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Florida State 37, Georgia Tech 35
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Florida State | Georgia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 63 | 73 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 33.0 | 22.1 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 10 | 10 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
8 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.62 | 7.00 | 4.65 |
| Leverage Rate** | 79.4% | 76.7% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.628 | 0.579 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Florida State | Georgia Tech | |
| Total | 32.2 | 30.9 | |
| Rushing | 11.3 | 23.5 | |
| Passing | 20.9 | 7.4 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Florida State | Georgia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 55.6% | 52.1% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 48.5% | 50.9% | 43.2% |
| Passing (close) | 63.3% | 57.1% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 58.0% | 57.1% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 46.2% | 35.3% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Florida State | Georgia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.92 | 0.81 | 0.86 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.71 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 1.10 | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.82 | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.39 | 0.94 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Florida State | Georgia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.34 | 3.61 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Turnovers | Florida State | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Florida State +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Georgia Tech +0.66 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Florida State +1.66 | |
| TO Points Margin | Florida State +2.0 points | |
| Situational | Florida State | Georgia Tech |
| Q1 S&P | 0.754 | 0.718 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.801 | 0.592 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.577 | 0.493 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.415 | 0.514 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.670 | 0.561 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.527 | 0.647 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.682 | 0.507 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 3.3 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 2 | ||
Florida State's offense is and will always be driven by the pass with Jameis Winston behind center, and he certainly looked like a Heisman winner against GT: 21-for-30, 309 yards, three scores, no picks, no sacks. But damn, Dalvin Cook (31 carries, 177 yards). With the kind of running game FSU had on Saturday, the 'Noles would be ranked first or second in Off. F/+ instead of sixth.
Of course, the Georgia Tech defense stinks. (At 58th in Def. F/+, the Jackets have the worst defense among any team in the overall F/+ top 38.) And of course, the Georgia Tech offense nearly managed to render FSU's offensive output moot. But after Tech sliced through the Seminoles for three long, mostly easy touchdown drives to start the game, the 'Noles stiffened and allowed only one score in the next five possessions. That was enough for Winston, Cook, and company. Barely.
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