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The good:
Week 3 | 2014 Season | |
50-60% chance of winning | 2-4 (33%) | 8-9 (47%) |
60-70% chance of winning | 5-4 (56%) | 25-14 (64%) |
70-80% chance of winning | 14-2 (88%) | 48-8 (86%) |
80-90% chance of winning | 8-2 (80%) | 49-6 (89%) |
90-100% chance of winning | 10-0 (100%) | 41-1 (98%) |
I was concerned about the high-probability picks not living up to percentages early in the season, while the rankings were still coagulating. I shouldn't have worried. The F/+ rankings have a very good read on the college football hierarchy.
The ... less good:
Week 3 | 2014 Season | |
"NEW" Method | 20-29-2 (41%) | 84-93-3 (48%) |
"OLD" Method | 25-24-2 (51%) | 66-66-2 (50%) |
When Both Methods Agree | 10-16-1 (39%) | 39-43-1 (48%) |
Vegas also has a good read on the hierarchy, and I still haven't figured out the best way to turn ratings into point spreads. Not having a huge first week is going to continue backfiring this season -- typically I bolts out of the gates around 60-65%, then slowly trickle toward .500. Week 1 stunk this year, so here we are. Good read for hierarchy, bad read for points.
FBS vs. FBS
Regardless of how terrible they may be ... here are your picks.
Day | Time (ET) | TV | Type | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN | FBS | Auburn at Kansas State | 8.5 | Auburn by 3.2 (36.1 - 33.0) | 61.9% | Kansas State | Auburn by 6.6 | Kansas State | |
Fri | 8:00 PM | ESPN | FBS | Connecticut at South Florida | -2 | Connecticut by 0.8 (18.6 - 17.8) | 56.2% | Connecticut | Connecticut by 3.0 | Connecticut | |
Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | FBS | Bowling Green at Wisconsin | -27 | Wisconsin by 13.2 (39.5 - 26.3) | 81.9% | Bowling Green | Wisconsin by 18.1 | Bowling Green | |
Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | FBS | Eastern Michigan at Michigan State | -45 | Michigan State by 37.6 (44.5 - 7.0) | 99.0% | Eastern Michigan | Michigan State by 54.8 | Michigan State | XXX |
Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | FBS | Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech | -8 | Virginia Tech by 6.7 (33.2 - 26.5) | 69.7% | Georgia Tech | Virginia Tech by 8.4 | Virginia Tech | XXX |
Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | FBS | Iowa at Pittsburgh | -7 | Pittsburgh by 4.6 (27.0 - 22.4) | 65.1% | Iowa | Pittsburgh by 5.1 | Iowa | |
Sat | 12:00 PM | FSN affiliates | FBS | Old Dominion at Rice | -7 | Rice by 11.7 (34.8 - 23.1) | 79.3% | Rice | Rice by 15.9 | Rice | |
Sat | 12:00 PM | SECN | FBS | Troy at Georgia | -41 | Georgia by 30.7 (44.4 - 13.7) | 99.0% | Troy | Georgia by 44.5 | Georgia | XXX |
Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Maryland at Syracuse | -1 | Syracuse by 3.4 (23.0 - 19.6) | 62.4% | Syracuse | Syracuse by 3.4 | Syracuse | |
Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Tulane at Duke | -17 | Duke by 16.2 (34.3 - 18.1) | 86.7% | Tulane | Duke by 22.6 | Duke | XXX |
Sat | 2:00 PM | Pac-12 | FBS | Hawaii at Colorado | -8 | Colorado by 2.7 (19.7 - 17.0) | 60.8% | Hawaii | Colorado by 2.3 | Hawaii | |
Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Marshall at Akron | -9.5 | Marshall by 8.3 (29.2 - 20.9) | 72.8% | Marshall | Marshall by 14.2 | Marshall | |
Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Army at Wake Forest | 3 | Wake Forest by 4.2 (20.3 - 16.2) | 64.1% | Wake Forest | Wake Forest by 4.5 | Wake Forest | |
Sat | 3:30 PM | FSN affiliates | FBS | Central Michigan at Kansas | -3.5 | Kansas by 2.2 (20.4 - 18.1) | 59.6% | Central Michigan | Kansas by 1.6 | Central Michigan | |
Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | FBS | Florida at Alabama | -14 | Alabama by 17.1 (37.2 - 20.1) | 88.0% | Alabama | Alabama by 23.9 | Alabama | |
Sat | 3:30 PM | FS1 | FBS | Louisville at Florida International | 27 | Louisville by 22.5 (30.1 - 7.6) | 95.2% | Florida International | Louisville by 35.7 | Louisville | XXX |
Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | FBS | North Carolina at East Carolina | -2.5 | East Carolina by 0.2 (28.2 - 28.0) | 54.8% | North Carolina | North Carolina by 1.4 | North Carolina | |
Sat | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | FBS | Rutgers at Navy | -6.5 | Navy by 4.9 (31.8 - 26.9) | 65.8% | Rutgers | Navy by 5.7 | Rutgers | |
Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | FBS | Texas A&M at SMU | 34 | Texas A&M by 23.1 (37.2 - 14.1) | 95.8% | SMU | Texas A&M by 36.5 | Texas A&M | XXX |
Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | FBS | Utah at Michigan | -5 | Michigan by 4.2 (31.3 - 27.1) | 64.3% | Utah | Michigan by 4.6 | Utah | |
Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN | FBS | Virginia at BYU | -14 | BYU by 10.8 (23.9 - 13.1) | 77.6% | Virginia | BYU by 14.5 | BYU | XXX |
Sat | 4:00 PM | MWC Video | FBS | Florida Atlantic at Wyoming | -4 | Wyoming by 0.0 (26.5 - 26.5) | 54.3% | Florida Atlantic | Florida Atlantic by 1.7 | Florida Atlantic | |
Sat | 4:00 PM | SECN | FBS | Indiana at Missouri | -14 | Missouri by 13.0 (32.8 - 19.8) | 81.5% | Indiana | Missouri by 17.7 | Missouri | XXX |
Sat | 4:00 PM | BTN | FBS | Massachusetts at Penn State | -27 | Penn State by 25.1 (32.3 - 7.2) | 97.9% | Massachusetts | Penn State by 36.1 | Penn State | XXX |
Sat | 4:00 PM | BTN | FBS | San Jose State at Minnesota | -8.5 | Minnesota by 8.9 (31.8 - 22.9) | 74.1% | Minnesota | Minnesota by 11.6 | Minnesota | |
Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN News | FBS | Texas State at Illinois | -13.5 | Illinois by 12.6 (39.2 - 26.6) | 80.9% | Texas State | Illinois by 17.2 | Illinois | XXX |
Sat | 6:00 PM | Pac-12 | FBS | Georgia State at Washington | -34 | Washington by 27.9 (45.0 - 17.2) | 99.0% | Georgia State | Washington by 40.2 | Washington | XXX |
Sat | 7:00 PM | NESN | FBS | Appalachian State at Southern Miss | -3 | Southern Miss by 8.3 (30.2 - 21.9) | 72.9% | Southern Miss | Southern Miss by 10.7 | Southern Miss | |
Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Ball State at Toledo | -14 | Toledo by 7.2 (32.9 - 25.7) | 70.6% | Ball State | Toledo by 9.1 | Ball State | |
Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Idaho at Ohio | -14 | Ohio by 5.9 (30.4 - 24.5) | 68.0% | Idaho | Ohio by 7.2 | Idaho | |
Sat | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | FBS | Miami-OH at Cincinnati | -28 | Cincinnati by 22.3 (32.4 - 10.1) | 94.9% | Miami-OH | Cincinnati by 31.8 | Cincinnati | XXX |
Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Middle Tennessee at Memphis | -12 | Memphis by 5.7 (37.9 - 32.2) | 67.5% | Middle Tennessee | Memphis by 6.8 | Middle Tennessee | |
Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN | FBS | Mississippi State at LSU | -10 | LSU by 6.0 (25.1 - 19.1) | 68.1% | Mississippi State | LSU by 7.3 | Mississippi State | |
Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | FBS | Northern Illinois at Arkansas | -14 | Arkansas by 6.7 (37.0 - 30.4) | 69.6% | Northern Illinois | Arkansas by 8.3 | Northern Illinois | |
Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Utah State at Arkansas State | -2 | Arkansas State by 0.3 (20.7 - 20.4) | 55.0% | Utah State | Utah State by 1.3 | Utah State | |
Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Georgia Southern at South Alabama | 2 | South Alabama by 7.2 (31.1 - 23.9) | 70.7% | South Alabama | South Alabama by 9.1 | South Alabama | |
Sat | 7:30 PM | Fox | FBS | Oklahoma at West Virginia | 8 | Oklahoma by 10.9 (36.1 - 25.2) | 77.9% | Oklahoma | Oklahoma by 18.2 | Oklahoma | |
Sat | 7:30 PM | SECN | FBS | South Carolina at Vanderbilt | 22 | South Carolina by 16.1 (34.3 - 18.3) | 86.5% | Vanderbilt | South Carolina by 26.0 | South Carolina | XXX |
Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | FBS | Clemson at Florida State | -16.5 | Florida State by 17.5 (34.9 - 17.4) | 88.7% | Florida State | Florida State by 24.6 | Florida State | |
Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | FBS | Miami-FL at Nebraska | -7.5 | Nebraska by 4.3 (28.4 - 24.1) | 64.4% | Miami-FL | Nebraska by 4.7 | Miami-FL | |
Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | New Mexico at New Mexico State | 3.5 | New Mexico by 3.6 (31.4 - 27.8) | 62.9% | New Mexico | New Mexico by 7.2 | New Mexico | |
Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | UNLV at Houston | -22 | Houston by 14.6 (29.9 - 15.4) | 84.2% | UNLV | Houston by 20.2 | UNLV | |
Sat | 10:00 PM | Pac-12 | FBS | California at Arizona | -9.5 | Arizona by 10.5 (32.8 - 22.3) | 77.0% | Arizona | Arizona by 14.0 | Arizona | |
Sat | 10:30 PM | ESPN | FBS | Oregon at Washington State | 23.5 | Oregon by 17.8 (46.3 - 28.5) | 89.1% | Washington State | Oregon by 28.6 | Oregon | XXX |
Sat | 10:30 PM | FS1 | FBS | San Diego State at Oregon State | -10 | Oregon State by 15.8 (37.6 - 21.8) | 86.1% | Oregon State | Oregon State by 22.0 | Oregon State | |
Sat | 10:30 PM | CBSSN | FBS | UL-Lafayette at Boise State | -17 | Boise State by 20.8 (39.4 - 18.6) | 93.1% | Boise State | Boise State by 29.6 | Boise State |
FBS vs. FCS
Day | Time (ET) | TV | Type | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning |
Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | FCS | Southern Illinois at Purdue | Purdue by 1.8 (26.4 - 24.6) | 58.6% | |
Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN News | FCS | Western Illinois at Northwestern | Northwestern by 17.1 (31.4 - 14.4) | 88.0% | |
Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | FCS | Delaware State at Temple | Temple by 21.8 (33.1 - 11.3) | 94.3% | |
Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | FCS | Maine at Boston College | Boston College by 14.7 (33.2 - 18.5) | 84.3% | |
Sat | 3:30 PM | NESN | FCS | Nicholls State at North Texas | North Texas by 8.9 (23.7 - 14.9) | 74.0% | |
Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | FCS | Norfolk State at Buffalo | Buffalo by 16.0 (32.2 - 16.2) | 86.4% | |
Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | FCS | Bethune-Cookman at Central Florida | Central Florida by 15.7 (33.9 - 18.2) | 85.9% | |
Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | FCS | Presbyterian at NC State | NC State by 33.9 (46.3 - 12.3) | 99.0% | |
Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | FCS | Murray State at Western Michigan | Western Michigan by 9.8 (34.1 - 24.3) | 75.7% | |
Sat | 7:00 PM | $CSLive | FCS | Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech by 6.9 (26.4 - 19.5) | 70.0% | |
Sat | 10:00 PM | MWC Video | FCS | Southern Utah at Fresno State | Fresno State by 4.4 (25.4 - 20.9) | 64.8% |
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