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Study Hall: UCF 32, ECU 30

James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

Central Florida 32, East Carolina 30

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Central Florida East Carolina Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 73 76
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 96.0%
Avg Starting FP 32.5 32.2 30.0
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
9 5
Points Per Opportunity 3.56 6.20 4.65
Leverage Rate** 63.0% 68.6% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.488 0.497 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Central Florida East Carolina
Total 24.7 25.8
Rushing 8.9 4.1
Passing 15.7 21.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Central Florida East Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 39.7% 47.1% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 36.8% 38.1% 43.2%
Passing (close) 42.9% 51.0% 40.3%
Standard Downs 43.5% 50.0% 47.0%
Passing Downs 33.3% 40.9% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Central Florida East Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.85 0.60 0.86
Rushing (close) 0.64 0.50 0.74
Passing (close) 1.05 0.63 0.99
Standard Downs 0.96 0.62 0.77
Passing Downs 0.60 0.54 1.13
Line Stats Central Florida East Carolina Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.90 1.18 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 6.3% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 9.5% 17.7% 7.7%
Turnovers Central Florida East Carolina
Turnovers 1 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.5 15.2
Turnover Margin Central Florida +2
Exp. TO Margin Central Florida +0.15
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Central Florida +1.85
TO Points Margin Central Florida +10.7 points
Situational Central Florida East Carolina
Q1 S&P 0.404 0.584
Q2 S&P 0.615 0.390
Q3 S&P 0.467 0.353
Q4 S&P 0.477 0.686
1st Down S&P 0.588 0.549
2nd Down S&P 0.457 0.576
3rd Down S&P 0.339 0.483
Projected Scoring Margin: Central Florida by 9.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Central Florida by 2

This one wins the coveted "most confusing stats of the week" award. Field position was mostly a wash, but ECU beat UCF in the success rate battle pretty handily ... and UCF created nearly twice as many scoring opportunities as ECU. And UCF also needed both turnovers and a Hail Mary to win because the Knights stalled out almost every time they got a whiff of the ECU end zone.

UCF earned the win, blew it, then got lucky, basically.