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Study Hall: N.C. State 35, North Carolina 7

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Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

NC State 35, North Carolina 7

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Basics NC State North Carolina Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 69 63
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 70.5%
Avg Starting FP 21.4 24.9 30.0
Possessions 11 10
Scoring Opportunities*
5 2
Points Per Opportunity 7.00 3.50 4.66
Leverage Rate** 80.9% 56.5% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.644 0.322 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) NC State North Carolina
Total 29.5 11.1
Rushing 22.3 2.7
Passing 7.2 8.5
Success Rate (what's this?) NC State North Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 59.6% 30.4% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 61.1% 31.6% 43.3%
Passing (close) 54.6% 29.6% 40.3%
Standard Downs 65.8% 30.8% 47.0%
Passing Downs 33.3% 30.0% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) NC State North Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.84 0.39 0.86
Rushing (close) 0.85 0.38 0.74
Passing (close) 0.78 0.40 0.99
Standard Downs 0.86 0.28 0.77
Passing Downs 0.64 0.54 1.14
Line Stats NC State North Carolina Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.89 2.36 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 14.3% 7.1% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 25.0% 15.4% 7.6%
Turnovers NC State North Carolina
Turnovers 0 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 2.9
Turnover Margin NC State +2
Exp. TO Margin NC State +1.61
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) NC State +0.39
TO Points Margin NC State +2.9 points
Situational NC State North Carolina
Q1 S&P 0.599 0.400
Q2 S&P 0.688 0.303
Q3 S&P 0.710 0.165
Q4 S&P 0.387 0.533
1st Down S&P 0.635 0.356
2nd Down S&P 0.460 0.294
3rd Down S&P 0.749 0.473
Projected Scoring Margin: NC State by 21.3
Actual Scoring Margin: NC State by 28

I, uh ... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Football's a strange game. NC State had certainly looked pretty good in Week 12, knocking around Wake Forest like you're supposed to. But North Carolina had looked like a top-30 team or so for most of the last month-plus. And then only one team showed up on Saturday ... and it wasn't the home (and smoking hot) team. UNC couldn't even pretend to stop the NC State run and couldn't stay out of passing downs. That's typically not a winning combination for a rivalry game.