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The good:
| Week 3 | 2014 Season | |
| 50-60% chance of winning | 2-4 (33%) | 8-9 (47%) |
| 60-70% chance of winning | 5-4 (56%) | 25-14 (64%) |
| 70-80% chance of winning | 14-2 (88%) | 48-8 (86%) |
| 80-90% chance of winning | 8-2 (80%) | 49-6 (89%) |
| 90-100% chance of winning | 10-0 (100%) | 41-1 (98%) |
I was concerned about the high-probability picks not living up to percentages early in the season, while the rankings were still coagulating. I shouldn't have worried. The F/+ rankings have a very good read on the college football hierarchy.
The ... less good:
| Week 3 | 2014 Season | |
| "NEW" Method | 20-29-2 (41%) | 84-93-3 (48%) |
| "OLD" Method | 25-24-2 (51%) | 66-66-2 (50%) |
| When Both Methods Agree | 10-16-1 (39%) | 39-43-1 (48%) |
Vegas also has a good read on the hierarchy, and I still haven't figured out the best way to turn ratings into point spreads. Not having a huge first week is going to continue backfiring this season -- typically I bolts out of the gates around 60-65%, then slowly trickle toward .500. Week 1 stunk this year, so here we are. Good read for hierarchy, bad read for points.
FBS vs. FBS
Regardless of how terrible they may be ... here are your picks.
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Type | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN | FBS | Auburn at Kansas State | 8.5 | Auburn by 3.2 (36.1 - 33.0) | 61.9% | Kansas State | Auburn by 6.6 | Kansas State | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | ESPN | FBS | Connecticut at South Florida | -2 | Connecticut by 0.8 (18.6 - 17.8) | 56.2% | Connecticut | Connecticut by 3.0 | Connecticut | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | FBS | Bowling Green at Wisconsin | -27 | Wisconsin by 13.2 (39.5 - 26.3) | 81.9% | Bowling Green | Wisconsin by 18.1 | Bowling Green | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | FBS | Eastern Michigan at Michigan State | -45 | Michigan State by 37.6 (44.5 - 7.0) | 99.0% | Eastern Michigan | Michigan State by 54.8 | Michigan State | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | FBS | Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech | -8 | Virginia Tech by 6.7 (33.2 - 26.5) | 69.7% | Georgia Tech | Virginia Tech by 8.4 | Virginia Tech | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | FBS | Iowa at Pittsburgh | -7 | Pittsburgh by 4.6 (27.0 - 22.4) | 65.1% | Iowa | Pittsburgh by 5.1 | Iowa | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FSN affiliates | FBS | Old Dominion at Rice | -7 | Rice by 11.7 (34.8 - 23.1) | 79.3% | Rice | Rice by 15.9 | Rice | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SECN | FBS | Troy at Georgia | -41 | Georgia by 30.7 (44.4 - 13.7) | 99.0% | Troy | Georgia by 44.5 | Georgia | XXX |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Maryland at Syracuse | -1 | Syracuse by 3.4 (23.0 - 19.6) | 62.4% | Syracuse | Syracuse by 3.4 | Syracuse | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Tulane at Duke | -17 | Duke by 16.2 (34.3 - 18.1) | 86.7% | Tulane | Duke by 22.6 | Duke | XXX |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | Pac-12 | FBS | Hawaii at Colorado | -8 | Colorado by 2.7 (19.7 - 17.0) | 60.8% | Hawaii | Colorado by 2.3 | Hawaii | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Marshall at Akron | -9.5 | Marshall by 8.3 (29.2 - 20.9) | 72.8% | Marshall | Marshall by 14.2 | Marshall | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Army at Wake Forest | 3 | Wake Forest by 4.2 (20.3 - 16.2) | 64.1% | Wake Forest | Wake Forest by 4.5 | Wake Forest | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | FSN affiliates | FBS | Central Michigan at Kansas | -3.5 | Kansas by 2.2 (20.4 - 18.1) | 59.6% | Central Michigan | Kansas by 1.6 | Central Michigan | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | FBS | Florida at Alabama | -14 | Alabama by 17.1 (37.2 - 20.1) | 88.0% | Alabama | Alabama by 23.9 | Alabama | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | FS1 | FBS | Louisville at Florida International | 27 | Louisville by 22.5 (30.1 - 7.6) | 95.2% | Florida International | Louisville by 35.7 | Louisville | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | FBS | North Carolina at East Carolina | -2.5 | East Carolina by 0.2 (28.2 - 28.0) | 54.8% | North Carolina | North Carolina by 1.4 | North Carolina | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | FBS | Rutgers at Navy | -6.5 | Navy by 4.9 (31.8 - 26.9) | 65.8% | Rutgers | Navy by 5.7 | Rutgers | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | FBS | Texas A&M at SMU | 34 | Texas A&M by 23.1 (37.2 - 14.1) | 95.8% | SMU | Texas A&M by 36.5 | Texas A&M | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | FBS | Utah at Michigan | -5 | Michigan by 4.2 (31.3 - 27.1) | 64.3% | Utah | Michigan by 4.6 | Utah | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN | FBS | Virginia at BYU | -14 | BYU by 10.8 (23.9 - 13.1) | 77.6% | Virginia | BYU by 14.5 | BYU | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | MWC Video | FBS | Florida Atlantic at Wyoming | -4 | Wyoming by 0.0 (26.5 - 26.5) | 54.3% | Florida Atlantic | Florida Atlantic by 1.7 | Florida Atlantic | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | SECN | FBS | Indiana at Missouri | -14 | Missouri by 13.0 (32.8 - 19.8) | 81.5% | Indiana | Missouri by 17.7 | Missouri | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | BTN | FBS | Massachusetts at Penn State | -27 | Penn State by 25.1 (32.3 - 7.2) | 97.9% | Massachusetts | Penn State by 36.1 | Penn State | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | BTN | FBS | San Jose State at Minnesota | -8.5 | Minnesota by 8.9 (31.8 - 22.9) | 74.1% | Minnesota | Minnesota by 11.6 | Minnesota | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN News | FBS | Texas State at Illinois | -13.5 | Illinois by 12.6 (39.2 - 26.6) | 80.9% | Texas State | Illinois by 17.2 | Illinois | XXX |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Pac-12 | FBS | Georgia State at Washington | -34 | Washington by 27.9 (45.0 - 17.2) | 99.0% | Georgia State | Washington by 40.2 | Washington | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | NESN | FBS | Appalachian State at Southern Miss | -3 | Southern Miss by 8.3 (30.2 - 21.9) | 72.9% | Southern Miss | Southern Miss by 10.7 | Southern Miss | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Ball State at Toledo | -14 | Toledo by 7.2 (32.9 - 25.7) | 70.6% | Ball State | Toledo by 9.1 | Ball State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Idaho at Ohio | -14 | Ohio by 5.9 (30.4 - 24.5) | 68.0% | Idaho | Ohio by 7.2 | Idaho | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | FBS | Miami-OH at Cincinnati | -28 | Cincinnati by 22.3 (32.4 - 10.1) | 94.9% | Miami-OH | Cincinnati by 31.8 | Cincinnati | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Middle Tennessee at Memphis | -12 | Memphis by 5.7 (37.9 - 32.2) | 67.5% | Middle Tennessee | Memphis by 6.8 | Middle Tennessee | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN | FBS | Mississippi State at LSU | -10 | LSU by 6.0 (25.1 - 19.1) | 68.1% | Mississippi State | LSU by 7.3 | Mississippi State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | FBS | Northern Illinois at Arkansas | -14 | Arkansas by 6.7 (37.0 - 30.4) | 69.6% | Northern Illinois | Arkansas by 8.3 | Northern Illinois | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Utah State at Arkansas State | -2 | Arkansas State by 0.3 (20.7 - 20.4) | 55.0% | Utah State | Utah State by 1.3 | Utah State | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | Georgia Southern at South Alabama | 2 | South Alabama by 7.2 (31.1 - 23.9) | 70.7% | South Alabama | South Alabama by 9.1 | South Alabama | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Fox | FBS | Oklahoma at West Virginia | 8 | Oklahoma by 10.9 (36.1 - 25.2) | 77.9% | Oklahoma | Oklahoma by 18.2 | Oklahoma | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | SECN | FBS | South Carolina at Vanderbilt | 22 | South Carolina by 16.1 (34.3 - 18.3) | 86.5% | Vanderbilt | South Carolina by 26.0 | South Carolina | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | FBS | Clemson at Florida State | -16.5 | Florida State by 17.5 (34.9 - 17.4) | 88.7% | Florida State | Florida State by 24.6 | Florida State | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | FBS | Miami-FL at Nebraska | -7.5 | Nebraska by 4.3 (28.4 - 24.1) | 64.4% | Miami-FL | Nebraska by 4.7 | Miami-FL | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | New Mexico at New Mexico State | 3.5 | New Mexico by 3.6 (31.4 - 27.8) | 62.9% | New Mexico | New Mexico by 7.2 | New Mexico | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | FBS | UNLV at Houston | -22 | Houston by 14.6 (29.9 - 15.4) | 84.2% | UNLV | Houston by 20.2 | UNLV | |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | Pac-12 | FBS | California at Arizona | -9.5 | Arizona by 10.5 (32.8 - 22.3) | 77.0% | Arizona | Arizona by 14.0 | Arizona | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | ESPN | FBS | Oregon at Washington State | 23.5 | Oregon by 17.8 (46.3 - 28.5) | 89.1% | Washington State | Oregon by 28.6 | Oregon | XXX |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | FS1 | FBS | San Diego State at Oregon State | -10 | Oregon State by 15.8 (37.6 - 21.8) | 86.1% | Oregon State | Oregon State by 22.0 | Oregon State | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | CBSSN | FBS | UL-Lafayette at Boise State | -17 | Boise State by 20.8 (39.4 - 18.6) | 93.1% | Boise State | Boise State by 29.6 | Boise State |
FBS vs. FCS
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Type | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | FCS | Southern Illinois at Purdue | Purdue by 1.8 (26.4 - 24.6) | 58.6% | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN News | FCS | Western Illinois at Northwestern | Northwestern by 17.1 (31.4 - 14.4) | 88.0% | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | FCS | Delaware State at Temple | Temple by 21.8 (33.1 - 11.3) | 94.3% | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | FCS | Maine at Boston College | Boston College by 14.7 (33.2 - 18.5) | 84.3% | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | NESN | FCS | Nicholls State at North Texas | North Texas by 8.9 (23.7 - 14.9) | 74.0% | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | FCS | Norfolk State at Buffalo | Buffalo by 16.0 (32.2 - 16.2) | 86.4% | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | FCS | Bethune-Cookman at Central Florida | Central Florida by 15.7 (33.9 - 18.2) | 85.9% | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | FCS | Presbyterian at NC State | NC State by 33.9 (46.3 - 12.3) | 99.0% | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | FCS | Murray State at Western Michigan | Western Michigan by 9.8 (34.1 - 24.3) | 75.7% | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | $CSLive | FCS | Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech by 6.9 (26.4 - 19.5) | 70.0% | |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | MWC Video | FCS | Southern Utah at Fresno State | Fresno State by 4.4 (25.4 - 20.9) | 64.8% |
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