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Central Florida 32, East Carolina 30
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Central Florida | East Carolina | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 73 | 76 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 96.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 32.5 | 32.2 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 15 | 15 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
9 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.56 | 6.20 | 4.65 |
| Leverage Rate** | 63.0% | 68.6% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.488 | 0.497 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Central Florida | East Carolina | |
| Total | 24.7 | 25.8 | |
| Rushing | 8.9 | 4.1 | |
| Passing | 15.7 | 21.7 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Central Florida | East Carolina | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 39.7% | 47.1% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 36.8% | 38.1% | 43.2% |
| Passing (close) | 42.9% | 51.0% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 43.5% | 50.0% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 33.3% | 40.9% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Central Florida | East Carolina | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.85 | 0.60 | 0.86 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.64 | 0.50 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 1.05 | 0.63 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.96 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.60 | 0.54 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Central Florida | East Carolina | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 1.90 | 1.18 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 9.5% | 17.7% | 7.7% |
| Turnovers | Central Florida | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 4.5 | 15.2 |
| Turnover Margin | Central Florida +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Central Florida +0.15 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Central Florida +1.85 | |
| TO Points Margin | Central Florida +10.7 points | |
| Situational | Central Florida | East Carolina |
| Q1 S&P | 0.404 | 0.584 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.615 | 0.390 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.467 | 0.353 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.477 | 0.686 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.588 | 0.549 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.457 | 0.576 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.339 | 0.483 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Central Florida by 9.6 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Central Florida by 2 | ||
This one wins the coveted "most confusing stats of the week" award. Field position was mostly a wash, but ECU beat UCF in the success rate battle pretty handily ... and UCF created nearly twice as many scoring opportunities as ECU. And UCF also needed both turnovers and a Hail Mary to win because the Knights stalled out almost every time they got a whiff of the ECU end zone.
UCF earned the win, blew it, then got lucky, basically.