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College football projections: Week 15 F/+ picks

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Last week was ... odd. I guess they're all odd in their own way.

ATS Week 14 2014 Season
"NEW" Method 34-26-1 (57%) 356-380-16 (48%)
"OLD" Method 34-26-1 (57%) 351-340-15 (51%)

Did great against Vegas! Hooray!

Straight Up Week 14 2014 Season
Teams with 50-59% chance of winning 4-5 (44%) 31-40 (44%)
Teams with 60-69% chance of winning 3-7 (30%) 104-74 (58%)
Teams with 70-79% chance of winning 9-2 (82%) 138-46 (75%)
Teams with 80-89% chance of winning 12-4 (75%) 161-39 (81%)
Teams with 90-99% chance of winning 14-1 (93%) 156-15 (91%)

Did far less good regarding win probabilities! Boo! It's kind of funny that that's even possible -- doing great in one and poorly in the other -- but here we are. (And of course it's possible: these numbers spent most of the first half of the season doing that in the opposite way.) Regardless, I'm just ready to run out the clock and redraw the ratings and win probabilities.

It's strange the things I look forward to...

Week 15

Here's your weekly disclaimer: the margins are all that matter. The projected scores are for awful, i.e. for entertainment value only.

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN Central Florida at East Carolina -7 East Carolina by 4.8 (31.2 - 26.4) 62.4% Central Florida East Carolina by 3.1 Central Florida
Fri 7:00 PM ESPN2 Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois -6.5 Northern Illinois by 13.4 (45.6 - 32.3) 72.2% Northern Illinois Northern Illinois by 8.0 Northern Illinois
Fri 9:00 PM Fox Arizona vs. Oregon -14.5 Oregon by 27.2 (54.0 - 26.8) 84.8% Oregon Oregon by 16.0 Oregon
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Houston at Cincinnati -7 Cincinnati by 19.1 (39.2 - 20.1) 80.0% Cincinnati Cincinnati by 12.7 Cincinnati
Sat 12:00 PM ABC Iowa State at TCU -34 TCU by 65.2 (68.4 - 3.3) 98.6% TCU TCU by 39.4 TCU
Sat 12:00 PM CBSSN SMU at Connecticut -11.5 Connecticut by 26.3 (25.3 - -1.0) 89.1% Connecticut Connecticut by 19.7 Connecticut
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Louisiana Tech vs. Marshall -11 Marshall by 22.0 (30.4 - 8.4) 83.3% Marshall Marshall by 14.9 Marshall
Sat 3:30 PM FS1 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma -21 Oklahoma by 49.2 (56.8 - 7.6) 97.8% Oklahoma Oklahoma by 31.9 Oklahoma
Sat 4:00 PM CBS Alabama vs. Missouri 14.5 Alabama by 29.3 (33.4 - 4.1) 89.5% Alabama Alabama by 20.0 Alabama
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN2 Temple at Tulane 3 Temple by 12.0 (15.5 - 3.5) 73.3% Temple Temple by 8.5 Temple
Sat 7:45 PM ESPN Kansas State at Baylor -7.5 Baylor by 14.4 (39.7 - 25.4) 73.1% Baylor Baylor by 8.6 Baylor
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Florida State vs. Georgia Tech 4.5 Florida State by 1.5 (41.2 - 39.7) 57.9% Georgia Tech Florida State by 1.0 Georgia Tech
Sat 8:17 PM Fox Wisconsin vs. Ohio State 4 Ohio State by 9.6 (34.9 - 25.3) 68.7% Ohio State Ohio State by 6.1 Ohio State
Sat 10:00 PM CBS Fresno State at Boise State -22 Boise State by 55.6 (59.3 - 3.7) 98.2% Boise State Boise State by 33.4 Boise State