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NC State 35, North Carolina 7
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | NC State | North Carolina | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 69 | 63 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 70.5% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 21.4 | 24.9 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 11 | 10 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 2 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 7.00 | 3.50 | 4.66 |
| Leverage Rate** | 80.9% | 56.5% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.644 | 0.322 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | NC State | North Carolina | |
| Total | 29.5 | 11.1 | |
| Rushing | 22.3 | 2.7 | |
| Passing | 7.2 | 8.5 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | NC State | North Carolina | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 59.6% | 30.4% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 61.1% | 31.6% | 43.3% |
| Passing (close) | 54.6% | 29.6% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 65.8% | 30.8% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 33.3% | 30.0% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | NC State | North Carolina | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.84 | 0.39 | 0.86 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.85 | 0.38 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 0.78 | 0.40 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.86 | 0.28 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.64 | 0.54 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | NC State | North Carolina | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.89 | 2.36 | 2.93 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 14.3% | 7.1% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 25.0% | 15.4% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | NC State | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 2.9 |
| Turnover Margin | NC State +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | NC State +1.61 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | NC State +0.39 | |
| TO Points Margin | NC State +2.9 points | |
| Situational | NC State | North Carolina |
| Q1 S&P | 0.599 | 0.400 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.688 | 0.303 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.710 | 0.165 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.387 | 0.533 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.635 | 0.356 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.460 | 0.294 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.749 | 0.473 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: NC State by 21.3 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: NC State by 28 | ||
I, uh ... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Football's a strange game. NC State had certainly looked pretty good in Week 12, knocking around Wake Forest like you're supposed to. But North Carolina had looked like a top-30 team or so for most of the last month-plus. And then only one team showed up on Saturday ... and it wasn't the home (and smoking hot) team. UNC couldn't even pretend to stop the NC State run and couldn't stay out of passing downs. That's typically not a winning combination for a rivalry game.
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