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Study Hall: Boise State 28, Fresno State 14

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Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Boise State 28, Fresno State 14

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Basics Boise State Fresno State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 49 87
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 69.1%
Avg Starting FP 25.5 29.7 30.0
Possessions 11 13
Scoring Opportunities*
3 5
Points Per Opportunity 7.00 2.80 4.65
Leverage Rate** 70.5% 48.0% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.555 0.346 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Boise State Fresno State
Total 20.5 21.7
Rushing 12.5 5.3
Passing 8.0 16.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Boise State Fresno State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 40.9% 20.0% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 46.4% 10.0% 43.2%
Passing (close) 31.3% 26.7% 40.3%
Standard Downs 45.2% 16.7% 47.0%
Passing Downs 30.8% 23.1% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Boise State Fresno State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.14 0.93 0.86
Rushing (close) 0.96 0.54 0.74
Passing (close) 1.60 1.03 0.99
Standard Downs 1.06 1.10 0.77
Passing Downs 1.42 0.81 1.13
Line Stats Boise State Fresno State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.05 1.41 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 12.5% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 14.3% 7.7%
Turnovers Boise State Fresno State
Turnovers 0 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 16.8
Turnover Margin Boise State +3
Exp. TO Margin Boise State +1.03
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Boise State +1.97
TO Points Margin Boise State +16.8 points
Situational Boise State Fresno State
Q1 S&P 0.666 0.372
Q2 S&P 0.569 0.237
Q3 S&P 0.593 0.481
Q4 S&P N/A 0.457
1st Down S&P 0.449 0.461
2nd Down S&P 0.660 0.240
3rd Down S&P 0.522 0.511
Projected Scoring Margin: Boise State by 15.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Boise State by 14

Weird game. I saw Boise State was up 21-0 early in the second, and I stopped paying attention for the most part. So did Boise State, apparently. Their last seven drives: three-and-out, three-and-out, touchdown, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out. The Broncos had zero successful plays in the fourth quarter, but since Fresno State couldn't finish drives -- in five scoring opportunities, the Bulldogs scored twice, turned the ball over on downs once, missed a field goal, and threw an interception -- it didn't matter.