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Study Hall: Oregon 51, Arizona 13

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Oregon 51, Arizona 13

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Basics Arizona Oregon Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 61 94
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 52.9%
Avg Starting FP 31.8 36.4 30.0
Possessions 15 16
Scoring Opportunities*
4 11
Points Per Opportunity 3.50 4.64 4.65
Leverage Rate** 48.0% 64.9% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.203 0.532 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona Oregon
Total 14.3 42.9
Rushing 8.1 22.8
Passing 6.2 20.2
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona Oregon Nat'l Avg
All (close) 16.0% 42.1% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 10.0% 50.0% 43.2%
Passing (close) 20.0% 33.3% 40.3%
Standard Downs 25.0% 48.7% 47.0%
Passing Downs 7.7% 30.0% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona Oregon Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.38 0.98 0.86
Rushing (close) 0.79 0.93 0.74
Passing (close) 0.24 1.06 0.99
Standard Downs 0.56 0.80 0.77
Passing Downs -0.18 1.52 1.13
Line Stats Arizona Oregon Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.73 4.18 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 33.3% 0.0% 7.7%
Turnovers Arizona Oregon
Turnovers 2 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 9.5 0.0
Turnover Margin Oregon +2
Exp. TO Margin +0
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Oregon +2
TO Points Margin Oregon +9.5 points
Situational Arizona Oregon
Q1 S&P 0.363 0.451
Q2 S&P -0.014 0.603
Q3 S&P 0.483 0.756
Q4 S&P 0.477 0.477
1st Down S&P 0.425 0.510
2nd Down S&P 0.491 0.638
3rd Down S&P 0.167 0.615
Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon by 38.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon by 38

Oregon's defense was underrated for most of the 2009-12 window, but I'm not sure the Ducks have ever had a more defensively dominant performance (against a good offense) than this one. Arizona fumbled its first kickoff, then went punt, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, turnover on downs. If Oregon hadn't struggled early in terms of finishing drives, the Wildcats could have been down 50 by the time they first scored.

Play more defense like this, Ducks, and you'll end up with the national title. The offense struggled here and there, and it couldn't have mattered less.