Central Florida 32, East Carolina 30
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|Basics||Central Florida||East Carolina||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||96.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||32.5||32.2||30.0|
|Points Per Opportunity||3.56||6.20||4.65|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Central Florida||East Carolina|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Central Florida||East Carolina||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Central Florida||East Carolina||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Central Florida||East Carolina||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||1.90||1.18||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||6.3%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||9.5%||17.7%||7.7%|
|Turnovers||Central Florida||East Carolina|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||4.5||15.2|
|Turnover Margin||Central Florida +2|
|Exp. TO Margin||Central Florida +0.15|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Central Florida +1.85|
|TO Points Margin||Central Florida +10.7 points|
|Situational||Central Florida||East Carolina|
|1st Down S&P||0.588||0.549|
|2nd Down S&P||0.457||0.576|
|3rd Down S&P||0.339||0.483|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Central Florida by 9.6|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Central Florida by 2|
This one wins the coveted "most confusing stats of the week" award. Field position was mostly a wash, but ECU beat UCF in the success rate battle pretty handily ... and UCF created nearly twice as many scoring opportunities as ECU. And UCF also needed both turnovers and a Hail Mary to win because the Knights stalled out almost every time they got a whiff of the ECU end zone.
UCF earned the win, blew it, then got lucky, basically.