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Oregon 51, Arizona 13
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Arizona | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 61 | 94 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 52.9% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 31.8 | 36.4 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 15 | 16 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
4 | 11 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.50 | 4.64 | 4.65 |
| Leverage Rate** | 48.0% | 64.9% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.203 | 0.532 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Arizona | Oregon | |
| Total | 14.3 | 42.9 | |
| Rushing | 8.1 | 22.8 | |
| Passing | 6.2 | 20.2 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Arizona | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 16.0% | 42.1% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 10.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% |
| Passing (close) | 20.0% | 33.3% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 25.0% | 48.7% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 7.7% | 30.0% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Arizona | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.38 | 0.98 | 0.86 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.79 | 0.93 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 0.24 | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.56 | 0.80 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | -0.18 | 1.52 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Arizona | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 1.73 | 4.18 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 33.3% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Turnovers | Arizona | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 9.5 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Oregon +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | +0 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Oregon +2 | |
| TO Points Margin | Oregon +9.5 points | |
| Situational | Arizona | Oregon |
| Q1 S&P | 0.363 | 0.451 |
| Q2 S&P | -0.014 | 0.603 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.483 | 0.756 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.477 | 0.477 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.425 | 0.510 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.491 | 0.638 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.167 | 0.615 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon by 38.1 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon by 38 | ||
Oregon's defense was underrated for most of the 2009-12 window, but I'm not sure the Ducks have ever had a more defensively dominant performance (against a good offense) than this one. Arizona fumbled its first kickoff, then went punt, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, turnover on downs. If Oregon hadn't struggled early in terms of finishing drives, the Wildcats could have been down 50 by the time they first scored.
Play more defense like this, Ducks, and you'll end up with the national title. The offense struggled here and there, and it couldn't have mattered less.
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