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Study Hall: Oklahoma State 38, Oklahoma 35

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Oklahoma State 38, Oklahoma 35

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Oklahoma Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 80 61
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 32.2 32.3 30.0
Possessions 15 13
Scoring Opportunities*
7 5
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 6.20 4.65
Leverage Rate** 71.3% 65.6% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.509 0.551 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oklahoma Oklahoma State
Total 29.5 26.6
Rushing 22.7 10.0
Passing 6.8 16.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Oklahoma Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 41.3% 44.3% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 41.0% 54.2% 43.2%
Passing (close) 42.1% 37.8% 40.3%
Standard Downs 49.1% 57.5% 47.0%
Passing Downs 21.7% 19.1% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oklahoma Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.89 0.98 0.86
Rushing (close) 0.91 0.77 0.74
Passing (close) 0.85 1.19 0.99
Standard Downs 0.81 0.81 0.77
Passing Downs 1.35 2.00 1.13
Line Stats Oklahoma Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.55 3.42 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 28.6% 4.8% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 6.3% 7.7%
Turnovers Oklahoma Oklahoma State
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.3 2.8
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Oklahoma State +0.58
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Oklahoma +0.58
TO Points Margin Oklahoma State +1.5 points
Situational Oklahoma Oklahoma State
Q1 S&P 0.583 0.645
Q2 S&P 0.702 0.554
Q3 S&P 0.357 0.288
Q4 S&P 0.446 0.699
1st Down S&P 0.474 0.595
2nd Down S&P 0.562 0.515
3rd Down S&P 0.523 0.567
Projected Scoring Margin: Oklahoma by 1.5
Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 3

Honestly, I stopped paying attention when Zack Sanchez picked Mason Rudolph off with three minutes left. Then I saw the highlight.

Tyreek Hill had just fair caught a punt at the OSU 15, but OSU committed a running-into-the-kicker penalty. I guess I SORT of understand the logic of kicking again -- it'll kill another 10-15 seconds, and there's only a minute left. But Hill is a terrifying return man, and OSU still only had a minute to go 85 yards with no timeouts. From a risk management perspective, that's pretty close to even, I think. Still...

...damn. That's one hell of a way to (eventually) lose a game. Your star running back gets hurt, you blow a 14-point lead in the last five minutes, and you lose in OT. Oklahoma has lost four games this season, and pick sixes, punt returns, and missed chip-shot field goals have played prevalent roles. On paper, they've been about as good as projected. But that's not much consolation, I would assume.