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Last week was ... odd. I guess they're all odd in their own way.
| ATS | Week 14 | 2014 Season |
| "NEW" Method | 34-26-1 (57%) | 356-380-16 (48%) |
| "OLD" Method | 34-26-1 (57%) | 351-340-15 (51%) |
Did great against Vegas! Hooray!
| Straight Up | Week 14 | 2014 Season |
| Teams with 50-59% chance of winning | 4-5 (44%) | 31-40 (44%) |
| Teams with 60-69% chance of winning | 3-7 (30%) | 104-74 (58%) |
| Teams with 70-79% chance of winning | 9-2 (82%) | 138-46 (75%) |
| Teams with 80-89% chance of winning | 12-4 (75%) | 161-39 (81%) |
| Teams with 90-99% chance of winning | 14-1 (93%) | 156-15 (91%) |
Did far less good regarding win probabilities! Boo! It's kind of funny that that's even possible -- doing great in one and poorly in the other -- but here we are. (And of course it's possible: these numbers spent most of the first half of the season doing that in the opposite way.) Regardless, I'm just ready to run out the clock and redraw the ratings and win probabilities.
It's strange the things I look forward to...
Week 15
Here's your weekly disclaimer: the margins are all that matter. The projected scores are for awful, i.e. for entertainment value only.
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN | Central Florida at East Carolina | -7 | East Carolina by 4.8 (31.2 - 26.4) | 62.4% | Central Florida | East Carolina by 3.1 | Central Florida | |
| Fri | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois | -6.5 | Northern Illinois by 13.4 (45.6 - 32.3) | 72.2% | Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois by 8.0 | Northern Illinois | |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | Fox | Arizona vs. Oregon | -14.5 | Oregon by 27.2 (54.0 - 26.8) | 84.8% | Oregon | Oregon by 16.0 | Oregon | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Houston at Cincinnati | -7 | Cincinnati by 19.1 (39.2 - 20.1) | 80.0% | Cincinnati | Cincinnati by 12.7 | Cincinnati | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC | Iowa State at TCU | -34 | TCU by 65.2 (68.4 - 3.3) | 98.6% | TCU | TCU by 39.4 | TCU | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CBSSN | SMU at Connecticut | -11.5 | Connecticut by 26.3 (25.3 - -1.0) | 89.1% | Connecticut | Connecticut by 19.7 | Connecticut | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Louisiana Tech vs. Marshall | -11 | Marshall by 22.0 (30.4 - 8.4) | 83.3% | Marshall | Marshall by 14.9 | Marshall | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | FS1 | Oklahoma State at Oklahoma | -21 | Oklahoma by 49.2 (56.8 - 7.6) | 97.8% | Oklahoma | Oklahoma by 31.9 | Oklahoma | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | CBS | Alabama vs. Missouri | 14.5 | Alabama by 29.3 (33.4 - 4.1) | 89.5% | Alabama | Alabama by 20.0 | Alabama | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN2 | Temple at Tulane | 3 | Temple by 12.0 (15.5 - 3.5) | 73.3% | Temple | Temple by 8.5 | Temple | |
| Sat | 7:45 PM | ESPN | Kansas State at Baylor | -7.5 | Baylor by 14.4 (39.7 - 25.4) | 73.1% | Baylor | Baylor by 8.6 | Baylor | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Florida State vs. Georgia Tech | 4.5 | Florida State by 1.5 (41.2 - 39.7) | 57.9% | Georgia Tech | Florida State by 1.0 | Georgia Tech | |
| Sat | 8:17 PM | Fox | Wisconsin vs. Ohio State | 4 | Ohio State by 9.6 (34.9 - 25.3) | 68.7% | Ohio State | Ohio State by 6.1 | Ohio State | |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | CBS | Fresno State at Boise State | -22 | Boise State by 55.6 (59.3 - 3.7) | 98.2% | Boise State | Boise State by 33.4 | Boise State |
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