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College football projections: Week 1 F/+ picks

Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

You probably know the routine by now. Each offseason I vow to dive into my projections process to figure out the most effective way to use the F/+ rankings to make predictions against the spread. Then I overload myself with other projects and wake up on Thursday of Week 1 thinking, "Crap! I've got to make a picks post today!"

Granted, I realized it on Wednesday this week instead of Thursday, but ... yeah, we'll pick right up with the same process we left last year.

Below are two sets of picks: the "NEW" picks below (which aren't as new anymore) come from a system I devised last year. They're based on more sound math, and they're more detailed -- % chance of winning, projected scores, etc. The "OLD" picks below are based simply on turning F/+ into a rating, with a defined ceiling and floor, and adding a home-field advantage.

If last year is any indication, the OLD picks will do better until there's enough data for the NEW picks to take over. In Week 1 in 2013, the NEW picks, which also project FCS-vs-FBS games, went 17-13 in those games and 20-25 in FBS-vs-FBS games. The OLD picks, meanwhile, went 30-15 in FBS-vs-FBS games. I don't expect 30-15 again, but I would expect the older, simpler arrangement to once again do better out of the chutes.

FBS Games

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning New Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Diff?
Thurs 6:00 PM SECN Texas A&M at South Carolina -10.5 South Carolina by 6.4 (41.2 - 34.8) 68.9% Texas A&M South Carolina by 4.1 Texas A&M
Thurs 7:00 PM ESPNU Wake Forest at UL-Monroe -2 UL-Monroe by 0.2 (18.4 - 18.2) 54.8% Wake Forest Wake Forest by 4.8 Wake Forest
Thurs 8:00 PM ESPN Boise State vs. Ole Miss -10.5 Ole Miss by 0.7 (22.6 - 21.9) 56.0% Boise State Ole Miss by 1.0 Boise State
Thurs 8:00 PM CBSSN Tulane at Tulsa -6.5 Tulsa by 6.4 (19.9 - 13.6) 68.9% Tulane Tulsa by 4.2 Tulane
Thurs 9:15 PM SECN Temple at Vanderbilt -13.5 Vanderbilt by 8.0 (37.1 - 29.1) 72.3% Temple Vanderbilt by 6.5 Temple
Thurs 10:00 PM FS1 Rutgers at Washington State -8 Washington State by 6.4 (33.3 - 26.9) 69.0% Rutgers Washington State by 4.2 Rutgers
Fri 7:00 PM ESPN BYU at Connecticut 16.5 BYU by 8.5 (26.2 - 17.7) 73.2% Connecticut BYU by 17.4 BYU XXX
Fri 7:30 PM CBSSN Bowling Green at Western Kentucky 7.5 Bowling Green by 3.4 (34.8 - 31.4) 62.4% Western Kentucky Bowling Green by 10.0 Bowling Green XXX
Fri 9:00 PM FS1 Colorado State vs. Colorado -3 Colorado State by 3.2 (25.3 - 22.1) 61.9% Colorado State Colorado State by 4.7 Colorado State
Fri 9:00 PM ESPNU UTSA at Houston -10.5 Houston by 12.1 (34.1 - 22.0) 80.0% Houston Houston by 12.5 Houston
Fri 10:30 PM ESPN UNLV at Arizona -23.5 Arizona by 19.1 (41.7 - 22.6) 90.9% UNLV Arizona by 22.6 UNLV
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning New Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Diff?
Sat 8:30 AM ESPN2 Penn State vs. Central Florida -2 Central Florida by 5.1 (26.1 - 21.0) 66.2% Central Florida Central Florida by 7.4 Central Florida
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN UCLA at Virginia 21 UCLA by 9.4 (26.6 - 17.3) 75.0% Virginia UCLA by 18.7 Virginia
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Appalachian State at Michigan -34.5 Michigan by 27.3 (43.8 - 16.5) 99.0% Appalachian State Michigan by 34.6 Michigan XXX
Sat 12:00 PM CBSSN Ohio State at Navy 16.5 Ohio State by 9.3 (44.2 - 34.9) 74.9% Navy Ohio State by 18.6 Ohio State XXX
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Western Michigan at Purdue -10 Purdue by 5.5 (30.9 - 25.4) 67.0% Western Michigan Purdue by 2.9 Western Michigan
Sat 12:00 PM FCSC Troy at UAB -2.5 UAB by 1.7 (45.3 - 43.6) 58.3% Troy Troy by 2.7 Troy
Sat 12:30 PM ACC Network/
ESPN3
Georgia Southern at NC State -20.5 NC State by 17.6 (35.0 - 17.4) 88.8% Georgia Southern NC State by 20.4 Georgia Southern
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Boston College at Massachusetts 17 Boston College by 12.1 (30.8 - 18.7) 79.9% Massachusetts Boston College by 22.6 Boston College XXX
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Florida Atlantic at Nebraska -21 Nebraska by 14.7 (27.4 - 12.7) 84.3% Florida Atlantic Nebraska by 16.2 Florida Atlantic
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/
ESPN2
California at Northwestern -11 Northwestern by 11.5 (36.4 - 24.9) 79.0% Northwestern Northwestern by 11.6 Northwestern
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/
ESPN2
West Virginia vs. Alabama -26 Alabama by 22.4 (36.4 - 14.0) 95.0% West Virginia Alabama by 32.5 Alabama XXX
Sat 3:30 PM NBC Rice at Notre Dame -21 Notre Dame by 17.9 (39.2 - 21.3) 89.2% Rice Notre Dame by 20.9 Rice
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Marshall at Miami-OH 24 Marshall by 14.2 (34.9 - 20.7) 83.7% Miami-OH Marshall by 25.8 Marshall XXX
Sat 4:00 PM SECN Arkansas at Auburn -19 Auburn by 17.7 (43.9 - 26.2) 88.9% Arkansas Auburn by 20.6 Auburn XXX
Sat 5:30 PM ESPN Clemson at Georgia -7.5 Georgia by 4.6 (30.9 - 26.3) 65.0% Clemson Georgia by 1.5 Clemson
Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 Ohio at Kent State -3 Kent State by 5.8 (27.1 - 21.3) 67.7% Kent State Kent State by 3.3 Kent State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Idaho at Florida -36.5 Florida by 24.8 (31.1 - 6.4) 97.6% Idaho Florida by 30.9 Idaho
Sat 7:00 PM FSN PPV Louisiana Tech at Oklahoma -38 Oklahoma by 27.3 (38.4 - 11.1) 99.0% Louisiana Tech Oklahoma by 34.5 Louisiana Tech
Sat 7:30 PM Fox Fresno State at USC -22 USC by 15.9 (34.2 - 18.3) 86.3% Fresno State USC by 18.0 Fresno State
Sat 7:30 PM SECN Southern Miss at Mississippi State -30.5 Mississippi State by 22.9 (33.7 - 10.8) 95.5% Southern Miss Mississippi State by 28.1 Southern Miss
Sat 8:00 PM MWC Video UTEP at New Mexico -7.5 New Mexico by 4.4 (53.6 - 49.2) 64.7% UTEP New Mexico by 1.3 UTEP
Sat 8:00 PM LHN North Texas at Texas -25.5 Texas by 13.7 (29.4 - 15.7) 82.7% North Texas Texas by 14.8 North Texas
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Florida State vs. Oklahoma State 17.5 Florida State by 13.3 (29.1 - 15.9) 82.1% Oklahoma State Florida State by 19.3 Florida State XXX
Sat 9:00 PM ESPN Wisconsin vs. LSU -5 LSU by 3.2 (29.2 - 26.1) 61.9% Wisconsin LSU by 4.6 Wisconsin
Sat 10:30 PM CBSSN Washington at Hawaii 17 Washington by 13.8 (35.0 - 21.1) 83.0% Hawaii Washington by 25.2 Washington XXX
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning New Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Diff?
Sun 7:00 PM SECN Utah State at Tennessee -6 Tennessee by 0.9 (15.6 - 14.7) 56.5% Utah State Utah State by 3.8 Utah State
Sun 7:30 PM FS1 SMU at Baylor -33 Baylor by 20.5 (44.0 - 23.5) 92.7% SMU Baylor by 24.7 SMU
Mon 8:00 PM ESPN Miami-FL at Louisville -3.5 Louisville by 8.6 (41.8 - 33.2) 73.4% Louisville Louisville by 7.3 Louisville

FCS Games

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Wed 7:00 PM ESPNU Abilene Christian at Georgia State -4 Abilene Christian by 0.8 (28.4 - 27.7) 56.2% Abilene Christian
Thurs 7:00 PM BTN Eastern Illinois at Minnesota -16.5 Minnesota by 8.4 (29.6 - 21.1) 73.1% Eastern Illinois
Thurs 7:00 PM ESPN3 Howard at Akron -21.5 Akron by 8.8 (30.3 - 21.5) 73.8% Howard
Thurs 7:00 PM ESPN3 Presbyterian at Northern Illinois -41 Northern Illinois by 33.9 (47.1 - 13.2) 99.0% Presbyterian
Thurs 7:00 PM ESPN3 Chattanooga at Central Michigan -12 Central Michigan by 1.7 (32.1 - 30.4) 58.4% Chattanooga
Thurs 7:30 PM Pac-12 Idaho State at Utah -42.5 Utah by 23.7 (37.4 - 13.7) 96.4% Idaho State
Thurs 8:00 PM ESPN3 Cal Poly at New Mexico State 4 Cal Poly by 9.6 (35.9 - 26.3) 75.4% Cal Poly
Thurs 10:00 PM ESPN3 North Dakota at San Jose State -24.5 San Jose State by 11.1 (37.7 - 26.6) 78.2% North Dakota
Thurs 10:30 PM Pac-12 Weber State at Arizona State -46.5 Arizona State by 30.5 (46.9 - 16.4) 99.0% Weber State
Fri 7:30 PM ESPN3 Villanova at Syracuse -14.5 Syracuse by 9.2 (31.0 - 21.8) 74.7% Villanova
Fri 7:30 PM BTN Jacksonville State at Michigan State -32.5 Michigan State by 23.7 (33.2 - 9.6) 96.4% Jacksonville State
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Delaware at Pittsburgh -24 Pittsburgh by 16.3 (34.3 - 18.0) 86.9% Delaware
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 North Dakota State at Iowa State -3 Iowa State by 7.8 (33.0 - 25.2) 72.0% Iowa State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News Indiana State at Indiana -23.5 Indiana by 18.4 (46.0 - 27.6) 90.0% Indiana State
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Northern Iowa at Iowa -16.5 Iowa by 17.8 (33.2 - 15.4) 89.1% Iowa
Sat 12:00 PM SECN UT Martin at Kentucky -19.5 Kentucky by 8.5 (34.3 - 25.8) 73.3% UT Martin
Sat 12:05 PM BTN Youngstown State at Illinois -11.5 Illinois by 6.6 (31.4 - 24.7) 69.5% Youngstown State
Sat 12:30 PM FSN affiliates/
ESPN3
Wofford at Georgia Tech N/A Georgia Tech by 20.3 (42.1 - 21.8) 92.5% N/A
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Colgate at Ball State -25.5 Ball State by 16.2 (39.5 - 23.3) 86.7% Colgate
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Nicholls State at Air Force -20.5 Air Force by 9.7 (39.8 - 30.1) 75.5% Nicholls State
Sat 3:00 PM MWC Video Southern Utah at Nevada -23 Nevada by 10.6 (39.6 - 29.0) 77.2% Southern Utah
Sat 3:30 PM BTN James Madison at Maryland -22 Maryland by 14.1 (31.7 - 17.6) 83.4% James Madison
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Duquesne at Buffalo -27.5 Buffalo by 13.8 (32.5 - 18.7) 83.0% Duquesne
Sat 3:30 PM ASN Hampton at Old Dominion -30 Old Dominion by 12.0 (32.9 - 20.9) 79.9% Hampton
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU South Dakota State at Missouri -29.5 Missouri by 20.5 (36.4 - 16.0) 92.7% South Dakota State
Sat 4:00 PM RSRM / RSNW Montana at Wyoming -7 Wyoming by 0.7 (30.4 - 29.7) 56.0% Montana
Sat 4:00 PM Pac-12 Portland State at Oregon State -31 Oregon State by 18.5 (38.7 - 20.2) 90.1% Portland State
Sat 4:00 PM Pac-12 UC Davis at Stanford -35.5 Stanford by 32.6 (41.3 - 8.7) 99.0% UC Davis
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN News William & Mary at Virginia Tech -20 Virginia Tech by 18.8 (28.4 - 9.5) 90.6% William & Mary
Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 Elon at Duke -33 Duke by 22.6 (44.3 - 21.7) 95.2% Elon
Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 Liberty at North Carolina -29.5 North Carolina by 18.7 (38.3 - 19.7) 90.3% Liberty
Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 Morgan State at Eastern Michigan -15.5 Eastern Michigan by 15.8 (41.5 - 25.7) 86.1% Eastern Michigan
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 New Hampshire at Toledo 2.5 Toledo by 11.4 (35.5 - 24.1) 78.7% Toledo
Sat 7:00 PM Savannah State at Middle Tennessee -40 Middle Tennessee by 24.9 (34.3 - 9.4) 97.7% Savannah State
Sat 7:00 PM ASN Bethune-Cookman at Florida International 4.5 Bethune-Cookman by 1.1 (26.3 - 25.2) 56.9% Florida International
Sat 7:00 PM CBSSN Northern Arizona at San Diego State -20 San Diego State by 8.1 (27.0 - 18.9) 72.5% Northern Arizona
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Austin Peay at Memphis -32 Memphis by 21.6 (31.9 - 10.3) 94.0% Austin Peay
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Western Carolina at South Florida -23 South Florida by 15.0 (29.9 - 14.9) 84.8% Western Carolina
Sat 7:00 PM FSN affiliates Samford at TCU -34 TCU by 18.3 (28.3 - 10.0) 89.8% Samford
Sat 7:00 PM FSN affiliates Central Arkansas at Texas Tech -29.5 Texas Tech by 16.6 (42.6 - 26.0) 87.4% Central Arkansas
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Montana State at Arkansas State -6 Arkansas State by 3.9 (25.7 - 21.8) 63.6% Montana State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Southern at UL-Lafayette -38 UL-Lafayette by 16.8 (39.1 - 22.2) 87.7% Southern
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 UAPB at Texas State -30.5 Texas State by 20.3 (34.0 - 13.7) 92.4% UAPB
Sat 7:10 PM $Ulive Stephen F. Austin at Kansas State -36.5 Kansas State by 24.2 (43.9 - 19.7) 96.9% Stephen F. Austin
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN News NC Central at East Carolina -40 East Carolina by 26.7 (41.4 - 14.7) 99.0% NC Central
Sat 10:30 PM Pac-12 South Dakota at Oregon -51 Oregon by 30.9 (46.5 - 15.6) 99.0% South Dakota