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Study Hall: Florida State 37, Georgia Tech 35

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Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Florida State 37, Georgia Tech 35

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Basics Florida State Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 63 73
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 33.0 22.1 30.0
Possessions 10 10
Scoring Opportunities*
8 5
Points Per Opportunity 4.62 7.00 4.65
Leverage Rate** 79.4% 76.7% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.628 0.579 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida State Georgia Tech
Total 32.2 30.9
Rushing 11.3 23.5
Passing 20.9 7.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida State Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 55.6% 52.1% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 48.5% 50.9% 43.2%
Passing (close) 63.3% 57.1% 40.3%
Standard Downs 58.0% 57.1% 47.0%
Passing Downs 46.2% 35.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida State Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.92 0.81 0.86
Rushing (close) 0.71 0.78 0.74
Passing (close) 1.10 0.92 0.99
Standard Downs 0.82 0.79 0.77
Passing Downs 1.39 0.94 1.13
Line Stats Florida State Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.34 3.61 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.7%
Turnovers Florida State Georgia Tech
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 2.0
Turnover Margin Florida State +1
Exp. TO Margin Georgia Tech +0.66
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Florida State +1.66
TO Points Margin Florida State +2.0 points
Situational Florida State Georgia Tech
Q1 S&P 0.754 0.718
Q2 S&P 0.801 0.592
Q3 S&P 0.577 0.493
Q4 S&P 0.415 0.514
1st Down S&P 0.670 0.561
2nd Down S&P 0.527 0.647
3rd Down S&P 0.682 0.507
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 3.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 2

Florida State's offense is and will always be driven by the pass with Jameis Winston behind center, and he certainly looked like a Heisman winner against GT: 21-for-30, 309 yards, three scores, no picks, no sacks. But damn, Dalvin Cook (31 carries, 177 yards). With the kind of running game FSU had on Saturday, the 'Noles would be ranked first or second in Off. F/+ instead of sixth.

Of course, the Georgia Tech defense stinks. (At 58th in Def. F/+, the Jackets have the worst defense among any team in the overall F/+ top 38.) And of course, the Georgia Tech offense nearly managed to render FSU's offensive output moot. But after Tech sliced through the Seminoles for three long, mostly easy touchdown drives to start the game, the 'Noles stiffened and allowed only one score in the next five possessions. That was enough for Winston, Cook, and company. Barely.