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You probably know the routine by now. Each offseason I vow to dive into my projections process to figure out the most effective way to use the F/+ rankings to make predictions against the spread. Then I overload myself with other projects and wake up on Thursday of Week 1 thinking, "Crap! I've got to make a picks post today!"
Granted, I realized it on Wednesday this week instead of Thursday, but ... yeah, we'll pick right up with the same process we left last year.
Below are two sets of picks: the "NEW" picks below (which aren't as new anymore) come from a system I devised last year. They're based on more sound math, and they're more detailed -- % chance of winning, projected scores, etc. The "OLD" picks below are based simply on turning F/+ into a rating, with a defined ceiling and floor, and adding a home-field advantage.
If last year is any indication, the OLD picks will do better until there's enough data for the NEW picks to take over. In Week 1 in 2013, the NEW picks, which also project FCS-vs-FBS games, went 17-13 in those games and 20-25 in FBS-vs-FBS games. The OLD picks, meanwhile, went 30-15 in FBS-vs-FBS games. I don't expect 30-15 again, but I would expect the older, simpler arrangement to once again do better out of the chutes.
FBS Games
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | New Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Diff? |
| Thurs | 6:00 PM | SECN | Texas A&M at South Carolina | -10.5 | South Carolina by 6.4 (41.2 - 34.8) | 68.9% | Texas A&M | South Carolina by 4.1 | Texas A&M | |
| Thurs | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Wake Forest at UL-Monroe | -2 | UL-Monroe by 0.2 (18.4 - 18.2) | 54.8% | Wake Forest | Wake Forest by 4.8 | Wake Forest | |
| Thurs | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Boise State vs. Ole Miss | -10.5 | Ole Miss by 0.7 (22.6 - 21.9) | 56.0% | Boise State | Ole Miss by 1.0 | Boise State | |
| Thurs | 8:00 PM | CBSSN | Tulane at Tulsa | -6.5 | Tulsa by 6.4 (19.9 - 13.6) | 68.9% | Tulane | Tulsa by 4.2 | Tulane | |
| Thurs | 9:15 PM | SECN | Temple at Vanderbilt | -13.5 | Vanderbilt by 8.0 (37.1 - 29.1) | 72.3% | Temple | Vanderbilt by 6.5 | Temple | |
| Thurs | 10:00 PM | FS1 | Rutgers at Washington State | -8 | Washington State by 6.4 (33.3 - 26.9) | 69.0% | Rutgers | Washington State by 4.2 | Rutgers | |
| Fri | 7:00 PM | ESPN | BYU at Connecticut | 16.5 | BYU by 8.5 (26.2 - 17.7) | 73.2% | Connecticut | BYU by 17.4 | BYU | XXX |
| Fri | 7:30 PM | CBSSN | Bowling Green at Western Kentucky | 7.5 | Bowling Green by 3.4 (34.8 - 31.4) | 62.4% | Western Kentucky | Bowling Green by 10.0 | Bowling Green | XXX |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | FS1 | Colorado State vs. Colorado | -3 | Colorado State by 3.2 (25.3 - 22.1) | 61.9% | Colorado State | Colorado State by 4.7 | Colorado State | |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | ESPNU | UTSA at Houston | -10.5 | Houston by 12.1 (34.1 - 22.0) | 80.0% | Houston | Houston by 12.5 | Houston | |
| Fri | 10:30 PM | ESPN | UNLV at Arizona | -23.5 | Arizona by 19.1 (41.7 - 22.6) | 90.9% | UNLV | Arizona by 22.6 | UNLV | |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | New Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Diff? |
| Sat | 8:30 AM | ESPN2 | Penn State vs. Central Florida | -2 | Central Florida by 5.1 (26.1 - 21.0) | 66.2% | Central Florida | Central Florida by 7.4 | Central Florida | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | UCLA at Virginia | 21 | UCLA by 9.4 (26.6 - 17.3) | 75.0% | Virginia | UCLA by 18.7 | Virginia | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Appalachian State at Michigan | -34.5 | Michigan by 27.3 (43.8 - 16.5) | 99.0% | Appalachian State | Michigan by 34.6 | Michigan | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Ohio State at Navy | 16.5 | Ohio State by 9.3 (44.2 - 34.9) | 74.9% | Navy | Ohio State by 18.6 | Ohio State | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Western Michigan at Purdue | -10 | Purdue by 5.5 (30.9 - 25.4) | 67.0% | Western Michigan | Purdue by 2.9 | Western Michigan | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FCSC | Troy at UAB | -2.5 | UAB by 1.7 (45.3 - 43.6) | 58.3% | Troy | Troy by 2.7 | Troy | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ACC Network/ ESPN3 |
Georgia Southern at NC State | -20.5 | NC State by 17.6 (35.0 - 17.4) | 88.8% | Georgia Southern | NC State by 20.4 | Georgia Southern | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Boston College at Massachusetts | 17 | Boston College by 12.1 (30.8 - 18.7) | 79.9% | Massachusetts | Boston College by 22.6 | Boston College | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Florida Atlantic at Nebraska | -21 | Nebraska by 14.7 (27.4 - 12.7) | 84.3% | Florida Atlantic | Nebraska by 16.2 | Florida Atlantic | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ ESPN2 |
California at Northwestern | -11 | Northwestern by 11.5 (36.4 - 24.9) | 79.0% | Northwestern | Northwestern by 11.6 | Northwestern | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ ESPN2 |
West Virginia vs. Alabama | -26 | Alabama by 22.4 (36.4 - 14.0) | 95.0% | West Virginia | Alabama by 32.5 | Alabama | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | NBC | Rice at Notre Dame | -21 | Notre Dame by 17.9 (39.2 - 21.3) | 89.2% | Rice | Notre Dame by 20.9 | Rice | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Marshall at Miami-OH | 24 | Marshall by 14.2 (34.9 - 20.7) | 83.7% | Miami-OH | Marshall by 25.8 | Marshall | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | SECN | Arkansas at Auburn | -19 | Auburn by 17.7 (43.9 - 26.2) | 88.9% | Arkansas | Auburn by 20.6 | Auburn | XXX |
| Sat | 5:30 PM | ESPN | Clemson at Georgia | -7.5 | Georgia by 4.6 (30.9 - 26.3) | 65.0% | Clemson | Georgia by 1.5 | Clemson | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Ohio at Kent State | -3 | Kent State by 5.8 (27.1 - 21.3) | 67.7% | Kent State | Kent State by 3.3 | Kent State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Idaho at Florida | -36.5 | Florida by 24.8 (31.1 - 6.4) | 97.6% | Idaho | Florida by 30.9 | Idaho | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | FSN PPV | Louisiana Tech at Oklahoma | -38 | Oklahoma by 27.3 (38.4 - 11.1) | 99.0% | Louisiana Tech | Oklahoma by 34.5 | Louisiana Tech | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Fox | Fresno State at USC | -22 | USC by 15.9 (34.2 - 18.3) | 86.3% | Fresno State | USC by 18.0 | Fresno State | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | SECN | Southern Miss at Mississippi State | -30.5 | Mississippi State by 22.9 (33.7 - 10.8) | 95.5% | Southern Miss | Mississippi State by 28.1 | Southern Miss | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | MWC Video | UTEP at New Mexico | -7.5 | New Mexico by 4.4 (53.6 - 49.2) | 64.7% | UTEP | New Mexico by 1.3 | UTEP | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | LHN | North Texas at Texas | -25.5 | Texas by 13.7 (29.4 - 15.7) | 82.7% | North Texas | Texas by 14.8 | North Texas | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Florida State vs. Oklahoma State | 17.5 | Florida State by 13.3 (29.1 - 15.9) | 82.1% | Oklahoma State | Florida State by 19.3 | Florida State | XXX |
| Sat | 9:00 PM | ESPN | Wisconsin vs. LSU | -5 | LSU by 3.2 (29.2 - 26.1) | 61.9% | Wisconsin | LSU by 4.6 | Wisconsin | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | CBSSN | Washington at Hawaii | 17 | Washington by 13.8 (35.0 - 21.1) | 83.0% | Hawaii | Washington by 25.2 | Washington | XXX |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | New Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Diff? |
| Sun | 7:00 PM | SECN | Utah State at Tennessee | -6 | Tennessee by 0.9 (15.6 - 14.7) | 56.5% | Utah State | Utah State by 3.8 | Utah State | |
| Sun | 7:30 PM | FS1 | SMU at Baylor | -33 | Baylor by 20.5 (44.0 - 23.5) | 92.7% | SMU | Baylor by 24.7 | SMU | |
| Mon | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Miami-FL at Louisville | -3.5 | Louisville by 8.6 (41.8 - 33.2) | 73.4% | Louisville | Louisville by 7.3 | Louisville |
FCS Games
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick |
| Wed | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Abilene Christian at Georgia State | -4 | Abilene Christian by 0.8 (28.4 - 27.7) | 56.2% | Abilene Christian |
| Thurs | 7:00 PM | BTN | Eastern Illinois at Minnesota | -16.5 | Minnesota by 8.4 (29.6 - 21.1) | 73.1% | Eastern Illinois |
| Thurs | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Howard at Akron | -21.5 | Akron by 8.8 (30.3 - 21.5) | 73.8% | Howard |
| Thurs | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Presbyterian at Northern Illinois | -41 | Northern Illinois by 33.9 (47.1 - 13.2) | 99.0% | Presbyterian |
| Thurs | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Chattanooga at Central Michigan | -12 | Central Michigan by 1.7 (32.1 - 30.4) | 58.4% | Chattanooga |
| Thurs | 7:30 PM | Pac-12 | Idaho State at Utah | -42.5 | Utah by 23.7 (37.4 - 13.7) | 96.4% | Idaho State |
| Thurs | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | Cal Poly at New Mexico State | 4 | Cal Poly by 9.6 (35.9 - 26.3) | 75.4% | Cal Poly |
| Thurs | 10:00 PM | ESPN3 | North Dakota at San Jose State | -24.5 | San Jose State by 11.1 (37.7 - 26.6) | 78.2% | North Dakota |
| Thurs | 10:30 PM | Pac-12 | Weber State at Arizona State | -46.5 | Arizona State by 30.5 (46.9 - 16.4) | 99.0% | Weber State |
| Fri | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Villanova at Syracuse | -14.5 | Syracuse by 9.2 (31.0 - 21.8) | 74.7% | Villanova |
| Fri | 7:30 PM | BTN | Jacksonville State at Michigan State | -32.5 | Michigan State by 23.7 (33.2 - 9.6) | 96.4% | Jacksonville State |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Delaware at Pittsburgh | -24 | Pittsburgh by 16.3 (34.3 - 18.0) | 86.9% | Delaware |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | North Dakota State at Iowa State | -3 | Iowa State by 7.8 (33.0 - 25.2) | 72.0% | Iowa State |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN News | Indiana State at Indiana | -23.5 | Indiana by 18.4 (46.0 - 27.6) | 90.0% | Indiana State |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Northern Iowa at Iowa | -16.5 | Iowa by 17.8 (33.2 - 15.4) | 89.1% | Iowa |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SECN | UT Martin at Kentucky | -19.5 | Kentucky by 8.5 (34.3 - 25.8) | 73.3% | UT Martin |
| Sat | 12:05 PM | BTN | Youngstown State at Illinois | -11.5 | Illinois by 6.6 (31.4 - 24.7) | 69.5% | Youngstown State |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | FSN affiliates/ ESPN3 |
Wofford at Georgia Tech | N/A | Georgia Tech by 20.3 (42.1 - 21.8) | 92.5% | N/A |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Colgate at Ball State | -25.5 | Ball State by 16.2 (39.5 - 23.3) | 86.7% | Colgate |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Nicholls State at Air Force | -20.5 | Air Force by 9.7 (39.8 - 30.1) | 75.5% | Nicholls State |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | MWC Video | Southern Utah at Nevada | -23 | Nevada by 10.6 (39.6 - 29.0) | 77.2% | Southern Utah |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | James Madison at Maryland | -22 | Maryland by 14.1 (31.7 - 17.6) | 83.4% | James Madison |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Duquesne at Buffalo | -27.5 | Buffalo by 13.8 (32.5 - 18.7) | 83.0% | Duquesne |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ASN | Hampton at Old Dominion | -30 | Old Dominion by 12.0 (32.9 - 20.9) | 79.9% | Hampton |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | South Dakota State at Missouri | -29.5 | Missouri by 20.5 (36.4 - 16.0) | 92.7% | South Dakota State |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | RSRM / RSNW | Montana at Wyoming | -7 | Wyoming by 0.7 (30.4 - 29.7) | 56.0% | Montana |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Pac-12 | Portland State at Oregon State | -31 | Oregon State by 18.5 (38.7 - 20.2) | 90.1% | Portland State |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Pac-12 | UC Davis at Stanford | -35.5 | Stanford by 32.6 (41.3 - 8.7) | 99.0% | UC Davis |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN News | William & Mary at Virginia Tech | -20 | Virginia Tech by 18.8 (28.4 - 9.5) | 90.6% | William & Mary |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Elon at Duke | -33 | Duke by 22.6 (44.3 - 21.7) | 95.2% | Elon |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Liberty at North Carolina | -29.5 | North Carolina by 18.7 (38.3 - 19.7) | 90.3% | Liberty |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Morgan State at Eastern Michigan | -15.5 | Eastern Michigan by 15.8 (41.5 - 25.7) | 86.1% | Eastern Michigan |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | New Hampshire at Toledo | 2.5 | Toledo by 11.4 (35.5 - 24.1) | 78.7% | Toledo |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Savannah State at Middle Tennessee | -40 | Middle Tennessee by 24.9 (34.3 - 9.4) | 97.7% | Savannah State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ASN | Bethune-Cookman at Florida International | 4.5 | Bethune-Cookman by 1.1 (26.3 - 25.2) | 56.9% | Florida International |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Northern Arizona at San Diego State | -20 | San Diego State by 8.1 (27.0 - 18.9) | 72.5% | Northern Arizona |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Austin Peay at Memphis | -32 | Memphis by 21.6 (31.9 - 10.3) | 94.0% | Austin Peay |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Western Carolina at South Florida | -23 | South Florida by 15.0 (29.9 - 14.9) | 84.8% | Western Carolina |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | FSN affiliates | Samford at TCU | -34 | TCU by 18.3 (28.3 - 10.0) | 89.8% | Samford |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | FSN affiliates | Central Arkansas at Texas Tech | -29.5 | Texas Tech by 16.6 (42.6 - 26.0) | 87.4% | Central Arkansas |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Montana State at Arkansas State | -6 | Arkansas State by 3.9 (25.7 - 21.8) | 63.6% | Montana State |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Southern at UL-Lafayette | -38 | UL-Lafayette by 16.8 (39.1 - 22.2) | 87.7% | Southern |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | UAPB at Texas State | -30.5 | Texas State by 20.3 (34.0 - 13.7) | 92.4% | UAPB |
| Sat | 7:10 PM | $Ulive | Stephen F. Austin at Kansas State | -36.5 | Kansas State by 24.2 (43.9 - 19.7) | 96.9% | Stephen F. Austin |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN News | NC Central at East Carolina | -40 | East Carolina by 26.7 (41.4 - 14.7) | 99.0% | NC Central |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Pac-12 | South Dakota at Oregon | -51 | Oregon by 30.9 (46.5 - 15.6) | 99.0% | South Dakota |