9% Bowling Green Wisconsin by 18.1 Bowling Green
Sat 12:00 PM BTN FBS Eastern Michigan at Michigan State -45 Michigan State by 37.6 (44.5 - 7.0) 99.0% Eastern Michigan Michigan State by 54.8 Michigan State XXX
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN FBS Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech -8 Virginia Tech by 6.7 (33.2 - 26.5) 69.7% Georgia Tech Virginia Tech by 8.4 Virginia Tech XXX
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU FBS Iowa at Pittsburgh -7 Pittsburgh by 4.6 (27.0 - 22.4) 65.1% Iowa Pittsburgh by 5.1 Iowa
Sat 12:00 PM FSN affiliates FBS Old Dominion at Rice -7 Rice by 11.7 (34.8 - 23.1) 79.3% Rice Rice by 15.9 Rice
Sat 12:00 PM SECN FBS Troy at Georgia -41 Georgia by 30.7 (44.4 - 13.7) 99.0% Troy Georgia by 44.5 Georgia XXX
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 FBS Maryland at Syracuse -1 Syracuse by 3.4 (23.0 - 19.6) 62.4% Syracuse Syracuse by 3.4 Syracuse
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 FBS Tulane at Duke -17 Duke by 16.2 (34.3 - 18.1) 86.7% Tulane Duke by 22.6 Duke XXX
Sat 2:00 PM Pac-12 FBS Hawaii at Colorado -8 Colorado by 2.7 (19.7 - 17.0) 60.8% Hawaii Colorado by 2.3 Hawaii
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 FBS Marshall at Akron -9.5 Marshall by 8.3 (29.2 - 20.9) 72.8% Marshall Marshall by 14.2 Marshall
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 FBS Army at Wake Forest 3 Wake Forest by 4.2 (20.3 - 16.2) 64.1% Wake Forest Wake Forest by 4.5 Wake Forest
Sat 3:30 PM FSN affiliates FBS Central Michigan at Kansas -3.5 Kansas by 2.2 (20.4 - 18.1) 59.6% Central Michigan Kansas by 1.6 Central Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM CBS FBS Florida at Alabama -14 Alabama by 17.1 (37.2 - 20.1) 88.0% Alabama Alabama by 23.9 Alabama
Sat 3:30 PM FS1 FBS Louisville at Florida International 27 Louisville by 22.5 (30.1 - 7.6) 95.2% Florida International Louisville by 35.7 Louisville XXX
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU FBS North Carolina at East Carolina -2.5 East Carolina by 0.2 (28.2 - 28.0) 54.8% North Carolina North Carolina by 1.4 North Carolina
Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN FBS Rutgers at Navy -6.5 Navy by 4.9 (31.8 - 26.9) 65.8% Rutgers Navy by 5.7 Rutgers
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 FBS Texas A&M at SMU 34 Texas A&M by 23.1 (37.2 - 14.1) 95.8% SMU Texas A&M by 36.5 Texas A&M XXX
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 FBS Utah at Michigan -5 Michigan by 4.2 (31.3 - 27.1) 64.3% Utah Michigan by 4.6 Utah
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN FBS Virginia at BYU -14 BYU by 10.8 (23.9 - 13.1) 77.6% Virginia BYU by 14.5 BYU XXX
Sat 4:00 PM MWC Video FBS Florida Atlantic at Wyoming -4 Wyoming by 0.0 (26.5 - 26.5) 54.3% Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic by 1.7 Florida Atlantic
Sat 4:00 PM SECN FBS Indiana at Missouri -14 Missouri by 13.0 (32.8 - 19.8) 81.5% Indiana Missouri by 17.7 Missouri XXX
Sat 4:00 PM BTN FBS Massachusetts at Penn State -27 Penn State by 25.1 (32.3 - 7.2) 97.9% Massachusetts Penn State by 36.1 Penn State XXX
Sat 4:00 PM BTN FBS San Jose State at Minnesota -8.5 Minnesota by 8.9 (31.8 - 22.9) 74.1% Minnesota Minnesota by 11.6 Minnesota
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN News FBS Texas State at Illinois -13.5 Illinois by 12.6 (39.2 - 26.6) 80.9% Texas State Illinois by 17.2 Illinois XXX
Sat 6:00 PM Pac-12 FBS Georgia State at Washington -34 Washington by 27.9 (45.0 - 17.2) 99.0% Georgia State Washington by 40.2 Washington XXX
Sat 7:00 PM NESN FBS Appalachian State at Southern Miss -3 Southern Miss by 8.3 (30.2 - 21.9) 72.9% Southern Miss Southern Miss by 10.7 Southern Miss
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 FBS Ball State at Toledo -14 Toledo by 7.2 (32.9 - 25.7) 70.6% Ball State Toledo by 9.1 Ball State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 FBS Idaho at Ohio -14 Ohio by 5.9 (30.4 - 24.5) 68.0% Idaho Ohio by 7.2 Idaho
Sat 7:00 PM CBSSN FBS Miami-OH at Cincinnati -28 Cincinnati by 22.3 (32.4 - 10.1) 94.9% Miami-OH Cincinnati by 31.8 Cincinnati XXX
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 FBS Middle Tennessee at Memphis -12 Memphis by 5.7 (37.9 - 32.2) 67.5% Middle Tennessee Memphis by 6.8 Middle Tennessee
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN FBS Mississippi State at LSU -10 LSU by 6.0 (25.1 - 19.1) 68.1% Mississippi State LSU by 7.3 Mississippi State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU FBS Northern Illinois at Arkansas -14 Arkansas by 6.7 (37.0 - 30.4) 69.6% Northern Illinois Arkansas by 8.3 Northern Illinois
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 FBS Utah State at Arkansas State -2 Arkansas State by 0.3 (20.7 - 20.4) 55.0% Utah State Utah State by 1.3 Utah State
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 FBS Georgia Southern at South Alabama 2 South Alabama by 7.2 (31.1 - 23.9) 70.7% South Alabama South Alabama by 9.1 South Alabama
Sat 7:30 PM Fox FBS Oklahoma at West Virginia 8 Oklahoma by 10.9 (36.1 - 25.2) 77.9% Oklahoma Oklahoma by 18.2 Oklahoma
Sat 7:30 PM SECN FBS South Carolina at Vanderbilt 22 South Carolina by 16.1 (34.3 - 18.3) 86.5% Vanderbilt South Carolina by 26.0 South Carolina XXX
Sat 8:00 PM ABC FBS Clemson at Florida State -16.5 Florida State by 17.5 (34.9 - 17.4) 88.7% Florida State Florida State by 24.6 Florida State
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN2 FBS Miami-FL at Nebraska -7.5 Nebraska by 4.3 (28.4 - 24.1) 64.4% Miami-FL Nebraska by 4.7 Miami-FL
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN3 FBS New Mexico at New Mexico State 3.5 New Mexico by 3.6 (31.4 - 27.8) 62.9% New Mexico New Mexico by 7.2 New Mexico
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN3 FBS UNLV at Houston -22 Houston by 14.6 (29.9 - 15.4) 84.2% UNLV Houston by 20.2 UNLV
Sat 10:00 PM Pac-12 FBS California at Arizona -9.5 Arizona by 10.5 (32.8 - 22.3) 77.0% Arizona Arizona by 14.0 Arizona
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN FBS Oregon at Washington State 23.5 Oregon by 17.8 (46.3 - 28.5) 89.1% Washington State Oregon by 28.6 Oregon XXX
Sat 10:30 PM FS1 FBS San Diego State at Oregon State -10 Oregon State by 15.8 (37.6 - 21.8) 86.1% Oregon State Oregon State by 22.0 Oregon State
Sat 10:30 PM CBSSN FBS UL-Lafayette at Boise State -17 Boise State by 20.8 (39.4 - 18.6) 93.1% Boise State Boise State by 29.6 Boise State

FBS vs. FCS

Day Time (ET) TV Type Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning
Sat 12:00 PM BTN FCS Southern Illinois at Purdue
Purdue by 1.8 (26.4 - 24.6) 58.6%
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News FCS Western Illinois at Northwestern Northwestern by 17.1 (31.4 - 14.4) 88.0%
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 FCS Delaware State at Temple Temple by 21.8 (33.1 - 11.3) 94.3%
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 FCS Maine at Boston College Boston College by 14.7 (33.2 - 18.5) 84.3%
Sat 3:30 PM NESN FCS Nicholls State at North Texas North Texas by 8.9 (23.7 - 14.9) 74.0%
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 FCS Norfolk State at Buffalo Buffalo by 16.0 (32.2 - 16.2) 86.4%
Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 FCS Bethune-Cookman at Central Florida Central Florida by 15.7 (33.9 - 18.2) 85.9%
Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 FCS Presbyterian at NC State NC State by 33.9 (46.3 - 12.3) 99.0%
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 FCS Murray State at Western Michigan Western Michigan by 9.8 (34.1 - 24.3) 75.7%
Sat 7:00 PM $CSLive FCS Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech by 6.9 (26.4 - 19.5) 70.0%
Sat 10:00 PM MWC Video FCS Southern Utah at Fresno State Fresno State by 4.4 (25.4 - 20.9) 64.8%